By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
After an 11-year gap between series wins, both of which coincidentally came against Rangers, the Devils, who have been questioned for their inexperience and style of play, are here for Round 2. The Hurricanes and their elite system advanced on the Islanders despite missing a number of the top six forwards.
It’s a matchup between two teams that jostled for the No. 1 spot throughout the regular season, with Carolina holding their own. But now, in Round 2, the Devils and Hurricanes will go head-to-head to see who is the best team from the Metropolitan Division this year.
The chance
Just like the Devils versus Rangers fight, the odds here are razor-thin – and we’ve seen that play out. Game 7. Expect something close here with a hard-fought streak where the likeliest outcome is it lasting six games or more. This happens 63 percent of the time according to our model.
The Devils were slight favorites in Round 1, but this time they are slight underdogs. There wasn’t much separating the Metropolitan Division three giants going into the playoffs, but the Hurricanes — even without Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty — were at the front of the dog poo. They are still in question with the status of Teuvo Teravainen.
The home ice advantage is a factor here, but it’s also Carolina’s ability to defend that gives the Hurricanes a very narrow advantage. They know better than most teams how to limit mistakes and force them the other way, and play a frustratingly structured game made for the playoffs.
After the first round, however, the Devils try to prove that there isn’t just one way to win the playoffs. They have their own winning style that can make this series a very interesting tactical battle.
The Hurricanes and Devils play opposite brands of hockey and are masters of their craft. The end result of this is a coin toss streak in which both styles have a nearly equal chance of winning.
The payment
Round 2 features a duel between two of the regular season’s best five-a-side teams, who are incredibly close with just one point between their net ratings. But that’s where many similarities stop, considering their stylistic differences. A strong possession team, the Devils thrive with their mobile defense that transitions from defense to offense and rushes up the ice at speed. This contributes to their high rate of fire and odds.
The Hurricanes, on the other hand, are one of the best forechecking teams in the league, pressuring opponents to regain possession and get down to business. This system helped them create a little more offense and leave a little less in the regular season against New Jersey – Carolina, after all, is the team with the best defensive rating of plus 46.
Another common theme between these two teams is that neither converts their chances as highly as expected (although the Devils’ gap isn’t as great compared to the Hurricanes) or relies on elite goalies. Both teams have developed systems to support their goalies to enable them to succeed (and this is where Carolina comes out on top when it comes to squashing their shooting and scoring chances).
Both teams maintained much of their five-a-side strengths in the playoffs. It took the Devils a few games to reach full strength but ultimately led all 16 teams with an expected goal percentage of 58.7 percent thanks to their two-way effort. The Canes’ offense held, but they trailed a little more in six games.
Where their defense continued to shine was in the penalty shootout – a clear advantage they hold over most teams. Sure, it went against an Islanders’ lackluster power play, but it was just an extension of their regular season. That can be continued here, especially given the Devils’ powerplay inconsistencies. That could help neutralize the special teams struggle, considering Carolina isn’t exactly prolific on the power play either, and New Jersey has some understaffed strengths. But if the Canes find ways to cause offense on penalties, it could drain for New Jersey.
The big question
Off-the-Rush or Off-the-Cycle – Which Team Attack Style Will Win?
The tactical matchup here will be one of the most interesting of the postseason, partly because the comparison is so strong. Carolina’s game plan has basic tenets: Wear down opponents and wear down goals with a relentless, effective forecheck, then aggressively defend your own blue line. The Devils, on the other hand, are a bit more diverse, but not by much. This is one of the premier rush teams in the league, with (at least) three lines capable of receiving passes in the neutral zone and driving to the races.
It’s worth emphasizing how heavily Carolina relies on his forecheck – and how effective it is. According to Corey Sznjader’s recorded data from the regular season, the Hurricanes averaged more than 35 shots from the forecheck per 60 minutes of play. That’s leaders in the league, four more than the second-placed Panthers. It is also the most drastic breakup. Carolina’s 12.9 rush shots per 60 is the third-lowest in the league, ahead of only truly inept teams in Anaheim and Arizona. However, the Ducks and Coyotes make no organizational decision. Carolina is.
This choice extends to defense. No team allowed fewer shots from the precheck/cycle than Carolina’s 19.39/60. The challenge for the Devils is that the Hurricanes can handle anything at best – this isn’t a one-dimensional defensive team that won’t flex. They are also elite against the rush, allowing 12.4 shots per 60, behind only Boston and New Jersey in the regular season. The reasons for this are simple enough. The Hurricanes have the puck at a super-elite level, which cuts chances instantly, and have a strong group of defenders that can wipe out chances before they happen. Carolina’s 16.6 percent zone denial rate was the best in the league.
