2023 NFL MVP odds, picks: Best bets on Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, plus more award picks – CBS Sports

We are approaching the start of the regular season. All preseason exhibitions have been played, teams have reduced their rosters to 53, and now we wait until September 7th when the Chiefs and Lions begin the 2023 season. However, before they do, we will give our opinion on various awards for the upcoming season.

Below are our staff’s predictions for some of the season’s notable awards, including MVP. For many more futures picks, you can also check out SportsLine’s NFL Futures Betting Guide, which includes all-team total tips and other betting strategies for the 2023 NFL season, as well as the complete futures portfolio for SportsLine’s top NFL expert RJ White, which includes several Longshot plays at odds of up to 500-1.

Before we begin, here is an overview of the employees making the selection: Pete Prisco, Will Brinson, Eric Kernish, John Breech, Ryan Wilson, Jordan Dajani, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Tyler Sullivan, Bryan DeArdo, Cody Benjamin, Garrett Podell And Jeff Kerr.

All NFL odds come from Caesars Sportsbook.

Important MVP odds

  • Patrick Mahomes (+600)
  • Joe Burrow (+700)
  • Josh Allen (+750)
  • Jalen hurts (+900)
  • Justin Herbert (+950)
  • Lamar Jackson (+1400)
  • Aaron Rodgers (+1500)
  • Trevor Lawrence (+1800)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (+2200)
  • Justin Fields (+2500)
  • Dak Prescott (+2500)

Prisco: Trevor Lawrence (+1800). He’ll have big numbers and they’ll win 13 games to be top of the AFC. The schedule and distribution are favorable. They could score 500 points and he’ll throw for 37 touchdowns and 4,800 yards.

Benjamin: Patrick Mahomes (+600). Boring, but there’s just no one who’s so automatically below the middle. Give him any WR combination and he’ll freak out.

Dubin: Patrick Mahomes (+600). I see no reason to pick anyone else when they are obviously the best and most valuable player in football.

Edwards: Joe Burrow (+700). Patrick Mahomes could be experiencing voter fatigue, so this could be the year Burrow is crowned. Burrow commands tremendous respect throughout the league and establishing himself as an AFC contender for the third straight year should be enough to impress voters.

Wilson: Justin Herbert (+950). If history is anything to go by, Herbert and the Chargers need to win the division before there can even be MVP talks. Coach Brandon Staley is in a make-or-break year, and this team has shown early signs of that. really good. Herbert is the key to everything and he is already one of the best players in the league. If he – and by extension LA – can put it all together, the team will be celebrating more than just their franchise quarterback’s MVP award.

Kernisch: Justin Herbert (+950). The move to Kellen Moore at OC was intended to not only open up the team’s aerial attack, but also prepare Herbert for career numbers and a real shot at his first MVP.

Sullivan: Trevor Lawrence (+1800). I love the value we get with Lawrence primed for a career year as he enters his second season with Doug Pederson at the helm. Oh, and he also has a new No. 1 wide receiver in Calvin Ridley who’s set to improve his stats. The Jaguars have a chance to secure the AFC No. 1 title thanks to their soft division, and that should only increase Lawrence’s MVP chances.

Dajani: Joe Burrow (+700). It’s Joe Burrow’s time. The 26-year-old is well on his way, as is his No. 1 wideout Ja’Marr Chase.

DeArdo: Jalen hurts (+900). Hurts was the top contender for victory before being sidelined through injury late last season. He should win it this year unless Mahomes or Joe Burrow have something to say about it.

Kerr: Jalen hurts (+900). Like value since he can throw for 30 TD and run for 10 TD. If the Eagles win 12-14 games again, the Hurts should win this one.

Podell: Justin Herbert (+950). Herbert is historically prolific: His 14,089 passing yards are the most in NFL history in three seasons, and his 94 passing touchdowns are the second-most in three seasons in league history, trailing only Pro Football Hall of Famer Dan Marino ( 98). With a true offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore and the addition of first-round receiver Quentin Johnston to an offense full of weapons, Herbert has a good chance of becoming one of the NFL’s clearly elite quarterbacks by pushing the Chargers past Patrick Mahomes and the other super- Bowl champion Chiefs.

Brinson: Josh Allen (+750). After an offseason full of doubts for the Bills and hype surrounding the division rival Jets, Allen is somehow going under the radar this season. If the Bills blow up his right arm, he will finally earn his first MVP award.

Clasp: Dak Prescott (+2500). Dak finally has two top receivers who can both put up big numbers, and when you combine that with the fact that the Cowboys’ running game is a huge question mark this year with Tony Pollard coming off an injury, I think we could have one Prescott has a career year ahead of him.

Best bets for offensive rookie of the year

Price: Bryce Young (+450). The only criticism of him is his size, and that is a concern. But I think he can step in as a rookie and play like a veteran, which is why he will win this award.

