The 2023 NBA draft is officially over, and while the opening pick has basically been guaranteed for a month, there were still plenty of interesting storylines to think about. After weeks of debate, the Charlotte Hornets settled on Brandon Miller for 2nd overall. The Portland Trail Blazers considered trades but ultimately chose to remain at No. 3 without changing their current roster. Amen and Ausar Thompson made NBA history by becoming the first twins to finish in the top 5 of the same draft when selected by the Rockets and Pistons, respectively.
But now the draft is officially in the books, and after months of speculation, we finally know how all 58 picks turned out. So with tonight’s results in mind, who won and lost the 2023 NBA draft? Here are a few tips for each trail.
What did you expect? San Antonio just picked arguably the best candidate for promotion to the NBA since LeBron James 20 years ago. There might not have been much excitement for Spurs, but the signing of Victor Wembanyama is still the single biggest win by a team on Thursday. His presence changes everything for a franchise that has now missed the playoffs for four straight years.
Before Wembanyama, the Spurs were largely directionless. They finally decided on complete relegation last summer when they traded first-time All-Star Dejounte Murray to the Atlanta Hawks and slipped down the league table. That gave room for a number of interesting role players like Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan to develop, but none of them emerged as the type of player who could lead Spurs to a championship. Wembanyama does. Tim Duncan came on the scene 26 years ago and led the Spurs to five championships. Now it’s Wembanyama’s turn to lead Spurs to greatness.
Loser: Charlotte Hornets
Scoot Henderson has been the second-best contender in this class since meaningfully following the rankings. Reporting at the time suggested that just about every team attempting to break into the top three in this class, particularly the New Orleans Pelicans, did so with Henderson in mind. There is no consensus when it comes to drafts, but Henderson came as close as possible to consensus #2 in that category. But when the Hornets submitted their card Thursday, they submitted Brandon Miller’s name, not Henderson’s.
Miller has cleaner positional adjustment. Wings are the rarest player in the NBA, and Miller should line up almost immediately as an all-around small forward who can improve his position when needed. But a Hornets team with just two longtime goalies in LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams just wasn’t willing to prioritize fitness over talent at this stage of its rebuild.
They should have emphasized the talent and taken Henderson, and most in the league knew that. Generally speaking, when a team that’s made the playoffs twice in the last 13 years defies conventional wisdom, we should probably trust the rest of the league. Michael Jordan has hit a number of disappointing draft picks during his tenure as the Hornets’ owner, and his last big draft pick before handing the team to Gabe Plotkin and Rick Schnall was a sucker.
Winner: Portland Trail Blazers
Charlotte’s loss was Portland’s win on Thursday. Just like Charlotte, Miller could have easily fit into a Blazers team that’s currently packed with guards. After leading Alabama to one of its best seasons in recent memory, it wouldn’t have been hard to imagine Miller helping Damian Lillard back into the playoffs sooner rather than later. But opportunities to recruit truly talented franchise-changing talent are so rare in the NBA that even if they’re not quite a good fit, they’re worth embracing.
The Blazers definitely have too many guards. Finding enough minutes for Henderson, Lillard, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons will be a challenge if all four remain in the opening night roster. But at this point, we’re judging the draft, not opening night expectations. Five years from now, the Hornets will likely have a very good small forward, but the Blazers could have an All-NBA guard. This is the highest draft pick Portland has made since picking Greg Oden in 2007. They might never have had another chance to make that high draft pick, and ultimately they took that opportunity to land a prospect who could help them compete for the next decade or more. There are definitely still questions to be answered, but the Blazers have a candidate who would likely have ended up #1 overall in a normal draft class at #3. This is an overwhelming victory.
Had the Blazers gone from there, they would have been in great shape. But they also owned a second first-rounder through the New York Knicks and put him in Iowa’s Kris Murray, brother of rising Sacramento Kings star Keegan Murray. While Kris doesn’t quite have the same perks as his brother, he fits well into the wing position the Blazers would have occupied had Charlotte handed them Miller instead of Henderson and should be ready to contribute immediately. That doesn’t mean the Blazers found the win-now talent they were looking for, but they did a good job with their selection and attracted the right prospects.
Losers: The Thompson Twins
Yes, as a family, that night was historic for the Thompson twins. They were just the first pair of twins to be named in the top 5 (or top 10) of the same draft, and being picked back-to-back will surely stay with them forever. Overall, every prospect selected tonight was a winner.
But the Thompson twins are prime candidates for success in very specific circumstances. Both struggle as jump shooters so in a perfect world they would end up on teams able to cede the ball to them as they progress. But that didn’t happen. Ausar joins a Pistons team that already has two current top draft picks in backcourt in Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, and like Thompson, Ivey is still developing into a shooter.
