By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
The Wild haven’t made it past the first round since 2015. Could this be your year?
It will not be easy. The Central Division was such a close fight that it took until the last day of the season for the series to pull through. While Minnesota got lucky and don’t have to take on reigning champions Colorado, the Stars are no pushovers. They were just minutes away from first place in the division.
Dallas wants to move forward from last year when they extended Round 1 into overtime in Game 7. The team has made an effort to be more than just a top line and goalkeeper.
Who makes it to round 2?
This may be a matchup highlighted by two stars co-leading the league in Jason Robertson and Kirill Kaprizov, but this is shaping up to be a defensive battle backed by strong goalkeeping on both sides.
The chance
In a different world where Joel Eriksson Ek is healthy, this is a much closer series – one of the closest of the opening round. Without Eriksson Ek, the odds of the wild drop by five percentage points and the end result is that Dallas is favored by 61 percent instead of 56 percent. That’s still relatively close; it could only have been a lot closer.
This series is basically the western version of Hurricanes vs. the Islanders – a marquee defensive match in which the two sides are almost evenly matched without the puck, but one side has a distinct advantage with it. In that streak, that’s Dallas, which is a much more complete team than the Wild, giving it the streak advantage. Both teams do a fantastic job of limiting chances and goals, but one side creates chances and puts them on the net with a higher frequency.
That’s going to be a big deal in a series where a single jump can dictate the outcome. The defensive struggle these two are likely to have is what makes the series so close. The Stars and Wild have an average expected goals total of 5.73 per game, the second-lowest of any playoff series. That could mean that puck luck plays an outsized role in this series compared to others.
The payment
The Stars are a different team this year, and a lot of that has to do with them having more than one line that creates offense. Dallas has a plus-15 offensive rating with its all-situation play.
At five for five, Dallas creates shots at a high rate but is more of the midfield when it comes to their shot quality. However, their scoring is pretty much on par with what they manage.
Minnesota, on the other hand, has a similar profile to last year as their offensive lineup is once again below average. It was particularly low in the final part of the season. And their actual batting average put them second to bottom in the league; Only three teams scored fewer than their 2.22 goals per 60: the Ducks, Blue Jackets, and Blackhawks.
However, this team is not free from attacks. The power play is a legitimate area of strength, especially now that Kaprizov is healthy. But it’s also something the stars have as an advantage.
Where these teams are really close is defensively, with a three-point difference between their ratings. The only series closer in defensive rating is Islanders-Hurricanes in the East. These two teams both ranked in the top four in expected goal suppression, with the Wild just marginally ahead. Both teams were also among the stronger at stopping actual goals, with the Wild coming out on top.
Stylistically, the stars play with a little more speed. The team is average at entering the zone and getting quality shots in transition, and even better at stopping them at the other end. Minnesota doesn’t allow many chances from entries either. Where they differ from Dallas is their below average quality that looks away from the hustle and bustle. Instead, they’re one of the better teams at generating shots from the forecheck.
The defensive strength each team displays extends to the power play. Dallas and Minnesota are close to what they allow, but the Stars did a little better at keeping the puck out of the net while outnumbered.
The big question
Are the wilds deep enough without Eriksson Ek in the middle?
Short answer: no, but that could have been the answer as well if Eriksson had played Ek.
The Wild have excellent goalkeeping, a blue line full of shutdown defenders, and some offensive electricity off the wings. They’re a strong team everywhere…except maybe where it matters most. That doesn’t change with or without Eriksson Ek, whose offensive and defensive ratings would be plus-3 in both directions. This is a strong player, especially on defense, but the average top line center in these playoffs is +13/+1. Defensively, Eriksson Ek would rank fourth among those centers, but offensively he’d be 16th of 16. That’s been the problem in Minnesota for a long time — just what’s missing from the recipe that would make the Savages a legitimate cup contender.
Take away what little the savages already have in a position of weakness – their best option – and things look a lot worse. Ryan Hartman is becoming the team’s top center, and while he’s a good player himself, he’s a lot closer to being a decent second-line center than a top dog. After him, the next three Minnesotas all score below average. It’s possible Marco Rossi could come in and surprise but his game in the big leagues so far leaves something to be desired.
Overall, Minnesota centers have an offensive rating of minus 16 and a defensive rating of minus 3 – good for a minus 13 overall. Not good! The Wild are one of four teams, along with Los Angeles, Seattle and Winnipeg, whose overall depth of center is below average. The savages are last in this group.