Benjamin: Zay Flowers (+1600). Odell Beckham Jr. is the big name, but Flowers has what it takes to be the man in the Ravens’ air attack.

Dubin: Bijan Robinson (+275). Just because taking a running back in the first round probably isn’t the best use of resources doesn’t mean the running back won’t be great right away.

Edwards: Anthony Richardson (+650). Passing will be a chore for most rookies, so the added element of Richardson’s rushing pushes him over the edge.

Wilson: Bijan Robinson (+275). It’s an unremarkable choice, yes. Not because Robinson isn’t a truly special talent, but because picking him to win OROY couldn’t be more obvious. But he is the most important player in Atlanta’s offense after second-year QB Desmond Ridder; more important than Drake London, more important than Kyle Pitts. He will be Ridder’s best friend, both as a true runner and as a safety valve in the passing game.

Kernisch: Bijan Robinson (+275). The talented rookie landed in a perfect spot to showcase his skills in Atlanta and will have no problem racking up yards and production in this young, up-and-coming offense.

Sullivan: Jordan Addison (+2200). Like the total game with Addison here. He’s impressed all summer and if he carries over Adam Thielen’s 107 goals from last season, he’ll have plenty of chances to score in a Vikings offensive pass.

Dajani: Bijan Robinson (+275). Chalk? Sure, but I think Arthur Smith has found his double threat, Derrick Henry, if you will. I also don’t have a lot of faith in the rookie quarterbacks.

DeArdo: Zay Flowers (+1600). Flowers narrowly edged out Bijan Robinson, largely because Flowers is on a better team and a former league MVP throws the ball to him.

Kerr: Bijan Robinson (+275). Behind the Falcons’ run-blocking offensive line? Enough said.

Podell: Bryce Young (+450). Bijan Robinson may not have equal numbers as both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson threaten to take turnovers from him in Atlanta. Without Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson could struggle in Indianapolis. Bryce Young is best positioned for immediate success with experienced pass catchers and a solid coaching staff around him.

Brinson: Bryce Young (+450). Quarterbacks don’t need to win many games to take home this honor, so Bryce fits in perfectly even though he’s a top pick (around 5-1). The Panthers will either improve their offensive line play or plan things to keep Bryce from taking too many shots. The weapons are better than you think.

Clasp: Bryce Young (+450). If Young can lead the Panthers to seven or eight wins, I think that will be enough to make him Rookie of the Year and I think that could happen. His biggest rival will probably be Bijan Robinson, but I’m rather young because I think voters seem to like quarterbacks a little more at this honor.

Best bets for Defensive Rookie of the Year

Prisco: Emmanuel Forbes (+1500). Hey, a corner won last year. This kid has all the tools to be a dominant winger and create good defense.

Benjamin: Will Anderson Jr. (+500). DeMeco Ryans is the Texans’ new coach. That says it all.

Dubin: Will Anderson Jr. (+500). That award usually goes to a guy with a big sack total, and Anderson seems like the best bet for getting takedowns.

Edwards: Christian Gonzalez (+1000). Gonzalez is the prototypical coverage cornerback in Bill Belichick’s scheme. I have little faith that anyone will be able to compile monster stats to give Gonzalez the opportunity and training to rise to the top.

Wilson: Emmanuel Forbes (+1500). Forbes is a far cry for DROY when you compare it to Jalen Carter or Will Anderson, but here’s the thing: A year ago, Sauce Gardner won the award, and in the last eight years, cornerbacks have earned the award three times (Marshon Lattimore in ” 17, Marcus Peters in ’15). And Forbes came to Washington with a real DROY pedigree; He had 14 career interceptions at Mississippi State from 2020-2023, including six last season — and six career pick sixes. And sales are transferred from one level to the next; Typically, players who get a lot of interceptions in college end up getting a lot in the NFL, which is potentially good news for the Commanders and bad news for the rest of the NFC East.

Kernish: Will Anderson Jr. (+500). A monster defender willing to take down quarterbacks at high speed. The Texans paid a premium to sign him and he won’t disappoint in the slightest.

Sullivan: Christian Gonzalez (+1000). Gonzalez has been a plug-and-play starter for the Patriots on the outside since the spring. Bill Belichick and the rest of the staff clearly believe he can take on a big role early on and should be able to perform right from the start. He will also have many high-profile duels this season that could decide the success or failure of his candidacy.

Dajani: Emmanuel Forbes (+1500). Forbes is a ball hawk, capable of intercepting balls and willingly participates in running assistance despite his smaller stature. If one of these EDGE guys isn’t wild with sacks, we could see a cornerback win DROY again.

Prefer: Jalen Carter (+500). It didn’t take long for Carter to impress his teammates, and it won’t take long for him to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.

