The world's largest power (the United States), the most populous country (India), the largest trading bloc (the European Union), the largest Muslim country (Indonesia), the largest Spanish-speaking country (Mexico), and the areas where The biggest risk of a confrontation between the two superpowers this century (Taiwan) will be held in 2024.
Around 70 countries – with a total population of more than 3.7 billion, or almost half of the world's population – plan to hold presidential or parliamentary elections next year. The polls' verdict will have profound consequences for people's lives and for a world that is going through a turbulent period, with brutal wars being waged against Ukraine and Gaza while the West falls into decline (with no clear replacement).
On a geopolitical level, this election cycle may have larger implications. A return of Donald Trump to the White House, a third victory in Taiwan by candidates Beijing considers hostile, or a strong rise of the far right in the European Union could have far-reaching consequences.
In addition to these cases, there are many other relevant upcoming elections. These range from the parliamentary elections in Pakistan – an unstable nuclear power – to those in Iran; from the possible presidential elections in Venezuela to those in Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky's mandate expires in March 2024, but given the Russian invasion, it is unclear when the elections will actually take place.
The situation of the major elections in 2024 will be an important testing ground for democracy in the world. Studies consistently point to a global decline in democratic quality, with numerous extreme setbacks – such as coups in several African countries – or moderate setbacks, with problems causing many societies to slide from a healthy democratic environment to a more fragile one.
Aside from pure electoral farces like the one in Russia, it will be important to see what happens in the United States, where Trump tried to undermine his defeat in 2020, or in India, where opponents of the Modi government and international observers are reporting worrying setbacks.
The US presidential elections next November hold immense potential for disruption. The likelihood that Trump will become the Republican nominee and return to the White House is high. The conservative establishment didn't know how to turn the tide after the 2020 defeat and the tycoon's embarrassing response… and four years later, there is no candidate with the muscle to unseat him. At the same time, on the Democratic side, Joe Biden appears determined to seek re-election. All polls show his appeal is low, perhaps because of his advanced age or because of the damage caused by the highest inflation in four decades.
A return of Trump to the White House would be a revolution with risks. It would be a step toward American isolationism at a time when rival powers are challenging the world order created by Washington in more or less subversive ways. Biden has tried to revitalize the traditional network of U.S. alliances: He pushed for strong support for Ukraine, promised more clearly than any previous president to protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack, and reassured his European and Asian allies that the United States Commitment to security and trade relations.
Trump would represent a break from this scenario. His “America First” doctrine means limiting efforts and costs in distant horizons. It is questionable whether he would commit to supporting Taiwan if it were attacked or whether he would maintain funding and security guarantees to Ukraine and NATO. New trade wars would be just as likely as a withdrawal from commitments against climate change. It is worth considering what conclusions China or Russia would draw from an American presidency less willing to shoulder the costs of an international project.
In this sense: Taiwan is in Beijing's eye. Although the island does not have the largest population or the largest economy, it is extremely relevant geopolitically. It has a complex political system full of nuances regarding its relations with Beijing. But there is a pretty clear dilemma: a Kuomintang (KMT) victory – in favor of better relations with Beijing – would likely de-escalate the situation. It remains to be seen what consequences a policy of relying less on strengthening defense capabilities would have in the medium and long term. On the other hand, a third consecutive victory for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – carriers of a more assertive Taiwanese identity committed to deepening ties with the United States and strengthening defense – would be seen in Beijing as evidence that the island's citizens deviate from the conciliatory stance of the KMT. No one knows how this outcome would factor into the Chinese Communist Party's strategic calculations.
President Xi Jinping has clearly signaled that he sees reunification as an essential part of his political project. He has ordered his armed forces to reach a new level of operational capability by 2027. Still, there is no doubt that Beijing would prefer to avoid a conflict with potentially damaging consequences. Even if the government achieved reunification militarily with relative ease, severe economic consequences would likely complicate its path to prosperity. This is crucial because unhindered growth is a fundamental element of the Chinese Communist Party's tacit pact to give up freedoms in exchange for economic progress. But would Xi really give up his goal of reunification? And would a Trump presidency and a DPP presidency be the best opportunity for Beijing to strike?
Lai Ching-te – the current vice president of Taiwan and the DPP's presidential candidate – in Taipei, December 3, 2023. Annabelle Chih (Getty Images)
Elections to the European Parliament will take place in all 27 member states in June 2024. The results will shape the new chamber, with possible new legislative majorities that will influence how the EU is run. One wonders how high the right-wing extremist wave will go.
