Russian air strikes kill dozens in Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky admitted that the spring offensive did not have the hopedfor success. Russia still controls about 18% of Ukraine.
We asked three military analysts how they think the conflict could evolve over the next 12 months. In the following texts they express their opinions.
1 of 5 Ukrainian soldier near a cannon in the Bakhmut region of eastern Ukraine Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC Ukrainian soldier near a cannon in the Bakhmut region of eastern Ukraine Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC
The war will drag on, but not forever
Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King's College London
The prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine remains unclear.
Compared to the same period last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin is stronger politically more than militarily.
The situation on the battlefield remains uncertain. Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive appeared to have stalled. But there is no Russian advance either. The outcome depends more than ever on political decisions made miles away from the conflict in Washington and Brussels.
The impressive demonstration of unity by Western countries in 2022, which lasted throughout 2023, is faltering.
The US defense aid package is hostage to what US President Joe Biden described as “petty politics” in Washington. And the future of economic aid from the European Union (EU) apparently depends on Hungary's inappropriate position.
The hesitation in Western capitals encouraged Putin. His recent public appearances and defiant statements show that he believes Russia is in for the long haul.
2 out of 5 Putin has become politically stronger since 2022, says Barbara Zanchetta Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC Putin has become politically stronger since 2022, says Barbara Zanchetta Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC
Will the West therefore have the strength and resistance to continue to oppose him and everything he represents?
The EU's decision to begin negotiations on the membership of Ukraine and Moldova has more than just symbolic significance. This implicitly means continued support for Kiev, as Ukraine's EU future would be impossible with a total Russian victory.
A complete policy reversal in Washington is unlikely.
While it is tempting to project doomsday scenarios for US aid as Trump's popularity rises in the polls, despite all the excitement, the former president did not abandon the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2016.
And he alone would not be able to revolutionize the 75year history of the US transatlantic partnership.
This is not to say that recent divisions in the Western camp have not been felt. The year 2024 will be more difficult for Western countries and therefore for Ukraine.
It has always been more difficult for democracies to achieve longterm consensus in support of war than for autocrats without much control.
Although the war is expected to last until 2024, it cannot last indefinitely.
With the West hesitant to strengthen Russia, and with no coup in sight or health problems that could topple Putin, the only predictable outcome will be a negotiated settlement, which both sides continue to reject for now.
A year of consolidation lies ahead
Michael Clarke, former Director General of the Royal United Services Institute
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brought a major war back to the European continent, and in 2023 the outcome of the conflict was marked by the return of an Industrial Agestyle war.
War in the industrial age mobilizes significant segments, in some cases entire economies, to primarily produce war materials.
Russia's defense budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year.
This makes the war in Ukraine a longer and more traumatic undertaking than any episode Europe has experienced since the middle of the last century.
The next year will show whether Russia and its suppliers in North Korea and Iran, or Ukraine and its Western backers, are able and willing to meet the insatiable demands of industrialage warfare.
3 of 5 Paramedics evacuate an injured person after a bomb attack in Kramatorsk Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC Paramedics evacuate an injured person after a bomb attack in Kramatorsk Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC
It would be wrong to say that the fronts in Ukraine are deadlocked, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill and this time is being used to take strategic initiatives.
Russian forces could attempt to advance again along the entire front to secure at least the Donbass region. Ukraine will likely seek to build on the success it had in restoring control of the western Black Sea and the key Bosphorus trade corridor.
And Kiev will probably also try to provoke further military surprises against the Russian invaders in order to unbalance them in some areas.
But essentially, it seems that 2024 will be a year of consolidation for both Kiev and Moscow.
Russia lacks equipment and trained forces to launch a strategic offensive until spring 2025 at the earliest.
4 out of 5 Ukrainian soldier uses a grenade launcher towards Avdiivka on the Donbass frontline Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC Ukrainian soldier uses a grenade launcher towards Avdiivka on the Donbass frontline Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC
Meanwhile, Ukraine needs Western funding and military support to stay at war for the next year while developing its internal forces to set the stage for a series of liberation offensives in the future.
War in the industrial age is a battle between societies. What happens on the battlefield ultimately becomes just a symptom of that struggle.
The military course of this war in 2024 will be determined in Moscow, Kiev, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang, and not in Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the front lines.
Ben Hodges, former commanding general of the US Army in Europe
Russia lacks the decisive and innovative ability to dominate Ukraine and will do its utmost to maintain its current position by using the time to strengthen its defenses while it waits for Western countries lose the will to continue supporting Ukraine.
But Ukraine will not stop: the country is fighting for its survival and knows what Russia will do if it stops.
Meanwhile, more and more European countries are talking about the need to increase aid, fearing that the US is weakening its commitment.
However, I assume that the US will find the backbone of its strategy at the beginning of the new year and pass the aid package [à Ucrânia] which stalled in the US Congress in December.
Therefore, I expect Ukraine to do the following in the coming months as it prepares to resume the offensive:
- Reassemble units depleted by months of fighting that will be necessary for a new offensive.
- Improving the recruitment system in Ukraine to maximize available forces;
- increasing the production of ammunition and weapons;
- Strengthened counterintelligence capabilities of Russia's electronic warfare capabilities jamming, interception, localization.
At the beginning of next summer, Ukraine will be able to use USmade F16 fighters for the first time. This is expected to improve its ability to combat Russian aircraft.
The most strategically important part of Ukraine that remains occupied by Russia is Crimea, what we call “crucial terrain.”
5 out of 5 There are great expectations regarding the US Congress's decision on US aid to Ukraine Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC. There are great expectations regarding the US Congress's decision on US aid to Ukraine Photo: Getty Images/Via BBC
Ukraine will do everything it can to maintain pressure on the Russians to make the situation untenable for the Russian Navy in Sevastopol, the few air bases and the logistics base in Dzanköy.
There have already been some demonstrations of this plan.
With only three Storm Shadow cruise missiles supplied by the United Kingdom, the Black Sea Fleet commander was forced to withdraw a third of his fleet from Sevastopol.
Of course, the Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources, especially artillery ammunition and longrange precision weapons.
But the Russian soldiers are doing worse. War is a test of will and logistics. The Russian logistics system is fragile and is under constant pressure from Ukraine.