Kerr: Jalen Carter (+500). I saw enough of Carter in camp to know he’ll be a force in 2023. However, it is difficult for the DTs to win this.

Podell: Will Anderson Jr. (+500). During his three-year career in Alabama, Will Anderson Jr. led all college football in quarterback pressures (207), quarterback hits (71), tackles for loss (58.5) and sacks (34.5). . Under the tutelage of head coach DeMeco Ryans, one of the best Texas defensemen in franchise history, he could lead his rookie class in those numbers.

Brinson: Jack Campbell (+1200). The toughest award to find, so I’ll take first-round tackling machine against a Lions team expected to be good for the second time in the last 500 years. Campbell is a Dan Campbell type.

Clasp: Jalen Carter (+500). The Eagles’ rookie joins a strong defense in Philadelphia, which I think gives him the best chance to win. Philly’s opponents likely won’t pay much attention to him, which should give Carter a chance to put up some impressive numbers.

Best bets for Offensive Player of the Year

Prisco: Christian McCaffrey (+1100). He’s going to be a 1,000-1,000 guy. He will rush for 1,500 yards and catch passes for over 1,000 yards. It’s the best combination in the league, and this is where the numbers are stacked up for the backs to win the award.

Benjamin: Justin Jefferson (+1200). If anything, Jordan Addison’s “Jets” performance could only free up additional highlight reel days.

Dubin: Josh Allen (+3000). Recently that award went to a non-quarterback, but I think there’s room for it to go to whoever proves to be second to Mahomes.

Wilson: Justin Jefferson (+1200). Yes, he won it last year, but in three NFL seasons he’s improved his receiving yards total by about 200 and receiving yards by about 20 – he hit 88 and 1,400 as a rookie, 108 and as a sophomore 1,616 and 128 the second year and 1,809 last year. That said, I fully expect him to hit 150/2,000 in 2023 and win OPOY in consecutive years for the first time since Marshall Faulk did it in consecutive years from 1999 to 1999.

Kernish: Ja’Marr Chase (+1100). The Bengals’ star WR is entering his third year and, barring an injury, should continue to improve with Joe Burrow throwing him the ball in a very strong Bengals offense. I expect Chase to have a career year, and that would mean monstrous numbers.

Sullivan: Nick Chubb (+1800). He is arguably the best pure running back in football and now has the backfield largely to himself. The Browns decided against returning Kareem Hunt, which should only give Chubb more opportunities to put up numbers. He will lead the league in rushing and if he has the right touchdown performance, he could clinch that award.

Dajani: Tyreek Hill (+1800). Tyreek Hill finished second in the NFL in receptions and second in receiving yards last season, even though Tua Tagovailoa was actually out for five games. That’s incredible. He says 2,000 yards is a realistic goal in 2023.

DeArdo: Tyreek Hill (+1800). Hill was in serious pursuit of the NFL’s first 2,000-yard receiving season before injuries at QB left him with “only” 1,710 yards. A healthy Tua Tagovailoa should lead to a monster season for Hill.

Kerr: Justin Jefferson (+1200). He will get his catches and yards in a Kevin O’Connell-led offense. Could reach 2,000 yards.

Podell: Christian McCaffrey (+1100). The San Francisco 49ers offense didn’t stand still for a moment, ranging from Jimmy Garoppolo, a nine-year NFL veteran and Super Bowl starting quarterback, to Brock Purdy, the last player selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, thanks in large part to Christian last season McCaffrey. His presence in the starting lineup as both rusher and receiver starting in Week 8 following a midseason trade from the Carolina Panthers helped San Francisco to a perfect 10-0 record to finish the regular season. A full season on offense from Kyle Shanahan could give CMC the opportunity to put up big numbers.

Brinson: Christian McCaffrey (+1100). The betting favorite CMC is still too cheap given his skill set combined with Kyle Shanahan’s willingness to play and Brock Purdy’s targeting preferences (find him at around 15-1). If you extrapolate his 49ers stats over a full season, you’re on the verge of a 2K scrimmage yard season.

Clasp: Tyreek Hill (+1800). This award has gone to a receiver in three of the last four years, so I might as well follow the trend and pick the most explosive receiver in the NFL.

Best bets for Defensive Player of the Year

Prisco: Micah Parsons (+450). Since he is now a full-time rush player, his sack count will be around 20. Parsons has the ability to take over a game at the rim with his pure speed and athletic ability.

Benjamin: Haason Reddick (+2200). He may have even more time for straight-line pass rushing under new DC Sean Desai.

Dubin: Micah Parsons (+450). He finished second in his first two seasons. This is the year he breaks through and leaves no doubt.