Now where are the devils? For one, their greatest defensive strength – preventing rush chances against counterintuitive as it might seem – could be countered here. The Canes aren’t interested in run-and-gun hockey, nor are they built for it. But what makes the Devils dangerous is that they’re not only the best rush team in the league (20.1 shots/60, according to Sznjader).
They can grind it a bit and are probably less prone to the forecheck in their own end than you’d suspect, allowing for an average of 26.67 forecheck shots against per 60, which keeps them firmly centered in the field during regular play brings season. Maybe that turns out to be mediocre enough for the Hurricanes to take advantage of, but maybe not. The islanders were in the same neighborhood and we know how that turned out. But if you think the Devils spent the regular season playing zero-calorie run-and-gun hockey, think again.
That points to Carolina’s biggest problem. The Devils play substantial run-and-gun hockey. With Carolina’s aggravated problems converting zone time into goals, it won’t take many instances of the Devils’ forwards breaking through to put the Hurricanes on their heels and into a hole. Playing consistently from behind isn’t exactly part of the Hurricanes’ plan. On the other hand, their plan is good and they execute it well. This should be fun.
The x factor
Akira Schmidt?!
To the right? Who knows! In five games after taking on Vitek Vanecek 2-0 at the Devils, Schmid had four wins, four quality starts, two shutouts, a .951 percent save and nearly six better-than-expected goals. He stopped all 31 shots he faced in Game 7. The Devils are in the second round for the first time in 11 years, largely because of him — a 22-year-old fifth-rounder with 24 appearances over the past two seasons.
His rise is surprising, but also probably a little less random than you’d think. His game in the 2022/23 season is the reason Lindy Ruff was replaced by Vanecek so quickly. In 18 games, Schmid achieved a save rate of 0.922 and saved 8.58 goals above expectations. These are sparkling numbers in limited service. He had certainly proven himself to be a capable NHL goaltender, with size (6-foot-5), poise and some solid puck-handling skills to boot. Prior to the 2022-23 season, Scott Wheeler rated Schmid as the No. 7 in the second-best system. He rose up against Rangers, especially in Game 7 when Rangers made a point of testing him with the glove side. It did not work.
However, it’s still fair to be taken by surprise. He played in the USHL two years ago, for goodness sake, and was one of the seven goalies New Jersey unsuccessfully rolled out in the 2021-22 season. He wasn’t ready then. Anyway, he seems ready now.
The rosters
In Round 2, the Hurricanes’ roster isn’t where they’d like it to be. Offseason newcomer Pacioretty has been on the road for most of the year. Svechnikov is also out. And now, after round 1, they are also without Teravainen. That’s slots players like Mackenzie Maceachern and Jordan Martinook above their lows and gives the Devils a bigger lead in forward strength – something they would have in a number of matchups given some of the skills in their top 9 are factored in.
Jack Hughes is the starting point, as the player who’s brought a ton of speed and pop to the Devils’ roster all year. Through six games, per Todd Cordell’s pursuit, Hughes contributed most to the team’s five-on-five offense between his shooting and his make-up play. He was dynamic for much of the series, with his fast game, but he wasn’t the only standout in the middle.
When Center Depth wins championships, the Devils get off to a fantastic start with a 1-2 smash from Hughes and Nico Hischier. The team captain continued to play a central role after a season of Selke caliber while taking on top-flight competition. Against the Rangers, that often meant a duel with Mika Zibanejad. In a five-five game, the Rangers created just nine chances to score for the Devils’ 20 with the two on the ice together, while New Jersey shared those minutes with nearly 78 percent of goals expected. Hischier limiting Zibanejad is a key reason the Devils are advancing in Round 2.
Hischier is likely to switch from Zibanejad to Sebastian Aho in Round 2, another of the best two-way centers in the game. Aho’s plus-14 offensive rating is second best in this matchup, behind Hughes, and is matched or bettered by only eight skaters who advanced to the second round. His performance in the playoffs, highlighted by four goals, three assists and a 1.74 game point average, finishing 10th in the postseason, was game-changing for his team. Continuing that is crucial here given how tight the depth of the team is.
Aho is surrounded by Seth Jarvis, a complementary forward with strengths at both ends of the ice, and Maceachers. It’s not the most exciting top line on paper, especially for a competitor, but it credits to the strength of the Hurricanes system, which puts players in positions they can get in and thrive on. In the 25 minutes of that line together in Round 1, they thrived with an expected goal percentage of nearly 75 percent. The big question is can this continue because they are up against a much more balanced top line.
Hischier, on the other hand, has Tomas Tatar, whose defensive influence has helped the Devils all year, and Jesper Bratt. Bratt has been one of New Jersey’s best wingers for a while, and he led the team with 22 assists in six games per Cordell’s pursuit.
