PSOE organizing secretary Santos Cerdán, in front, and “former president” Carles Puigdemont, in the middle, during negotiations in Brussels in October on the inauguration of Pedro Sánchez.PSOE/EFE
According to the December barometer of 40 dB, the population’s rejection of the future amnesty leaves no doubt. for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER. In the political sphere, the forgiveness of those accused of the Catalan independence process only meets with understanding among Sumar’s voters and nationalist groups. And by territory only in Catalonia and the Basque Country. Across Spain, almost 60% consider the future law to be unfair and a privilege. None of the arguments put forward by the government in its favor are supported by citizens.
The survey confirms the great response from citizens to the mobilizations against the amnesty promoted by the right. In addition to the almost complete resistance of the PP and Vox electorate to the initiative, there is also the division and contradictory feelings that it creates among socialist voters. EL PAÍS and SER will publish this Tuesday a second part of the barometer, with data on the opinion of Spaniards on the validity of the Constitution. With this different delivery, all internal data from the survey can be viewed on the websites of both media outlets as usual.
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40dB work. He asked his 2,000 respondents to give their opinions on four meanings attributed to the measure of grace, two by its critics—injustice and privilege—and another two—coexistence and integration—by its proponents. The balance of answers is clear. 59.4% agreed with the “privilege” label, compared to 33.4% who rejected it, numbers almost identical to those in the “injustice” section. Regarding the positive characteristics, the results were opposite for “integration” and somewhat more differentiated for “coexistence” (55.2% against and 38% for).
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The opinion of citizens about the reasons that led to the pardon of the independence supporters is also not very friendly to the government. An overwhelming majority of 85% believe that the main reason was to be able to govern, while the executive’s arguments that its aim is to improve coexistence in Catalonia and its relations with the rest of the country convince only 38% and are rejected by them become a 55%. The data that could show greater complacency towards Pedro Sánchez’s pact with the independents is that more than 70% agree that another objective was to prevent the extreme right from coming to power.
Proponents of the future law fail to defend its hypothetical positive consequences. Ideas such as that the proposal already discussed in Congress should improve the coexistence of the autonomous communities, strengthen democracy or restore the spirit of consensus of the transition, only find the support of around 30% of voters. The fact that the amnesty respects constitutional values is rejected by almost half of those surveyed, and only one in four believe that it will guarantee independence supporters a waiver of unilateral measures.
The data suggests that there are only two areas where the clemency measures are well received: Catalonia itself and, to a lesser extent, the Basque Country. And despite everything, there is a wealth of opinions against it. With values above 50%, the Catalans are considered to be the ones who place the most value on improving coexistence. Respondents from both communities top the rankings of those who see potentially positive consequences. This does not include the conviction that the independents will from now on abandon unilateralism. Respondents in Catalonia who share this opinion do not reach 30%.
In the third of the historical nationalities considered, Galicia, the strong opposition in the rest of Spain was moderated, although a majority in favor was not achieved, with Madrid, Castile and León and Andalusia at the top. Galicians appreciate the possibility that the amnesty will benefit national coexistence much more than average. Autonomous elections will take place in Galicia this spring and the PP wants to take full advantage of the controversy over the pardon measures to try to reaffirm the absolute majority it has held in the autonomous parliament since 2009.
When one examines the segmentation of the data by political sympathies, it becomes clear how this issue unites the right-wing electorate. And with a few points difference in the level of opposition between PP and Vox voters. The negative assessments of the future law are in most cases around or above 80%, while those who find a positive impact never reach 15%.
There are contradictory feelings among the PSOE electorate. The elements of rejection are obvious, but mixed with the hope that the amnesty will ultimately bring benefits. This duality is manifested in the evaluation of the four connotations attributed to the law. Among Sánchez voters, the two negatives are highly represented: 58.2% support the label “privilege” and 47% support the label “injustice.” And yet at the same time they agree with the two positive points: “coexistence” 56% and “integration” 50%.
The only parts of the electorate where the 40dB researchers operate. They have found that the majority receives support from Sumar’s sympathizers and nationalist groups. However, the level of his support is far from the level of opposition at the other end of the ideological spectrum. Among Sumar voters, for example, 40% support the “privilege” thesis and almost 35% support the “injustice” thesis. And among the nationalists themselves, both categories are over 30%. In general, this part of the electorate is the one who believes that coexistence in Catalonia and between all autonomous communities will improve, while strengthening Spanish democracy. What nationalist voters are not very convinced of is the fact that the parties with which they sympathize have refrained from going it alone. Only one in four believes that.
Data sheet:
Scope: Spain. Population: General population residing in Spain (except Ceuta and Melilla) aged 18 and over and with the right to vote. Sample size: 2,000 interviews. Quotas by gender, age, autonomous community, living space size and social class. Process: Online interview (CAWI). Sampling error: ±2.2% (for 95% confidence). Completion date: November 24th to 27th, 2023.