Each NFL offseason takes mock drafts and draws the eye for weeks – if not months – at a time. But too often they overlook the fact that an entire veteran market must develop before teams turn their eyes to April’s rookie class. That’s not entirely true, of course; Long-term visions that include design perspectives can influence an organization’s approach to free reign. But either way, the early spring signings and trades are first on the agenda.
So let’s fake a free agency! Why on earth should we do that, you ask? Well, #1 because it’s fun. Half the reason the NFL offseason is exciting is the sheer number of scenarios we can dream up. #2 because it actually helps identify the most valuable free agents of the year as well as teams’ top off-season needs.
A few ground rules before we dive in:
- Eligible Players: We used educated guesses (and considered well-informed reports from across the league) to exclude free agents who are all but certain they’ll either be re-signed or tagged by their current teams. Those players are: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, Giants QB Daniel Jones, Jaguars TE Evan Engram, Chiefs OT Orlando Brown Jr., Commanders DT Daron Payne and Eagles S CJ Gardner-Johnson.
- Draft regulation: Instead of using actual draft order, which would exclude certain teams with no first-round picks, we included all 32 by listing the teams in order of likely 2023 cap spot. This also aligns with the free agency exercise considering it will provide a rough pecking order of clubs capable of spending big on veterans.
Well, without further ado, the 2023 NFL Free Agency Mock Draft:
Supporting QB Justin Fields with better protection and receivers is paramount, but Hargave offers the best value in a different area of need. Matt Eberflus’ defense is sorely lacking in punch, and Hargrave is still in the midst of his prime at 30, fresh off a career-high 11 sacks as the most consistent inside starter in the Eagles’ conference-winning unit.
The Falcons have Grady Jarrett but little else up front, hence their constant need for more pocket pushers. Allen, 25, may not be a big name, but he proved a worthy replacement for JJ Watt in 2022 on an otherwise poor Arizona “D,” amassing 5.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, 20 QB hits and eight pass- distractions. Arthur Smith would love such a badass brick.
There are bigger holes at QB and up front, but with so many stopgap signal callers available, they can afford to splurge on “D” where Josh McDaniels is used to having stingy pass coverage on his side from his New England days. Bradberry is 30 but he’s coming off a career All-Pro season in Philly. He would give the Raiders more of a lockdown coverman in an instant.
With Daniel Jones likely to have another tag or a new deal, their focus would inevitably shift to securing better playmakers for the young QB. Meyers, 26, doesn’t scream “superstar,” but he’s probably the most versatile wideout out there, capable of winning on both the inside and outside of the rims. Reliability is exactly what Brian Daboll should be looking for in this position.
Five years into his career, Davenport’s name is still a little bigger than his resume. But Houston needs immediate and long-term help from the edge, and at 26 he still has room to grow. He also showed Pro Bowl ability in 2021 with a nine-sack breakout. If anyone could help him get to the next level, it would probably be DeMeco Ryans, who led the nasty San Francisco front.
In the never-ending quest for a stable O-line for Joe Burrow, the Bengals could part ways with La’el Collins on proper tackle, which would open up a job for McGlinchey, a 49ers starter of the past five years. While not flawless, with an injury history of his own, McGlinchey was an above-average blocker when healthy. That counts for a lot in the NFL.
New England could go so many ways with holes wide out and on defense. But first and foremost, the Patriots need a better bookend game for Mac Jones or whoever takes over QB under Bill O’Brien. Like McGlinchey, the veteran Falcons starter has been a reliable right tackle for years. Additionally, he has been relatively long-lived, missing just three games in four seasons.
An underrated staple of Denver’s frontline, Jones was a constant presence in opposing pockets, though he didn’t emerge as a full-time starter until 2022, when he recorded 6.5 sacks, nine lost tackles and 10 QB hits. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are in dire need of any kind of DL presence they can get, and Jones’ flexibility as a 3-4 end or 4-3 tackle would likely be enticing to Pete Carroll.