Jesperi Kotkanimei is in the middle of a second row who obviously lacks the star power that Svechnikov brings. Only one player in this combination, Marty Necas, has a positive offensive rating. In the minutes of the first round, they scored zero goals together in less than 24 minutes of a five-a-side game, falling below breakeven.
Compare that to the Hughes line for New Jersey, which has Ondrej Palat on the left and former Cane Erik Haula on the right. Alongside Hughes, Palat is the player to watch. He didn’t have a great regular season, Tatar really played the way Palat expected, but in the playoffs he developed the game-changing plays that he’s become known for.
The third line of the Hurricanes with Stefan Noesen, Jordan Staal and Jesper Fast is designed for defense. It won’t be surprising to see Staal against Hughes after limiting Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat in Round 1.
The Devils, on the other hand, have spread their offensive threats across three lines. Here her depth has a very clear edge. Timo Meier is bottom on the third row and although he was goalless in Round 1 it wasn’t from lack of try with 54 shot attempts that would likely result in around 2.5 expected goals. Granted he’s healthy for Round 2, his goal-scoring should change. And he’s not the only threat to watch out for, with Dawson Mercer in the middle of that line.
No fourth line brings much offensive pop. The Canes scored one of theirs while the Devils probably could have asked for a better two-way play from this combination. But New Jersey has other options to work with like Curtis Lazar and Jesper Boqvist while Carolina’s depth is stretched.
While the Devils have a strong blue line, few can match those of the Canes. That starts at the top with Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns thriving in Round 1 with 63 percent expected goals. What led to this was the amount of attacks Carolina generated, 4.40 expected goals per 60 when deployed. Only Cale Makar and Devon Toews rank higher in the playoffs.
But Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler also featured in Round 1 after an excellent regular season (aside from a very questionable scratch from Siegenthaler in Game 2). The pair were equal to Burns and Slavin with an expected goal percentage of 63 percent and they were very strong offensively, just not in their opponent’s mood. They were also super strong defensively.
The stingy pair in New Jersey are John Marino and Ryan Graves, who conceded just 2.01 expected goals per 60 in their minutes. They generally lead the top competition, as do Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce. This even pair was fantastic in the regular season but not perfect in Round 1. This series will have to change that when it comes up against a more attacking team. The third pairs are also fairly balanced and keep this series close together.
Considering teams set up in front of the net, teams only need so much from their goalies. Each team used more than one goalie in Round 1 and has options. For the Devils, Schmid earned the starting net after Vanecek struggled for his second straight postseason. After a solid game by Antti Raanta against the Islanders, Carolina brought on Frederik Andersen. In addition, if necessary, Pytor Kotchekov is still available. The Hurricanes are ahead on paper, but there are still concerns about injuries among their starting tandem. But if Schmid’s postseason so far is any indication of what’s to come, there are fewer gaps in this positional matchup.
The key matchup
Brent Burns versus Dougie Hamilton
In a series between the Hurricanes and the Devils, the crucial matchup is obvious: It’s Hamilton versus the guy who essentially replaced Hamilton.
The cannon-firing Behemoth defenders have been on the sidelines of the Norris trophy talk this year, and with good reason after strong bounce-back campaigns. Hamilton hit career highs with 22 goals and 74 points offensively, while Burns was a perfect fit for Slavin, who produced excellent numbers in difficult five-a-side minutes.
Burns is known for being a wild card on the ice, but his game has matured. He takes fewer risks on ice, doesn’t rush up as quickly, and has seen big improvements in defending his blue line. All of this led to the strongest defensive numbers of his career.
Playing with Slavin helps in that regard and it’s taken some time for Hamilton to get back on track since leaving Carolina himself. This year, the biggest step forward he’s made in his game has been defending onslaught, where he deservedly became one of the best in the league. It’s a nice tool to add to his box, in addition to being one of the strongest offensive zone creators. Only Cale Makar and Adam Fox have had more scoring opportunities this season.
Now they are head to head and it will be interesting to see who prevails. After a masterly performance in Game 7, Hamilton ended the streak with 63 percent of goals against Rangers, narrowly edging out Burns’ 61 percent.
The final result
No other series in this round has a smaller lead. No other series comes particularly close. That alone makes for a compelling narrative.
The outcome here depends on a few predictable questions – performance at the front of the lineup, who wins a stylistic battle, an unknown asset in goal and luck. Does that make the outcome itself predictable? Not nearly. Make yourself comfortable and enjoy watching this game.
references
How these projections work
How these projections fared last season
Understand projection uncertainty
resources
Ice hockey in transition
Natural statistics trick
Ice Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo: Elsa/Getty Images)