Amen’s situation could be even more difficult to deal with. Not only do the Rockets have two high-stakes young guards in Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr., but they are also expected to field veteran guards in free agency, with James Harden reportedly high on their list. Pair those guards with Alperen Sengun, a center who needs the ball to be effective, and Amen will have a hard time getting the developmental moves he needs with the roster Houston currently has. Both Thompson twins are still very promising. Their success in the NBA will be down to the work they do to advance within the league. But neither of them starts in ideal situations.
Typically, teams looking to rake in big pay have to drop their first-round picks straight away. In 2019, for example, the Nets traded two first-round picks to convert Allen Crabbe’s $18.5 million salary to Taurean Prince in a rookie deal because they needed additional financial flexibility to accommodate Kyrie Irving and track Kevin Durant.
Now Irving has made his way to Dallas and the Mavericks had to clear even more money. Davis Bertans owes $17 million in guaranteed next season and for the 2024-25 season he owes $5 million in guaranteed monies which totals to a fully guaranteed $16 million if he plays in 75% of games his team plays. But did the Mavericks have to give up their first-round pick to get out of that contract? nope They only moved down two spots, from 12th to 10th, and still ended up with Dereck Lively II, the prospect that was largely expected to end up in Dallas anyway.
The Thunder have over $30 million in cap spaces this offseason, so they can afford to take on Bertans and make the No. 10 jump for Cason Wallace. But the real beneficiary here is Dallas. The Mavericks quickly turned around and used some of the flexibility created by that trade to secure a vacant first-round pick at 24th overall by taking the contract or the Kings’ Richaun Holmes, who was also looking to scoop some money. Holmes is only 29 years old and was the Kings’ starting player prior to the arrival of Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento. Dallas badly needed a big man, and if Holmes gets back to his old form, they were practically given a first-round pick to get their new starting center. It’s a very solid business.
Loser: Cam Whitmore
Early in the draft, Cam Whitmore seemed in with a chance of being drafted up to 4th overall. That obviously didn’t happen. Whitmore eventually dropped out of the lottery and finished 20th overall, costing him around $14 million on his rookie contract. according to Spotrac.
Whitmore’s downfall doesn’t appear to be due to a single factor. He struggled with a thumb injury early in his only season with Villanova. He was criticized for his practice habits and dedication. According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski on the show, he didn’t do well in his workouts and interviews. There’s no doubting Whitmore’s talent, but to make it as an NBA player, it takes a lot more. That crash suggests the league doesn’t think he’s ready for this transition.
Ultimately, he ends up in Houston, a team he may have hoped would rival his higher pick. Had he made a pick or two earlier, he would at least have been a contender this fall. For example, had he finished 18th or 19th at Miami or Golden State, their team cultures would have been better placed to help him bring out the best in his talent. Instead, he ends up with a Rockets team whose young players developed bad playing habits during the rebuild. Maybe Ime Udoka will change that, but right now Houston doesn’t seem ideally positioned to maximize Whitmore.
Winner: warm culture
Miami just made it to the NBA Finals, thanks in large part to undrafted free agents. The Heat used seven of those in their surprise run to the NBA Finals, so first-round picks are almost a rarity in this roster. Of course, when the heat picks hit, they do pretty well. Your three previous first-rounders have all made a great impression: Precious Achiuwa was traded for Kyle Lowry, and Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo proved to be excellent players. These players may be lauded, but they all have the understated mindset that the Heat have weaponized over the past few decades.
This is where Jaime Jaquez comes in. Few youngsters in this class fit that ethos better than he does. He’s not a great athlete and struggled in college, but his dedication on the court and intangibles helped UCLA go 31-6 last season, and his high basketball IQ goes well with Miami’s egalitarian offense. Who cares if their body measurements aren’t ideal? The Heat have turned far lesser-known talent into valuable players. Now they’ve added exactly the kind of prospects they usually covet.
Loser: The viewers
If every design were unpredictable, every design would be predictable. We can’t expect chaos every year because then chaos would just be the norm, but as far as surprises go, this draft was pretty uneventful. The only real surprise in the top 10 was Bilal Coulibaly in 7th, but he had steadily improved on the draft boards throughout the process. The trading market was relatively boring. Indiana and Washington, as well as Dallas and Oklahoma City, conducted minor trades in the lottery without any significant assets changing hands. The most notable players who made their own substitutions in the first round were Davis Bertans and Richaun Holmes.
Ultimately, it’s not the job of the NBA to shock us with blockbusters during the draft. These teams are trying to win, and sometimes winning means making subtle and sensible moves. But the Chris-Paul trade a few hours before the start of the draft suggested today could have been a wild day of NBA transactions. That just didn’t happen.