The saving grace for Minnesota is that Dallas isn’t that deep in the middle either. Roope Hintz is an absolutely average top-line center among playoff teams this year and will be a problem along with the rest of the top-line, but the stars after him are also pretty thin. Max Domi offers a strong offense but is a liability himself. Wyatt Johnston is appropriate. And while Radek Faksa is great defensively, he offers next to nothing in the other direction.
This is a beatable central core, especially when the Savages are getting help from their flanks and taking out defenders to close the gap. As they have done all season, the Wild must play to their strengths in order to limit their weaknesses. This will be much more difficult without Eriksson Ek, but it is far from impossible.
Minnesota is at a disadvantage down the middle, and that’s a big deal when it comes to playoff time — but the Wild are far from doomed because of that.
The x factor
Which breakout goalie comes out on top in this series?
No other series has more obvious potential for high-end goalies than this one. Jake Oettinger delivered the truly blue breakout season that many people predicted after his star performance during last year’s series against the Flames. Overall, he posted a .919 save rate (fifth best among starters) and held more goals than expected (21.65) than all but seven of his peers. He had a bit of a lull in March (0.895 percent), but the Stars still won nine of his 12 starts that month, and he bounced back with four outstanding games to end the season.
The appearance of Filip Gustavsson in Minnesota was undoubtedly a little more surprising. The Wild only acquired him from Ottawa after they decided to fulfill Cam Talbot’s trade request. Gustavsson started the season as a backup, then settled into a timeshare with Marc-Andre Fleury after a strong November (0.933 percent). He finished the season with a .931 save percentage, second among the starters only behind Linus Ullmark and a GSAx of 24.54, putting him just ahead of Oettinger. He didn’t have particularly tough tracks, but he also had the benefit of a high-end partner and a lighter workload than Oettinger.
Now we can watch them fight it out… with an asterisk. Gustavsson is no lock to start Game 1 over Fleury. That alone could give Oettinger the “X Factor” advantage. You can’t be a factor if you don’t play. Also counting is Oettinger’s experience of not only handling the workload of a seven-game series, but thriving with it.
The rosters
Offensive and Defensive Value Explainer
The marquee matchup of this series obviously tops the list with Robertson and Kaprizov. They’re two electric strikers who can drive their lines and really add some scoring pop to this series.
Kaprizov revived the game from Mats Zuccarello and the pairing has been a mainstay ever since. The winger brings two-way support; He’s a pass-first player with defensive instincts, and this year he’s brought even a little more shot power into play. Between them is Hartman, who’s nowhere near the caliber of a 1C but is one of the few options this team really has to fill out the line.
On the other hand, nobody has been spending more time together this year than top tier stars Robertson, Hintz and Joe Pavelski. This trio is rocking an expected goal percentage of 60 percent and outscoring their opponents 52-24. Every player brings something to the table on this line. Hintz is a strong two-way center presence that can capture pucks and lead the game, while Pavelski is still a great net front presence. Then there’s Robertson’s shooting ability to top it off.
Mason Marchment returned for the final game of the season after missing a month, so the stars have only seen him with Max Domi for so long. These are two new additions to Dallas who missed last year’s playoff run and add some depth to their middle six. Domi’s scoring this year added to his value, but beneath the surface there wasn’t much inspiring play. He hasn’t had much puck luck at all since joining the Stars, so Dallas needs to change that if they’re going to topple this streak.
Rounding out this trio is Tyler Seguin, who is having a year of recovery. He increases the team’s expected goal percentage by about 7.6 percent more than the average forward in his minutes, which is a leap ahead of recent years.
Seguin isn’t the only player who has recovered in Dallas. It was Jamie Benn’s best season in a long time. He’s in a matching role on the third line, with Johnson and Deadline add Evgeny Dadonov. This combination can create many high value chances and has paid them off. Their home-end play leaves a lot to be desired, but the fact that the Stars have three lines that can contribute offensively is a big step up from that time last year.
Which team has the middle six at an advantage? That may depend on how the second line performs in Minnesota. Matt Boldy showed great star power when Kaprizov was out through injury and finally gave this side the 2-1 punch they were missing in attack. It coincided with Marcus Johansson’s arrival in Minnesota, which is going much better than the last time he was with the Wild. The problem is they have to continue that with Frederick Gaudreau trying to fill a hole the size of Eriksson Ek.
