A study prepared by the European Council's external relations department for the 2024 European Parliament elections predicts a shift to the right and the relative collapse of the centerleft parties and the Greens, which will lose votes and seats.
According to research by the European Council on Foreign Relations, there is a strong trend towards a shift towards a “super coalition” between Christian Democrats, conservatives and rightwing MEPs.
According to this analysis, rightwing populists are expected to lead the polls in nine countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia) and take second or third place in another nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany). , Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden).
The results of the study show that the two largest political groups in Parliament the European People's Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are expected to continue losing seats. This has already happened in the last two elections and reflects the longterm decline in support for traditional parties and growing support for extremist and smaller parties across Europe, leading to increasing fragmentation of European party systems.
The EU's green policy is at stake
Although the Parliament is not the EU's main foreign policy institution, the way in which the political groups coalesce after the elections and what impact these elections will have on national debates in the Member States will have a significant impact on the performance of the European Commission and the Council to make foreign policy decisions, particularly in implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal.
The authors predict that the rightwing coalition could adopt “anticlimate policy measures” to halt the EU’s green transition.
Important EU environmental laws such as the Nature Conservation Act passed last July were only passed with a narrow majority in the current parliament due to strong opposition campaigns from rightwing groups.
Such controversial legislation would certainly fail in the planned formation of the new parliament.
The results come at a time when farright forces are trying to capitalize on the discontent of farmers, who are frustrated by the burden of green politics and have recently taken to the streets in protest in Germany, France and Romania.
The shift to the right in Europe
Farright parties are increasingly gaining dominance in the national contexts of many European capitals, a trend that is expected to continue in national politics and at the European level into 2024.
The predicted rise of the far right also comes despite mass participation in antiright protests in Germany, the Union's largest member state. The demonstrations were triggered by reports that representatives of the country's largest rightwing extremist political force, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), had met to discuss possible mass deportations of people of foreign origin from Germany.
One of the coauthors of the ECFR report, Dr. Kevin Cunningham said such farright protests are likely to have “minimal” impact in the election.
Although European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said she was confident the main parties could avoid a farright wave, the report's authors say the findings should be a “wakeup call” for centrist forces:
“Mainstream political parties need to wake up and take stock of voters’ demands,” said Professor Simon Hix, one of the report’s authors.
Parliament's farright faction Identity and Democracy (ID) is expected to win an impressive 40 seats in June's vote, boosted by growing support for Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National in France and the AfD in Germany, as well as the recent Election victory for Geert Wilder's Freedom Party in the Dutch elections in November.
The European conservatives and reformists which include Spain's Vox, Italy's Fratelli d'Italia and Poland's Law and Justice party are also expected to win around 18 seats.
And Ukraine?
When it comes to foreign affairs, such as EU support for Ukraine, a majority of the next European Parliament is likely to support continuing the kind of financial, logistical and military aid that Western states have approved for Kiev since February 2022. However, there will be a larger number of MPs who will be more sympathetic to Russia.
The report predicts that while Parliament has limited ability to shape the bloc's foreign policy, the outcome of the elections could influence the national debate in a way that could lead some member states to adhere more closely to foreign policy decisions than they would otherwise do. This affects, for example, financial and military support for Ukraine.
There is also a risk that proRussian parties will be represented in the next parliament, the report said, with the proKremlin Bulgarian party on track to win three seats and enter parliament next time.
Support for Ukraine in the rest of Parliament may therefore weaken as national parties begin to respond to the changing opinions of their voters, reflected in their votes in the European Parliament elections.