Assuming Lamar Jackson is back in some form, the Ravens will have to turn to a lackluster WR corps. Smith-Schuster isn’t exactly a sprightly addition on his own, but after an efficient run as Patrick Mahomes’ top outside goalkeeper in Kansas City, he would easily step in as Baltimore’s most reliable possession receiver. As a bonus, JuJu got to play the Steelers twice a year.
The Cardinals’ new coach, Jonathan Gannon, is a fullback by trade, so upgrading a mostly barren cornerback space will likely be high on his priority list. Dean, 26, isn’t a widely known cover man, but he was arguably the most consistent starter at his position for the Buccaneers’ defense in 2022. He would also represent a longer-term solution for a team in transition.
Few Vets have done more to bolster their roster of free agents at the track than 27-year-old Sutton, who embodied the Steelers’ toughness with some clutch pass coverage. He had a quiet start to his career, but in Detroit he would make a physical complement to former first-rounder Jeff Okudah, who probably had too much on his plate.
Even if longtime left tackle Taylor Lewan hadn’t been relegated as a cap casualty, they would be in the market for OL help regardless of QB’s future. Taylor, meanwhile, has weathered the ups and downs of Jacksonville but emerged as the Jaguars’ top pass protector for Trevor Lawrence in 2022. At 25, having never missed a start, would make him a potential steal within the division.
Tackle is a must, as is QB of course, but provided Indy uses the draft to plug the gaping hole under center, Schultz is a logical multipurpose investment. Tight end may not be in shambles, but he primarily acts as a pass catcher. Still only 26, he would theoretically take some of the pressure from Michael Pittman Jr. as an over-the-middle outlet.
After years of enjoying the patrolling presence of Demario Davis at the heart of his Saints defense, Sean Payton could be eager to refill Denver’s already potent “D,” and Edmunds has the incorrigible qualities to play behind their front line. Somehow still only 24, he also stands out more as a viable long-term starter than other free-agent LBs like Lavonte David.
After James Bradberry went elsewhere (above), the Eagles are looking to revisit the veteran market for a plug-and-play coverman opposite Darius Slay to give reserve Zech McPhearson a chance to progress. Murphy, 25, is a prototypical Howie Roseman gamble: less valuable after injury but with an early-round pedigree and plenty of room for growth at multiple positions.
Our first QB off the board! Washington could be more designing and developing here, but they’re not superbly positioned to secure a top prospect, making Carr the next best among proven starters. The ex-Raiders leader, while more serviceable than special, has the brave mentality Ron Rivera would endorse. Along with Eric Bieniemy and Terry McLaurin, he might surprise.
San Francisco generally gets high marks for their OL game, but after being blasted by the Eagles in the NFC title game, they could use an upgrade for the QB who can stay healthy through 2023. Seumalo is the unannounced name of Philly’s own front line, but He would be projecting at both Sentinels as an immediate upgrade.
The Steelers could use fresh bodies on both sides of the ball, especially with internal free agents at LB and CB, but the No. 1 priority should be restoring the trenches for QB Kenny Pickett. While Wylie, 28, is nowhere near the physical talent of the other Chiefs against Orlando Brown Jr., he’s just had an excellent Super Bowl run and amassed 59 starts for KC’s burgeoning dynasty.
Yes you’ve read correctly! The Jets may have their sights set on bigger names like Aaron Rodgers, but sealing the deal with a blockbuster is easier said than done. If Smith breaks away from Seattle, he would immediately make his mark as an upgrade in his old turf and add a far more explosive pocket passer to New York’s playoff caliber lineup. Nor would his arrival necessarily deter team members from finding a longer-term answer later.
The rich get richer. Beckham’s market is unpredictable given his injury history, but at full speed he’s still a legitimate weapon as a routerunner and downfield threat. KC, meanwhile, might have something sharp in Kadarius Toney but can never have enough toys for Patrick Mahomes and company, especially with JuJu Smith-Schuster going elsewhere in this exercise.