Marcus Foligno is the only member of Wild’s GREEF lineup to open the playoffs. He brings defensive strength to the third line, but with Gustav Nyquist and Sam Steel there isn’t much offensive potential. Perhaps a healthy Nyquist can bounce back outside of Columbus, where he’s had a rough year. But only so much scoring should really be expected here.
Ditto for the two fourth lines — both add up to a 29-down offensively. Minnesota has the physical advantage between these combinations while Dallas is better defensively.
The highest rated defender of this entire series is without a doubt Miro Heiskanen. He’s a true Dallas number one, one who thrives on turning defense into offense – whether that’s getting the puck out of his own zone and making controlled breakouts or playing to extend offensive zone time. Heiskanen is paired with Colin Miller, which helps the Stars even out the top-6 a bit more.
Minnesota has its own Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman in Jared Spurgeon in the top pair. While he’s struggled in the past with tough hockey that the playoffs brought, he held his own last postseason. And now it’s off to the playoffs after another strong season, most notably alongside Jacob Middleton, who brings more size and bite to the pair. They’ve managed a 55 percent goal average in their minutes, and the Wild have given up very few actual goals when deployed.
The same can be said for Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba on the ice, although this duo allows a few more chances in their minutes. Still, their combined defensive rating of +9 puts them ahead of Dallas’ Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa, who also rank lower offensively.
The Wild will see a familiar face in Ryan Suter and the stars will see John Klingberg.
It’s been a terrible season for Klingberg at Anaheim, but if any team could attempt to maximize it, it would be with Minnesota’s defensive structure. But for the playoffs, the Wild are trying something different by moving him to the left side. Maybe that opens up his offensive play, but it could lead to more defensive errors for a player who already has some holes there. Moving him would allow Brock Faber, a right-hander who arrived at the University of Minnesota just after his season ended, to play his right side. He’s the wild card here because the team has only seen so much of him at the NHL level — and they clearly liked it better than what veterans they’re used to to filling that number six spot.
Then there’s the goalie fight. Oettinger was a star by any measure last postseason against the Flames and now there are expectations he will live up to this time around. The Fleury Gustavsson image in Minnesota gives them some support, but it will be interesting to see their use. When teams share the net in the regular season, there’s usually still a good starter in the playoffs. There may be exceptions to that — look at the Panthers in 2021. Last year, the Wild arguably decided to move the starters late in the series. We’ll have to see if they learned from it this time, if need be.
The key matchup
Kirill Kaprizov vs. Jason Robertson
Kaprizov and Robertson have a lot in common. Both have spent the last two seasons establishing themselves in the first half of their 20s as franchise wingers capable of making Hart Trophy shortlists. Both play on the left. Both are fun, of course – but they’re also substantial. There isn’t much to complain about either of them.
Prior to this season, however, their differences also seemed relatively stark. Robertson was the triggerman on one of the NHL’s best lines. Outstanding in its own right, sure, but also part of the Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski hive consciousness. Kaprizov, meanwhile, was the undisputed driver of his own bus. Mats Zuccarello and Ryan Hartman were, above all, worthy co-drivers, but Kaprizov made the whole thing work in every offensive way. Without Kaprizov, Zuccarello and Hartman’s expected goals rate dropped from 57.9 to 40.2 and their high risk chance dropped from 58.7 to 35.4.
Well, it’s not as if the roles were reversed — Kaprizov is a superstar regardless of when he missed the track. Not least thanks to Matt Boldy, the Wild held together, but 15 games does not make a season. Kaprizov is still The Guy. It’s more that Robertson joined him at this particular club. This season he increased his primary assist rating from .85/60 to 1.51/60. That coincidentally is identical to Kaprizov in 2021-22, and all on top of a 46-goal season. It’s hard to tell what Pavelski and Hintz would look like without him as it’s such a rare occurrence. The stars would undoubtedly prefer never to find out.
The final result
The gap widened to one of the tightest series of the first round due to injuries midway through Minnesota. It’s not like a player will make or break this match, but it just further defines an area of weakness.
If the wilds’ strong defenses can slow down the stars and suppress their offense, it won’t be a surprise if this goes the distance. That’s the key to this series, given how closely they match up elsewhere. If that happens, Eriksson Ek could return and make it anyone’s game.
references
How these projections work
How these projections fared last season
Understand projection uncertainty
resources
Ice hockey in transition
Natural statistics trick
Ice Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo by Mason Marchment of Dallas and Filip Gustavsson of Minnesota: Bruce Fedyck / USA Today)