Before the Detroit Lions take on the Green Bay Packers, all eyes will be on the 4:25 p.m. ET matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. In order for the Lions to play for a playoff spot on Sunday Night Football, the Seahawks must either lose or draw that football game.
On the surface, it looks like a tall order. The Seahawks are playing for their own playoff lives – they need a win and a Lions win to make it – while the 5-11 Rams are injured, have no identity and are just proud to play for them on Sunday. Seattle is also a 6.5-point favorite according to DraftKings Sportsbook, so the prospects don’t look good.
However, I am here to tell you not to give up hope. There’s a reasonable chance the Rams can cause an upset here. And I’m not going to back up my points with platitudes like “Division games are weird” or emotional narratives like “Bobby Wagner’s revenge game” or “Rams rally for Sean McVay’s possible last game?”.
no Here are five cold, hard facts and reasons the Rams could win Sunday.
The Seahawks’ home advantage wasn’t strong this year
The Seahawks have had one of the strongest home field court advantage in the NFL in years, but that wasn’t the case in 2022. They are only 4-4 in Seattle this year and have lost three of their last four at Lumen Field.
Well, it’s worth noting that only one of the Rams’ five wins this season has come through, but considering Los Angeles often has to remain silent at home, they’re certainly prepared for some elements.
The Rams can run the ball. The Seahawks struggle to stop the run
Despite all the injuries on the offensive line, the Rams have been able to build up a pretty decent rushing attack over the past few months. Taking center stage is Cam Akers, who finally looks like himself after tearing his Achilles tendon last season. In his last seven games, Akers has had 105 rushes for 506 yards (4.82 YPC) and six touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have one of the worst-managed defenses in the league. As of week 10, they are ranked 29th in running defense DVOA. And for the season, they rank 30th in rushing yards per game allowed (150.5) and 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.8).
Big surprise, but it’s supposed to rain in Seattle on Sunday. The ground game could be very important.
The Rams almost beat them a month ago
The two teams played each other in Week 13, and the Rams almost walked away with that win despite holding just a 3-8 record to Seattle’s 6-5 record. With 2:56 left in the game, Akers hit the go-ahead touchdown to take a 23-20 lead. Unfortunately, Geno Smith would lead the Seahawks to an 11-play 75-yard drive and victory.
It’s worth noting that the Rams’ quarterback in that game was John Wofford, and he played terribly. He went just 14 of 26 for 178 yards and two interceptions. Will the Rams win this game with Baker Mayfield? I think we’ll see this Sunday.
The Seahawks can’t avoid rushing
The Rams’ biggest downfall right now is their pass protection. They rank 27th in PFF’s pass blocking, have given up the fourth most sacks in the NFL, and rank 31st in press percentage allowed.
Luckily, the Seahawks don’t pose much of a threat in that department. Yes, they got four sacks in the previous matchup, but week-over-week this is one of the worst pass rushes in the league. They rank 28th in the PFF pass rush class, 30th in pass rush win rate, and 19th in print percentage.
Mayfield, who can be a decent quarterback when kept clean (103.9 passer rating with a clean pocket per PFF), might be having a more comfortable day than usual.
Clearly, the Rams were the better team last month
In the last four weeks since the Rams took over Baker Mayfield, Los Angeles is 2-2 and the Seahawks 1-3. Granted, the Rams won against the Raiders and Broncos, but it’s been a little over a month since the Seahawks lost to the Raiders at home.
And when you look at some advanced stats over the last month, these two teams are a lot closer than the Vegas line would suggest.
DVOA rankings as of week 14
- Seahawks: 17
- Aries: 19
EPA rankings as of week 14
Offense:
- Seahawks: 24
- Aries: 14
Defense:
- Seahawks: 19
- Aries: 20
Put it together and look at these layers:
I understand that this is a small sample size and the Seahawks have faced a much more difficult schedule (Panthers, 49ers, Chiefs, Jets) during this period. However, it’s worth noting how much better the Rams played with Mayfield at the helm.