With or without Aaron Rodgers back under center, the Packers need more pass catchers, whether wide or down the line where Robert Tonyan is due for the free hand. Gesicki has been severely underutilized in Miami following the Dolphins’ addition of Tyreek Hill, and he has the wherewithal to at least be a red-zone complement for Christian Watson.
Can you imagine? Barkley is certainly worthy of an earlier pick, but with a devalued position you can see why he would slip. With Tony Pollard on the way to free agency and Ezekiel Elliott’s future unclear, the Cowboys could give Dak Prescott an unexpected boost in skill by pairing him with the rejuvenated Giants star. And they would be stealing a mad athlete from their rivals in the process.
Carolina has young stars at the front and back of its defense but the Panthers could still use a heartbeat down center and David, 33, has long provided rival Buccaneers with that. Yes, he’s older but his game hasn’t slacked off and his leadership would certainly be welcomed by new coach Frank Reich, who is particularly keen on encouraging growth on and off the pitch.
Poyer basically started his career in Cleveland and spent 2013-2016 with the Browns. Now that Buffalo is forced to hit a tight ceiling, he would provide a necessary injection of ballhawking and leadership for a “D” that severely underperforms in 2022.
Los Angeles could vacate some of its regular OL after an injury-ruined 2022 campaign. Risner would help shore up the inside after a solid run in Denver and hopefully allow Matthew Stafford to regain confidence under center.
They have a more urgent need on the corner where new coordinator Vic Fangio will try to revive their “D”. But the Jimmy G connection makes too much sense: As much as this team is publicly committed to Tua Tagovailoa, the young QB cannot – and should not – be trusted to stay on the field. Garoppolo has his own concerns about availability, but he’s at least refereed several playoff runs in the 49ers system, where Mike McDaniel hails. At least he would be premium insurance in a premium position.
As with Saquon, Jacobs’ individual talent warrants a much higher pick here. But as a bloody, occasionally nicked vet in this position, he might be more of a short-term investment. In Buffalo, Jacobs would be an imposing addition to an offense begging for more balance on the ground and would team with Josh Allen to create one of the NFL’s most impressive rushing attacks.
With Keenan Allen a potential Cap victim after an injury-hit year, the Chargers could be in the market for a WR2 against Mike Williams. While Campbell had his own issues staying on the field, he broke out in 2022 as a speed threat to the Colts. His multi-purpose skills alongside RB Austin Ekeler would potentially spice up the offense for Justin Herbert.
With Calvin Ridley set to join the WR Corps and Evan Engram on track to return in some fashion, the Jaguars could focus on improving their young, inconsistent ‘D’. Tomlinson was a strong anchor anywhere, hence the obvious Viking interest in keeping him close. He would be a physical boost to her improving D line.
Minnesota could be in for a major overhaul of its porous secondary, with CB Patrick Peterson and S Harrison Smith expected to set sail. Bates, on the other hand, has been one of the NFL’s most stable roaming safeties over the past half decade; His ball skills (14 career tips) would certainly help the CB group as well. He’s also only 26, making him a longer-term bet.
With Marcus Davenport and Kaden Elliss both earmarked for the free hand, the Saints will likely need at least one veteran from the edge. Ngakoue never broke into form as a running defender, but his acumen at rushing passes is undeniable, making him a potential plug-and-play Pro Bowl talent for Dennis Allen’s unit.
Assuming they’re still determined to fight after Tom Brady, the Bucs could use some help in the backend, where Jamel Dean is a free agent and Todd Bowles’ once-vaunted ‘D’ may have even more pressure to carry the club. Peterson, 32, fits in for many reasons: He’s had a surprisingly solid year, was born and raised in Florida, and could potentially mentor some of the younger DBs beyond 2023.