5 Saturday Picks Including Dodgers vs. Rockies, Astros vs. Angels (April 9)

Saturday marks the first full day of the Major League Baseball season as all 30 teams will be in action.

Games begin with a first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET between the White Sox and the Tigers and continue throughout the night until a first pitch at 9:07 p.m. ET between the Astros and the Angels.

Our analysts have picks throughout the day, including the two games above, and five picks in total. The topic of the day is totals, with four opinions on over/under.

Here are our top five bets from Saturday’s Major League Baseball standings.

MLB Odds & Tips

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

Nick Shlain: Casey Mize doesn’t miss many bats. His 20% strike rate last year was pretty mundane. When hitters touch it, the ball tends to fly.

On his last start in the spring, Mize allowed three home runs plus another flyball onto the warning track. Last season, Mize only allowed right-handed hitters a .116 isolated slugging percentage in 348 plate appearances, but that number rose to .272 in 348 plate appearances against left-handed hitters.

Gavin Sheets, a left-hander, had a .289 isolated slugging percentage in 168 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers last year.

If Sheets is in the lineup, he has as good a chance as anyone in the Chicago lineup of leaving court Saturday afternoon. At +650 there’s certainly plenty of value to be had.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs

Kenny Ducey: OK, so the 2021 season hasn’t been kind to Justin Steele. The 26-year-old left-hander posted a 4.26 ERA and was much worse as a starter than as a helper. Still, we have just one season left (in which he pitched 57 innings) and the former fifth-round pick had a solid minor league track record with a 3.44 ERA.

In addition, there were some positive things from last season. Steele ranked in the 78th percentile on hard-hit and was very good at limiting catastrophic contact, although he was only average in the strikeout and walk departments.

I’m saying all this because I don’t trust a Brewers offense that looked flat Thursday and is carrying a large number of lefties to thrive on Saturday. On the other side of the coin, I certainly don’t expect the Cubs — who have three or maybe four major-league quality sluggers — to succeed against Brandon Woodruff, who had an insane .64 ERA in five starts against Chicago last year .

With Steele helping us, I’m going to go down here – and I feel good about it.

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Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants

Jules Posner: The focus of this match is Marlin’s starter Pablo Lopez.

Lopez is a great pitcher, but he’s almost a full round worse on the street. He’s up against the best home offense of the past year against RHP at the Giants. The Giants were also the best offense at home against RHP in day games.

On the other hand, Carlos Rodon will make his San Francisco Giant debut after a dominant spring. Rodon has struggled with some arm fatigue towards the end of the 2021 season so, more so than other starters, he may have some limitations on his first start.

The Giants made two crucial mistakes in Friday’s game that helped them concede too much money, and against an RH starting pitcher, the Giants will most likely have the same defense in Game 2.

The over is 7.5 runs and BetMGM is -105. It seems like even at 8.5 runs or down to the -120 threshold it’s still a safe play. Daytime baseball by the bay should pick up some points.

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Los Angeles Dodgers versus Colorado Rockies

Doug Ziefel: Historically, Coors Field was a pitcher’s nightmare, and every Rockies staffer was pitched to avoid it as a victim of those circumstances. Finally, however, German Marquez seems to have found his unfriendly limits.

Last season, Marquez had a 3.67 ERA at home and held up his resistance to a .278 wOBA. That’s a drastic improvement from any year before, as his ERA was almost two full runs higher and his previous wOBA was .330.

In addition to his tremendous numbers at Coors, Marquez has also held up well against this daunting Dodgers lineup. Through 161 combined plate appearances, the current Dodgers have hit just .239 against Marquez and accumulated just 10 extra base hits.

Speaking of finding out, Tony Gonsolin found his role on this Dodgers team. Gonsolin is essentially a long relief opener. In 2021, he averaged just 4 1/3 innings per start. However, he was very effective against the Rockies.

His sample size is small, only 34 Colorado batters faced each other, but Statcast awaited statistics on future results. The Rockies only had a .230 xBa and .294 xwOBA against Gonsolin.

Marquez and Gonsolin should combine to keep the at-bats quiet during the early game and give us plenty of room for the full game number. The first five is also worth a look if you find a 5.5 or 6.

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Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels

DJ James: The market doesn’t seem entirely convinced by the healthy returns of some former aces Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard.

Sure, Houston was the best team in MLB against righties in 2021. They held a 116 wRC+ but they also replaced Carlos Correa with Jeremy Peña.

The angels are getting a lot of love this season. A fully healthy Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon will add to their success. However, Rendon has had a bit more problems against right-handers in his career (124 wRC+ vs. 137 wRC+). Those are still phenomenal numbers, but they add to the lead in this game, especially against Verlander.

The rest of the Angels lineup held 91 wRC+, or nine percent below average on offense. With Verlander on the hill, the bottom half of the Angel lineup will struggle.

In 2019, Syndergaard managed a 1.22 WHIP while competing against right-handers. Verlander’s was 0.81.

The bullpens should both be fine, after which these two should go five innings each. Take those under. Runs are offered at an additional cost.

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