Wilson: TJ Watts (+700). Yes, he won the award after the 2021 season, when he had 22.5 sacks, but he’s poised to win it again after an injury-plagued ’22 season limited his effectiveness (and limited him to just 10 games). He’s the second most important player on the roster after Kenny Pickett, and depending on the day, he could even be the most important. He’s a play-destroyer, not only because of his ability to get to the quarterback, but he also has six career interceptions and 37 passes defended, to go along with 23 forced fumbles and of course 77.5 sacks, heading into ’23.

Sullivan: Micah Parsons (+450). He’s the favorite and with good reason. Parsons finished second in each of the last two seasons and I expect this to be the year for him to take the next step up. Dallas has a strong secondary that should force opposing QBs to hold onto the ball even longer, giving Parsons plenty of time to attack and pile up sacks.

Dajani: Maxx Crosby (+1000). Crosby is an elite competitor who appears to be getting better and better. He will have a career year in 2023.

DeArdo: Micah Parson (+450). Something just tells me that Parsons is adding this award to his bona fides this year. Parsons has been one of the best defenders in the league since his rookie days and is entering his third season as arguably the best defensive player in the league.

Kerr: Myles Garrett (+600). It’s Garrrett’s time as Za’Darius Smith gives him the freedom to compete for 20+ sacks.

Podell: Micah Parsons (+450). The Cowboys have led the NFL in takeaways each of the last two seasons while ranking in the top five in scoring defense. Micah Parsons was selected to the first-team All-Pro team in each of his first two seasons, but continues to improve his performance. He does so in 2023.

Brinson: Aaron Donald (+2600). From a betting perspective, I prefer Donald (he’s 25-1), but I’m also just glad I’m the only one on the planet picking him to win, because I’ll look like a genius when the Rams go 9-8 stand, Donald has more than 20 sacks and everyone says, “Wow, of course Aaron Donald is Defensive Player of the Year.”

Shutter: Micah Parsons (+450). I’ve already picked Dak Prescott for MVP, so I might as well go all-in on the Cowboys.

Best bets for comeback player of the year

Prisco: Calvin Ridley. After missing virtually two seasons, Ridley is back and will put up big numbers in the Jaguars’ offense. During camp, he was the talk of the summer in Jacksonville.

Benjamin: Calvin Ridley. Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson could get the Falcons back into top form for a playoff contender.

Dubin: Damar Hamlin. If he appears in a single game, I see no way anyone else can win.

Edwards: Damar Hamlin. Comeback Player of the Year is so often awarded for the best story, and Hamlin is the overwhelming favorite this year.

Wilson: Mac Jones. Bill O’Brien could end up being the best offseason acquisition the Pats have made in a few years, and Mac Jones will be the main beneficiary. In other words, it’s amazing how far a young quarterback can go without a defensive coordinator calling the plays.

Kernish: Damar Hamlin. It’s a feel-good story that makes the Bills player a surefire choice to take home the award, especially if he stays healthy, plays well and helps Buffalo win.

Sullivan: Damar Hamlin. This is inevitable at this point.

DeArdo: Tua Tagovailoa. Miami’s quarterback has proven he can play at a high level. He has been getting physical this offseason to improve his chances of getting to the finish line this season.

Kerr: Damar Hamlin. I don’t need the chances.

Podell: Damar Hamlin. This man almost died on a soccer field last season, and miraculously this season he is not only alive, but ready to play ball again. No one else can win this prize.

Brinson: John Metchie III. Understandably, Damar Hamlin will be the most contender, but I think Metchie’s performance on a decent Texans team at the end of the season – plus beating leukemia to get back on the field a year later – could justify winning this award .

The best bets on coach of the year

Dajani: Robert Saleh (+1600). I think Saleh is a solid bet if the Jets win the AFC East with Rodgers under center.

Paddle: Matt LaFleur (+1400). Matt LaFleur received no flowers for helping Aaron Rodgers regain his MVP form in 2020 and 2021, as his Packers teams won 13 games three years in a row from 2019 to 2021, the only team to do so in in NFL history. In 2023, he’ll get the plaudits he deserves after helping lead Green Bay back to the NFC North mountaintop in Jordan Love’s first season as an NFL starting quarterback.

Sullivan: Mike Tomlin (+1800). It’s great that Tomlin hasn’t won this award yet, and I think he has a good chance of finally adding it to his resume this season. The Steelers have a rising offense with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett at the helm and a stout defense that will turn heads even among the elite quarterbacks in the conference. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they made the playoffs, but it would still be a remarkable achievement in a deep AFC. When they get there, Tomlin should be in the running.

Clasp: Robert Saleh (+1600). Yes, he has Aaron Rodgers on his team, but if Saleh leads the Jets to their first playoff berth in 13 years, which I believe will happen, then he will become a serious favorite to win this award.