BEIRUT (AP) — Forty years after one of the deadliest attacks on U.S. troops in the Middle East, some are warning that Washington could be heading toward a new conflict in the region.
On October 23, 1983, a suicide bomber struck an American military barracks at Beirut International Airport, killing 241 U.S. soldiers, most of them Marines – still the deadliest attack on Marines since the Battle of Iwo Jima in World War II. An almost simultaneous attack on French forces killed 58 paratroopers.
Washington blames the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah for the bombings, a claim the Iranian-backed Hezbollah denies. U.S. and French forces were in Beirut as part of a multinational force deployed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. The force oversaw the withdrawal of Palestinian fighters from Beirut and remained afterward to help a Western-backed government at the time. The bombing triggered a U.S. withdrawal from Lebanon.
In the context of a war between Israel and its enemies, the United States is now deploying troops to the region again.
The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford has been positioned along with other American warships in the eastern Mediterranean – a second carrier is on the way – in what is widely seen as a message to Iran and Hezbollah not to open new fronts as Israel fights Hamas.
Long-standing tensions between the US and Iran have been exacerbated by the two-week war between Israel and Hamas, during which the Palestinian militant group’s surprise attack on southern Israeli cities on October 7 led to a devastating Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip.
There is a risk that the war will escalate into a larger regional conflict. The greatest concern is the Lebanese-Israeli border, where Israel and Hezbollah come under daily fire.
But there are other places where the US could be drawn directly into the fight. Around 2,500 US soldiers are deployed in Iraq and around 900 more in eastern Syria against the Islamic State terrorist militia. Iran has loyal militias in both countries that have opened fire on the Americans since the Gaza war broke out.
A Hezbollah supporter named Haj Mohammed posted a video on Tiktok on October 13 that drew an ominous parallel between the barracks bombing 40 years ago and today’s events.
“It appears that Uncle Joe did not tell the commanders of these warships and aircraft carriers about the events of October 23, 1983,” the man said, referring to President Joe Biden. He sat in front of a poster of Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock and wondered aloud whether U.S. troops would return home in coffins.
Iran-backed groups have issued threats against the United States if it joins the war on Israel’s side.
Senior Hezbollah official Hachem Safieddine said in a speech that there were tens of thousands of fighters in the region “whose fingers are on the trigger.”
The commander of a powerful Iran-backed militia in Iraq posted a photo of himself on social media standing on the Lebanese-Israeli border, apparently showing his fighters are ready for war.
If the US intervenes directly in the war between Israel and Hamas, “then the American presence in the region will become legitimate targets for resistance fighters, whether in Iraq or elsewhere,” said commander Abu Alaa al-Walae of Iraq’s Kataib Sayyid al -Shuhada. – said Al-Mayadeen TV from Beirut.
Since Wednesday, suicide drones and missiles have hit several US troop bases in Iraq and Syria. The attacks were either claimed by or blamed on Iran-backed militias.
A U.S. Navy warship on Thursday intercepted three missiles and several drones fired by Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen, possibly at targets in Israel, the Pentagon said.
American forces could also come under attack if Israel launches a ground invasion of Gaza and appears to be destroying Hamas as it has promised.
An official from an Iran-backed group warned that Iran’s allies could spark conflict across the Middle East if Israel tries to completely defeat Hamas. He said the volleys on U.S. forces should have sent that message. The official spoke on condition that he and his group not be identified because he was not authorized to comment publicly.
After a trip to the region in which he met leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iran’s foreign minister warned in mid-October that “preventative measures were possible” if Israel moved closer to a ground offensive and that Israel would suffer as a result “A huge earthquake.”
On Sunday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Washington expects an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war through the involvement of Iran’s proxies, adding that the Biden administration is prepared to respond if American personnel or forces would be targeted.
“This is not what we want, not what we are looking for. We don’t want any escalation,” Blinken said. “We do not want our forces or personnel to come under fire. But if that happens, we are prepared for it.”
Austin said they see the “prospect of a significant escalation in attacks on our troops and people across the region.”
Biden has repeatedly warned Israel’s enemies not to take advantage of the situation with one word: “Don’t do it.”
Iran leads the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” which includes Tehran-backed factions from Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as Syria. Hezbollah, the most powerful group in Lebanon, has tens of thousands of rockets and missiles and an arsenal of drones, posing a serious threat if the group fully joins the war against Israel.
Still, many analysts believe a full-scale regional war that could plunge the U.S. and Iran into direct confrontation is unlikely.
“Until this moment, both sides do not want confrontation” and communicate this to each other, said Iranian political scientist and political science professor Emad Abshenass about Tehran and Washington.
But “the situation could turn upside down” if the Israeli army enters Gaza and could probably defeat Hamas, Abshenass said.
In 1983, the barracks bombing was seen as a lesson in how dangerous it is for the United States to be caught in the middle of a conflict between Israel and one of its neighbors.
Sam Heller of the Century Foundation said, as he did in 1983, “I don’t believe the U.S. forces that the Biden administration has sent to the region are sufficient to truly intimidate and deter local actors.”
“Iran and its allies are exposed in their own way,” Heller said, but they “have very serious capabilities today that could be used against U.S. targets across the region.”
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