With the 2023 regular season ending Sunday, 18 of the NFL's 32 teams are done for the year. That means it's time to turn our attention to the league's coaching carousel, which currently has five openings: the Carolina Panthers, the Las Vegas Raiders, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Atlanta Falcons, with the team shortly after midnight on Sunday evening, Arthur Smith was fired. The commanders moved on from Ron Rivera on Monday.
recent job offers
The Panthers made Frank Reich the first coach fired, firing him on Nov. 27 after Carolina began the year 1-10 in his first coaching season. Reich's 11-game tenure is the shortest with any team since Pete McCulley spent nine games with the San Francisco 49ers in 1978. Carolina finished the season with the NFL's worst record, 2-15, and the league's worst offense (13.9 points per game) in first-overall pick quarterback Bryce Young's rookie season in 2023.
The Raiders fired Josh McDaniels on Halloween after a 3-5 start. As head coach of the Raiders, he went 9-16 in two seasons. McDaniels reportedly lost the locker room when his players were attacked over his leadership style. Las Vegas went 5-4 under linebackers and interim coach Antonio Pierce and finished the season 8-9 overall. Their 15.9 points per game allowed from Weeks 9 to 18 under Pierce were the fewest in the NFL.
The Chargers fired Brandon Staley on Dec. 15 after a 5-9 start that included a 63-21 loss in his final game as coach. Los Angeles was without quarterback Justin Herbert, who was sidelined with a broken index finger on his right throwing hand. The Chargers ranked 28th in both scoring and total defense under Staley in 2023, a far cry from when he coached the league's best scoring and overall defense as defensive coordinator with the Rams in 2020.
The Atlanta Falcons released Arthur Smith following the conclusion of the final day of the regular season on January 7 after he finished 7-10 in each of his first three seasons. Smith became the first Falcons head coach to lose ten games in three consecutive seasons. Game management has not been his strength this season, as Atlanta has suffered four losses this season while taking the lead in the final minute of the game. This is the highest performance by a team since the New York Giants in 2015.
His biggest mistake as a head coach is his reluctance to use the three offensive players the team drafted in the top 10 in each of the last three drafts: tight end Kyle Pitts (fourth overall pick in 2021), wide receiver Drake London (eighth overall pick in 2022) and running back Bijan Robinson (eighth overall pick in 2023). In the past, Smith has said that his job as an NFL head coach is about finding a way to win, not about playing fantasy football. However, bringing in three of the team's most talented playmakers certainly could have helped an offense that averaged 19.6 points per game in 2023, the ninth-worst offense in the league.
Ron Rivera's time with the Washington Commanders is now over as he has been released by the franchise. The team went 4-13 this season in Year 1 of the Commanders' new ownership group led by Josh Harris. The Commanders defense, Rivera's side of the ball, was consistently the worst in the NFL in 2023.
Possible vacancies
There have been at least five new head coaches in each of the last 11 years. As for teams that could join the Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Falcons and Commanders with openings, two teams come to mind: New England Patriots and Chicago Bears.
There is a real possibility that Bill Belichick will enter the offseason without the title he has held as head coach of the New England Patriots since 2000. Dianna Russini of the Athletici reported that the Patriots are scheduling a meeting next week between owner Robert Kraft, team president Jonathan Kraft and Belichick to determine Belichick's future with the team. He reportedly wants to continue coaching, but Russini also wrote that some who work for the team are “expecting change” and are starting to network elsewhere. In addition to the Commanders, the Raiders, who recently hired and fired his former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, are also interested in meeting with him and potentially bringing the architect of the “Patriot Way” west.
Both losses (13) and points per game (13.9) are the worst for the Patriots since the 1992 season, when they went 2-14. The following season, New England fired head coach Dick MacPherson and hired Bill Parcells.
Earlier this season, New England became the first team to lose three straight games by 10 or fewer points allowed since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals nearly 100 years ago. The team has been shut out twice this season. During the Brady era, the Patriots were shut out twice in 20 seasons, including the postseason.
Given that Belichick won an NFL-record six Super Bowls for New England, he had some leeway in the post-Brady era, but aside from a 10-7 year in 2021, New England had in three of the four Seasons with a losing record years Brady is gone. Due to a lack of success on the field and poor roster construction that has forced Belichick to make multiple free agency expenditures to cover up poor draft classes, his time in New England may be up.
The Chicago Bears could also potentially be in the market for a new head coach if they decide to move on from head coach Matt Eberflus, who held the job for 10-24 seasons over two seasons. Eberflus made a name for himself as the former defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts, but his Bears defense was the worst in the NFL on third down and allowed opponents to convert first downs at a rate of 43.8%.
His coaching team in Chicago also failed to persuade out quarterback Justin Fields, the 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, to play efficiently while failing to protect him up front. Fields has the highest pressure rate (46.2%) and highest sack rate (12.4%) among 38 qualified quarterbacks since 2021.
Justin Fields career NFL ranks as of 2021
Comp Pct | 60.3%` | 35 |
Sack part | 12.4% | Last |
Part under pressure | 46.2% | Last |
INT pts | 3.1% | 37 |
* Out of 38 qualified QBs in the range
Here is a brief analysis of what awaits potential candidates for each open head coaching position.
New hires and firings in the NFL
Carolina Panthers | France | Bryce Young's 5.5 yards per pass attempt in 2023 ranked as the fourth-worst in NFL history with at least 500 pass attempts. He also ranked last in the NFL in passer rating (73.7) in his rookie year. Anyone who takes this job needs a contractual guarantee from owner David Tepper that they will get at least a few years. Under Tepper, they had six different head coaches in six seasons. The franchise had four of them in its first 23 seasons. | |
Las Vegas Raiders | Josh McDaniels | Whoever takes this job has building blocks on both sides of the ball in All-Pro wideout Davante Adams and Pro Bowl defensive end Maxx Crosby. However, the quarterback of the future is likely not on the roster, and the AFC West will be without Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for the foreseeable future. | |
Los Angeles Chargers | Brandon Staley | The Chargers are the rare team with a vacant coaching position whose franchise quarterback has been secured by Justin Herbert. The problem is that much of the squad is injury-prone and/or expensive. Pro Bowl defensive player Joey Bosa has not had double-digit games in each of the last two seasons. Wide receiver Mike Williams suffered a torn ACL in three games in 2023. Center Corey Linsley has battled a number of injuries since his career as a Charger. Los Angeles is estimated to be about $35 million over the salary cap in 2024, so they need to move on from their roster as quickly as possible. Like the Raiders, they also have a Chiefs problem. | |
| Atlanta Falcons | Arthur Smith | The Falcons are pretty well stocked in terms of their offensive personnel, aside from their glaring hole at quarterback, where Desmond Ridder clearly isn't the answer. They could use some wide receiver depth behind Drake London, but a trio of London, Robinson and Pitts is a good start. Upgrades along their aging front seven would help, but their secondary has two strong safeties: Jessie Bates III and cornerback AJ Terrell. The team can spend ($34.1 million in cap space) and accumulate draft capital in the first five rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft, starting with the eighth overall pick. | |
| Washington commanders | Ron Rivera | Keeping Rivera's job seemed like a long shot with the new ownership group coming on board and likely wanting to put their own stamp on things. As the season progressed, Rivera gave them no reason to stay as they ended up with one of the worst records in the league and arguably the worst defense in the NFL. As for the job itself, there are some interesting players on the roster and the Commanders have the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which could mean a possible franchise quarterback like UNC's Drake Maye. Washington is also said to have over $78 million in cap space, which is currently the highest in the NFL |