The failed insurgency by the Wagner paramilitary group in Russia has caused the worst crisis President Vladimir Putin has faced since he took office. Several questions remain unanswered.
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Where is Prigojine located?
Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigoyine’s last appearance dates back to Saturday night when, to the applause of some residents, he was leaving the Russian city of Rostov (south-west), where he had taken control of a military headquarters.
The Kremlin has vowed that Wagner’s boss had “the word” from Vladimir Putin to leave Russian territory unhindered for Belarus, an ally of Moscow, and that he would not be prosecuted.
However, a source from Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office, quoted by the three main Russian authorities, said on Monday that “the case is ongoing and the investigation is ongoing”.
Russian military blogger Michael Nacke believes that Mr. Prigozhin will set up his base for Wagner in Belarus and continue to lead his group’s operations in Africa.
But “Prigojine has become an extremely vulnerable target: he can be imprisoned, he can be killed,” he told AFP.
· Listen to the interview with Emmanuelle Rousseau, PhD student in the Department of Political Science at the Université de Montréal, affiliated with CÉRIUM, over QUB radio:
What future does Wagner have?
Mr. Prigozhin launched his armed uprising days after Mr. Putin announced that Wagner fighters would now have to sign contracts with the army.
“They wanted to dissolve the group,” Mr. Prigojine denounced on Saturday.
The Kremlin has vowed that the men who followed their leader in his revolt will not be prosecuted in gratitude for their service in Ukraine and that some could sign contracts with the army “if they wish”.
“Wagner could be completely dismantled or absorbed by the army,” believes Michael Kofman, an American military expert.
According to independent Russian analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, “Putin doesn’t need Wagner or Prigozhin.” He can manage on his own. He is now convinced of that.”
What consequences for the generals?
The stated aim of Mr Prigojine’s rebellion was to secure the replacement of Defense Minister Sergei Choïgou and Chief of Staff Valéri Guérassimov.
As of this writing, Vladimir Putin has not announced any changes in the military hierarchy.
Proof that Mr. Choigou, the pet peeve of Wagner’s leader, intends to keep his post, Russian public television showed him on Monday morning in his first public appearance since the aborted uprising, inspecting Russian forces in Ukraine .
Mr. Gerasimov has not made any public appearances since the coup.
“Negative pressure [de Prigojine]”Putin will do nothing,” pro-Kremlin political scientist Sergei Markov told Telegram.
For Rob Lee of the American think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute, however, the recent events “gave the impression that Shoigu and Gerasimov were weak, but also showed how important it is for Putin to have loyal figures who will take care of his military and his security responsible.” Services.
Did Prigozhin act alone?
The observation is staggering: Wagner’s fighters managed in 24 hours to take control of part of Rostov (south-west), a city of more than a million people, and to approach 400 km from Moscow, according to Mr. Prigoyine even 200 km .
Did Mr. Prigoyine, who claims to have taken the army headquarters in Rostov “without a shot”, helped from within, as some believe?
Or was he acting out of desperation, seeing the noose tightening around his group and believing that an agreement with the Kremlin was the only way to get security guarantees?
The words of the first deputy chief of military intelligence (GRU) have caused confusion: in a video published on Saturday, Vladimir Alekseïev calls on the Wagner fighters to end their uprising and appears to be mocking MM. Shoigu and Gerasimov, whom Mr. Prigojine wanted to overthrow.
“Take them away,” he says, accommodating his remark with a wave of his hand.
What are the effects of the offensive in Ukraine?
The mutiny led by Wagner will “in no way” affect the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Moscow has asserted.
But the unrest in the hinterland could at least affect Russian soldiers’ morale as they face weeks of waves of Ukrainian attacks, analysts say.
The Wagner militia was also one of the most experienced forces in the Russian ranks, notably at the forefront of the now-famous Battle of Bachmout (eastern Ukraine).
But on the spot: “Since then [la prise de] Bakhmout [en mai]”The army was much less dependent on Wagner,” says military analyst Michael Kofman.
“Wagner was not used for defense in the south,” one of the main areas where troops from Kiev are currently attempting to breach Russian defenses, he stresses.