The average of polls compiled by Politico suggests a rise in the two far-right blocs and a decline in support among traditional European conservatives, Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens. Still, the latter groups are likely to retain a comfortable majority. The crux of the question is to see whether an eventual coalition between populist and far-right groups could form an alternative majority. In early December, the gap between extremists and moderates in Politico's seat forecast was only about 20 seats (out of 720).
An absolute majority for the right in the European Parliament is unlikely. But even if this fails, increasing the influence of the right-wing extremist pads would have greater consequences. Convergence has already been noted in the current legislative period. On certain issues – for example, the fight against climate change – the right has influential forces. With more extremist MPs, there is the possibility of a scenario in which the centre-right assumes a tougher discourse against environmental regulations. And it is unclear whether the EU, with a larger far-right camp, would be able to move forward in admitting the dozen countries that are candidates for membership or continue to support Ukraine.
Speaking of Ukraine, both the invaded country and the invader – Russia – must hold elections in March. In the case of Ukraine, given the war and martial law, it is likely that the vote will be postponed. However, debate over whether they should take place has been lively in recent months. There are relevant voices in the United States – a country fundamental to the government in Kiev – that advocate detaining her. In the case of Russia, nothing other than a victory for Putin can be expected. Even if Zelensky and Putin remain at the top, the political circumstances are still delicate. In such a complex conflict, every political agitation is relevant.
In the Global South, nationalism and tensions are widespread in Pakistan and India. In India – the world's most populous country, the world's fifth-largest economy and a partner of the United States – Prime Minister Narendra Modi will try to win a third term. His leadership is extremely controversial. In recent years, India has achieved significant economic growth and expanded its geopolitical influence… but its push for Hindu nationalism is raising enormous fears about the safety of minorities, particularly some 200 million Muslims and 200 million Dalits (those who belong to the lower class). the Hindu caste system). Modi's style of government is seen as highly destructive to democracy by both his domestic opponents and international human rights organizations. A third term for Modi – who has ruled since 2014 – could represent another step that moves India away from the secular and inclusive logic of its constitution and sharpens its geopolitical activism on a global scale.
General elections are also planned for India's restive neighbor Pakistan – a nuclear power plagued by a severe economic crisis and high political tensions, including arrests and assassination attempts on political leaders. Following the dissolution of Parliament in August, elections were due to take place within 90 days but were postponed twice. They are now scheduled for February. The country of around 240 million people has enormous strategic depth not only because of its nuclear arsenal, but also because of its close ties with China. The Beijing-Islamabad axis is New Delhi's biggest concern.
From Indonesia to South Africa, there will be many more exciting elections in 2024. In Mexico, the mandate of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is ending: it is unclear whether his ally Claudia Sheinbaum – the former head of government of Mexico City – will be able to continue the actions of the left-wing leader, or whether another party takes power. In Indonesia, Joko Widodo – a very popular president – will complete his second term. There is a threat of uncertain competition. Widodo has not explicitly endorsed it, but the fact that his eldest son is the vice presidential candidate on Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto's list shows his preference. Subuanto ran in the previous presidential election and lost without conceding defeat, but was later courted by Widodo and given a ministerial post.
The UK is also likely to hold an election next year as the deadline is January 2025. The incumbent Conservative Party – which is weakening in the polls – faces a Labor Party led by Keir Starmer. The difference in economic policy is significant and there are differences in how each party views UK-EU relations. However, a significant change in course would not be expected regardless of the result.
Elections are also taking place in South Africa – the continent's second largest economy. The African National Congress (ANC) is suffering from significant attrition, having been in power continuously since 1994. Nevertheless, it is more than possible that Mandela's party will continue to govern despite serious episodes of corruption. And parliamentary elections are taking place in Iran. While power lies primarily with the supreme leader rather than the president, the polls will be a test of a regime suffering from popular discontent.
Many other nations will go to the polls next year. And they are all being closely watched from Beijing by Xi Jinping, the leader of a country that doesn't bother to hold elections, either real or absurd. The rise of the Asian giant and its relationship with Washington will shape our century. For this reason, the elections in the United States and Taiwan are likely to be the most important within the major electoral cycle scheduled for 2024.
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