The World's Greatest Power (United States); the most populous country (India); the largest (Russia); the largest trading bloc (the European Union); the largest Muslim country (Indonesia); the largest Spanish-speaking country (Mexico); the territory (Taiwan) that poses the greatest risk of confrontation between the two superpowers of this century (China and the United States). All of them will be voted on in 2024, a year with an extraordinary alignment of the electoral stars. Around 70 countries with a total population of more than 3.7 billion – almost half of the world's 8,100 inhabitants – plan to hold presidential or parliamentary elections. The opinion of the surveys will have far-reaching consequences. About the lives of these people and, beyond that, about a world that is going through a turbulent and unstable time, with brutal wars like those in Gaza and Ukraine, with an old order dominated by the West that is dying without a new order taking hold .
On a geopolitical level, this election cycle can have a big impact. It is enough to think about what a return of Donald Trump to the White House, a third victory in Taiwan by candidates Beijing considers hostile, or a strong rise of the far right in the European Union would mean to see how profound the situation is deployment. All three are perfectly plausible prospects, the realization of which would represent a real electric shock that would spread throughout the global nervous system. But in addition to those mentioned, there are many other relevant calls. From the parliamentary elections in Pakistan – an unstable nuclear power – to those in Iran, from the presidential elections in Venezuela to those in Ukraine – Volodymyr Zelensky's mandate expires in March 2024, but given the war situation, it is unclear when celebrations will take place.
Against this background, the situation of the major elections in 2024 will be an important testing ground for democracy in the world. The most important international studies consistently point to a global deterioration in the quality of democracy, with numerous extreme setbacks – such as coups in several African countries – or moderate setbacks with weakening, causing many societies to move from a healthy democratic environment to a fragile, in which guarantees weaken and the terrain of competition shifts in favor of whoever holds power. In this sense, there will be relevant evidence. Aside from pure electoral farces like the one in Russia, it will be important to see what happens in the United States, where Trump tried to undermine his defeat in 2020, or in India, where opponents and international observers report worrying setbacks.
United States: the secret of Trump. The presidential elections next November have immense potential for disruption. There is a real possibility that Trump will become the Republican nominee and return to the White House. The conservative formation didn't know how to turn the tide after the 2020 defeat and the tycoon's embarrassing reaction, and today there is no candidate with the strength to be confident that they can overtake him. At the same time, on the Democratic side, Joe Biden appears determined to seek re-election. Although his record is seen as positive by many experts, polls show he does not have much electoral appeal, perhaps because of the signs of his advanced age or because of the damage to purchasing power caused by high inflation during his time in office.
A return of Trump to the White House would represent a risky upheaval, a step toward American isolationism at a time when rival powers are challenging, in more or less subversive ways, the world order created by Washington. With successes and failures, Biden has been a powerful force to revitalize the network of U.S. alliances and the connection between democracies. He pushed for strong support for Ukraine, promised more clearly than any other president to protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack and assured his European and Asian allies of the United States' commitment.
Trump would represent a break from this scenario. His “America First” doctrine means limiting efforts and costs in distant horizons; His commitment to Taiwan if it is attacked, to support Ukraine or to maintain guarantees for Europe is questionable. New trade wars would be likely (also with the EU), a retreat from climate change commitments (as Biden took steps forward) and various forms of multilateralism and international institutions. It is not reassuring to consider what conclusions China, Russia or Iran would draw from an American presidency less willing to accept the costs and sacrifices of international projection. There have been major failures here in the past, but it is worth measuring what would have happened without it since the end of the Second World War, for example in Western Europe or the Indo-Pacific.
Taiwan: in the eyes of Beijing. Although it is not the second most important area on the list for elections in 2024 in economic or demographic terms, its geopolitical relevance is. The island has a complex political system full of nuances regarding its relations with Beijing. But there's a pretty clear dilemma. A victory for the Kuomintang, which opposes rupturistic gestures and seeks better relations with Beijing, would likely de-escalate the situation. It remains to be seen what consequences a policy of relying less on strengthening defense capabilities would have in the medium and long term. On the other hand, a new victory – it would be the third in a row – of the Democratic Progressive Party (PDP), bearer of a more assertive Taiwanese identity committed to deepening relations with the United States and strengthening defense, would lead to this is seen in Beijing as evidence that the island's citizens are moving away from the conciliatory positions of the Kuomintang. No one knows how this element would factor into the Chinese Communist Party's strategic calculations.
Xi Jinping has clearly signaled that he sees reunification as an essential part of his political project. On the other hand, it has ordered its armed forces to reach a new level of operational capability by 2027. There is no doubt that Beijing would prefer to avoid a conflict with potentially very damaging consequences. Even if reunification were achieved relatively smoothly militarily, severe economic consequences would likely complicate the path to prosperity, a fundamental element of the Chinese Communist Party's tacit pact: the surrender of freedoms in exchange for economic progress. But if the goal of reunification with Taiwan becomes distant, will Xi be willing to give it up? Would a Trump presidency and a PDP presidency be Beijing's best opportunity?
Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's current vice president and future presidential candidate, in Taipei on Dec. 3. Annabelle Chih (Getty Images)
European Union: Progress and Setbacks. Other elections of great importance and with global consequences are the European Parliament elections in June. The result will shape the new chamber, the possible legislative majorities and also influence the composition of the EU's new leadership. The central data is intended to examine how far the right-wing extremist wave will go. The average of polls compiled by the newspaper Politico points to a rise of the two ultra groups and a decline of the traditional European families: popular parties, social democrats, liberals and greens. Nevertheless, they will retain a comfortable majority. The crux of the question is how far an eventual coalition between popular and far-right groups would be from forming an alternative majority. In early December, that gap was only about twenty in Politico's seat forecast. Depending on how the picture develops, the EPP group, which favors cooperation with the ultras, could have more or fewer arguments against the moderates, which are dissatisfied with this perspective.
An absolute right-wing majority is not likely, but even if it were not achieved, simply strengthening the Ultras would have consequences. Convergence has already been seen in the current legislative period, and on certain issues – such as the fight against climate change – the right-wing constellation has been an influential force. With more MPs, this scenario could repeat itself, due to the sheer size of the number, and also due to a possible indirect impact on an EPP, which, given the advance of the ultra-parties, could be tempted to take over their discourse even more than already and cool its willingness to continue European integration. What happens in the EU does not only affect its approximately 450 million citizens. It is projected on a global scale by the bloc's large commercial weight – will it remain open in an EU where nationalists are increasingly influential? – its regulatory influence, its ability as an environmental reference. And of course at regional level: will the EU be ready to move forward on the path of enlargement while a dozen countries are in the waiting room? How far will support for Ukraine go?
Russia and Ukraine: Ballot boxes in war. Both Ukraine and its aggressor Russia had an electoral calendar that called for presidential elections to be held in March. In the first case, the war and the applicable martial law suggest that the call will be postponed. However, the debate over whether or not to hold them has been lively in recent months, and there are relevant voices in the United States – fundamental supporters of Kiev – who are in favor of holding them. In the case of Russia, it is a pantomime in which nothing other than a victory for Putin can be expected. Although Zelensky and Putin remain at the top, the political circumstances are delicate. In such a complex conflict, every political agitation is relevant.
India and Pakistan: Nationalism and Tension. The world's most populous country, the world's fifth largest economy, an increasingly prominent player on the geopolitical table – as a partner of the United States vis-à-vis China and a reference for which it seeks to be the interests of the global South – will also go to the polls. . Narendra Modi is seeking a third term in office. His leadership is extremely controversial. India has achieved significant economic growth and improved its geopolitical forecasts in recent years. But his push for Hindu nationalism raises enormous fears about the marginalization of minorities – particularly the roughly 200 million Muslims – and his style of government is seen not only by opponents but also by many as deeply destructive to the quality of democracy. Studies from renowned western centers. A third term for Modi could represent a new, consistent step that moves India away from the secular and inclusive logic of its constitution and sharpens its geopolitical activism on a global scale.
Also planned are general elections in India's turbulent neighbor Pakistan, a nuclear power plagued by a severe economic crisis and high political tensions, including arrests and assassination attempts on political leaders. Following the dissolution of Parliament, the elections were due to take place within 90 days, but were postponed twice and are now scheduled for February. The country of around 240 million people has enormous strategic depth not only because of its nuclear arsenal, but also because of its close ties with China. The Beijing-Islamabad axis is New Delhi's biggest concern.
From Indonesia to South Africa. There will be many more very interesting elections in 2024. In Mexico, the mandate of Andrés Manuel López Obrador is ending and it will be known whether and under what conditions Claudia Sheinbaum can continue the action of the left-wing leader or whether there will be a change. In Indonesia, Joko Widodo, a very popular president, is coming to the end of his second term in office and an uncertain competition looms. Widodo has not made an explicit statement, but the fact that his eldest son is a candidate for vice president to Prabowo Subianto clearly indicates his preference. The latter ran in the previous presidential elections and lost without clearly accepting defeat, but was later co-opted by Widodo with a ministerial post. There are also likely to be elections in the UK, with the deadline ending in January 2025. A Conservative party sinking in the polls and a Labor party led by Keir Starmer will compete for the leadership. The difference in economic policy would be significant and there could be some more flexibility with the EU, but a significant change in policy would not be expected in this section. In Africa, the call for South Africa, the continent's second largest economy, is noteworthy. The African National Congress is suffering significant attrition after a long period in power marked by serious episodes of corruption, but it is more than possible that it will continue to govern. In Asia, the legislative measures in Iran are worth highlighting. Although power rests primarily with the Supreme Leader and secondarily with the President, it is clear that the electoral process will be a test for a regime suffering from deep popular discontent.
Others will go to the polls. They are all being watched from Beijing by Xi Jinping, the leader of a China that does not bother to hold elections, either real or absurd. The rise of the Asian giant and its relationship with Washington will shape our century. For this reason, the elections in the United States and Taiwan are likely to be the most important within the major electoral cycle scheduled for 2024.
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