Vladimir Putin at the Valdai Discussion Club
Photo: EPA/BBC News Brazil
It feels like I’m watching a scene from a James Bond movie.
Somewhere near Moscow, the President of Russia is on stage and being questioned about the apocalypse. The moderator reminds Putin that he once predicted that the Russians would go to heaven after a nuclear war.
“We’re not in a hurry, are we?” the moderator asks hopefully.
There is a long, uncomfortable pause. Seven seconds of silence.
“Your silence worries me,” says the moderator.
“That was the idea,” Putin replies with a laugh.
Vladimir Putin at the Valdai Discussion Club
Photo: Portal / BBC News Brazil
Forgive me for not laughing. This isn’t a Hollywood blockbuster with a guaranteed happy ending. The events of the past eight months are real drama that have brought untold suffering to Ukraine and many believe the world has never been closer to nuclear conflict since the Cuban Missile Crisis 60 years ago.
So what does the script have in store from now on?
Everything depends on the answer to this question: How far is Vladimir Putin willing to go to achieve victory in Ukraine or avoid defeat?
If you reread the address he gave to the nation on February 24 the speech he gave after ordering the invasion of Ukraine you can conclude that he will do whatever it takes is:
“And now a few important words very important for those who might be tempted to delve into what is going on. Those who try to stand in our way or create threats to our country and our people should be aware: Russia’s response to this will be instantaneous and will have consequences unlike any you have seen in history.”
Outside of Russia, the line “consequences unlike anything you’ve seen in history” was widely interpreted as an obvious nuclear threat. And in the months that followed, the teasing continued.
In April, President Putin “threatened a lightning reaction [se] an outsider trying to interfere and create a strategic threat to Russia. We’ve got all the guns we need to do that.” In September, he added his infamous line: “It’s not a bluff.”
Last week, at the Valdai Discussion Club (the backdrop to that long and worrying hiatus I described earlier), Putin sent mixed signals. He denied wanting to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
How far is Vladimir Putin willing to go to win or avoid defeat in Ukraine?
Photo: EPA/BBC News Brazil
“We see no need for it,” he said. “It makes no sense, neither politically nor militarily.”
But behind the scenes at the Talk Club, there was no escaping this threat.
“There is a risk that Russia will use nuclear weapons. Not against Ukraine, but against the West,” said Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Russian Defense and Foreign Policy Council.
“If a single American missile hits Russian military infrastructure inside Russia, we will take a historic leap toward nuclear Armageddon. According to official Russian nuclear doctrine, Russia would launch a strategic nuclear strike against the US and all NATO countries as soon as possible. We are witnessing the launching of Western missiles into our territory, no matter how armed they are. Then the entire planet will die.”
An alarmist rhetoric? Without a doubt.
A realistic scenario? I’m not sure.
Leaving aside the presidential pauses (probably for dramatic effect) and recent Russian rhetoric, I find it unlikely that the Kremlin is now planning a nuclear escalation in the Ukraine war.
Especially when you consider the following five reasons:
1 Midterm elections in the USA
As the US midterm elections near, the Kremlin knows the GOP has a chance to seize control of Congress.
Supporters of Donald Trump at a rally in Mesa, Arizona on October 9, 2022
Photo: Portal / BBC News Brazil
Earlier this month, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy warned that Republicans will not issue a “blank check” to Ukraine if they regain a majority in the House of Representatives.
That would have sounded like music to Putin’s ears. While it is unclear whether US aid to Ukraine would be significantly affected by a Republican victory, the Kremlin will welcome any prospect of a reduction in US military aid to Kyiv.
The chart shows the countries that have pledged the most aid to Ukraine
Photo: BBC News Brazil
2 Winter in Europe
Apparently, Putin still reckons that, with Russian energy supplies to Europe severely reduced, a cold winter would exacerbate Europe’s energy and livelihood crises, forcing Western governments to come to an agreement with the Kremlin: to reduce their support for Ukraine exchanges against Russian energy.
Dusk in Dnipro, Ukraine, October 27, 2022
Photo: EPA/BBC News Brazil
So far, however, Europe appears to be better prepared for the winter than Moscow expected.
October was milder than usual and the supply of liquefied natural gas increased as a result, gas reserves were replenished and gas prices in Europe fell.
But if the temperatures also drop, the pressure could rise. Most notably in Ukraine, where the Russian military is attacking the country’s energy infrastructure.
3 mobilization
In recent days, Vladimir Putin has taken steps to mobilize all of Russia’s business and industry for the needs of his “military special operation.”
In many ways, it looks like the whole country has been put on the longterm warpath. Perhaps a sign that the Kremlin is now preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine.
4 Mutually Assured Destruction
A Cold War creation that still holds true today: the assumption that if one side launches nuclear weapons, the other side will react the same way and everyone dies. There are no winners in a nuclear war. Vladimir Putin knows that.
All of this is based on the premise that it would be logical to assume that there will be no nuclear component in the Ukraine war.
There’s only one problem. Logic disappeared from here on February 24th. And wars don’t necessarily develop logically.
If there is one thing the Cuban Missile Crisis has taught the world, it is that the planet can suddenly be on the brink of destruction due to miscalculations and miscommunication.
Which brings me to the last reason…
5 error
A Russian reservist says goodbye to his family
Photo: Portal / BBC News Brazil
President Putin’s “special operation” did not go according to plan. What should have taken days weeks at most has been dragging on for months. The Kremlin appears to have completely underestimated the scale of the Ukrainian resistance, misjudged Western support for Kyiv and the tsunami of international sanctions Russia is facing.
And although Putin initially promised that only “professional soldiers” would go into battle, he finally announced a “partial mobilization” of reservists. In addition, in recent weeks, as a result of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian troops have lost part of the territory they occupied.
But there is one thing Vladimir Putin rarely admits: making mistakes. For now, he seems determined to continue this war and achieve something he can call victory.
This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional63484859
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