NATO on Wednesday estimated that 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in four weeks of war in Ukraine, where fierce resistance from the country’s defenders has denied Moscow a lightning victory.
For comparison: Russia has lost about 15,000 soldiers in Afghanistan in ten years.
A senior NATO military official said the alliance’s estimate was based on information from Ukrainian authorities about what Russia had released — intentionally or not — and information from open sources. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with ground rules established by NATO.
Ukraine has released little information about its own military losses and the West has not provided an estimate, but President Volodymr Zelenskyy said almost two weeks ago that around 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed.
As Russia unleashed its invasion on February 24 in Europe’s biggest offensive since World War II, a swift overthrow of Ukraine’s government seemed likely. But as Wednesday marks four full weeks of fighting, Moscow is mired in a grueling military campaign.
Zelensky – who has caught the world’s attention with ad hoc videos and speeches to lawmakers seeking military aid to his country – used the anniversary to urge people around the world to gather publicly on Thursday, to show her support for Ukraine, saying the war breaks out in the hearts of “every free person on the planet.”
A Ukrainian firefighter sprays water at a shell-damaged house in Kiev Vadim Ghirda/AP
“Come to your squares, your streets. Make yourself visible and audible,” Zelenskyy said in English during an emotional video address to the nation recorded in the dark near the presidential office in Kyiv. “Say that people matter. freedom matters. peace matters. Ukraine is important.”
Zelenskyy appealed in Russian to the Russians “to leave Russia so as not to spend their tax money on the war”. Tens of thousands of Russians have already fled their country since the war began, fearing an increased crackdown on dissent, including the arrests of thousands of anti-war protesters and the suppression of the media.
Zelenskyy, who will speak to NATO members via video on Thursday, also said he called on the alliance to provide Ukraine with “effective and full” support, including any weapons the country needs to ward off the Russian invasion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops are being slowed or stopped by Ukrainian units armed with Western-supplied weapons. Bombing targets from afar, they’re resorting to the tactics they’ve used to raze cities in Syria and Chechnya.
A senior US defense official said Wednesday that Russian ground forces appear to be digging in and setting up defensive positions 9 to 12 miles outside of Kyiv, the capital, as they are making little to no progress toward the city center.
A Ukrainian refugee hugs her daughter after she crossed the border into Romania to escape the war. Andreea Alexandru/AP
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military assessments, said it appeared that forces were no longer attempting to advance into the city and in some areas east of Kyiv Ukrainian troops had pushed Russian soldiers further afield.
Instead, Russian troops appear to be prioritizing fighting in the Donbass region, particularly in Luhansk and Donetsk, to cut off Ukrainian troops and prevent them from moving west to defend other cities, the official said. The US has also seen activity by Russian ships in the Sea of Azov, including apparent efforts to send Landing Crafts ashore with supplies, including vehicles, the official said.
In an ominous sign that Moscow may be considering using nuclear weapons, a senior Russian official said the country’s nuclear arsenal would help deter the West from intervening in Ukraine.
“The Russian Federation is capable of physically destroying any attacker or attacking group within minutes from any distance,” said Dmitry Rogozin, head of state-owned aerospace company Roskosmos, in a televised address. He noted that Moscow’s nuclear stockpile includes tactical nuclear weapons intended for use on the battlefield, along with far more powerful nuclear-tipped ICBMs. Roscosmos oversees missile-making facilities.
US officials have long warned that Russia’s military doctrine provides for an “escalation to de-escalation” option, under which the enemy on the battlefield will be forced to retreat with nuclear weapons when Russian forces are on the brink of defeat. Moscow has denied having any such plans.
A 41-year-old Ukrainian is treated in hospital after being shelled by Russian forces. Evgeny Maloletka/AP
Rogozin is known for his bluster, and he did not make clear what Western actions would be considered interference, but his comments almost certainly reflect the mindset within the Kremlin. Putin has warned the West that trying to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine would draw him into a conflict with Russia. Western nations have said they will not create a no-fly zone to protect Ukraine.
As US President Joe Biden left for Europe to meet with key allies over new sanctions on Moscow and more military aid to Ukraine, he warned of a “real threat” that Russia could use chemical weapons.
On the eve of a meeting with Biden, European Union nations signed another $550 million in military aid to Ukraine.
Zelenskyy appealed to Western countries to remain united with “some partners” to get them on his side in the face of Russia’s efforts to “defend its interests”, noting during his national address that Ukraine has neither warplanes nor received modern air defense systems it requested. He said Ukraine also needs tanks and anti-ship systems.
“It’s been a month of defending ourselves against attempts to destroy us and wipe us off the face of the earth,” he said.
The US has determined that Russian troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine and will work to prosecute the perpetrators, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. He cited evidence of indiscriminate or deliberate attacks on civilians and the destruction of homes, schools, hospitals, shopping malls and other sites.
Nevertheless, important Russian goals remain unfulfilled. Kyiv was repeatedly bombed but not once encircled.
A Russian armored personnel carrier burns in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Marienko Andrew/AP
Nearly constant shelling and gunfire rattled the city on Wednesday, with air raid raid sirens blaring and billows of black smoke billowing from the western outskirts, where the two sides were fighting for control of several suburbs. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said at least 264 civilians had been killed in the capital since the outbreak of war.
The shelling also claimed the life of another journalist on Wednesday. The independent Russian news agency The Insider said Russian journalist Oksana Baulina was killed in a Kiev neighborhood.
To the south, the encircled port city of Mariupol has seen the worst of the war’s devastation, having been bombed for weeks and now fighting street after street. But Ukrainian forces have prevented their fall, thwarting an apparent attempt by Moscow to fully secure a land bridge from Russia to Crimea that was seized by Ukraine in 2014.
Zelenskyi said 100,000 civilians remained in the city, which had a pre-war population of 430,000. Efforts to get much-needed food and other supplies for those trapped have often failed.
Zelenskyy accused Russian forces of seizing a humanitarian convoy. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said the Russians detained 11 bus drivers and four rescue workers along with their vehicles.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks with Pope Francis over the phone from Kyiv, Ukraine. Press Office of the President of Ukraine/AP
In their last update, over a week ago, Mariupol officials said at least 2,300 people had died, but the true number is likely much higher. Airstrikes last week destroyed a theater and an arts school where civilians were taking shelter.
In the besieged northern city of Chernihiv, Russian forces bombed and destroyed a bridge used for aid deliveries and civilian evacuations, regional governor Viacheslav Chaus said.
Kateryna Mytkevich, who came to Poland after fleeing Chernihiv, wiped away tears as she spoke about what she had seen. The city is without gas, electricity or running water, said Mytkevich, 39, and entire neighborhoods have been destroyed.
“I don’t understand why we have such a curse,” she said.
Despite plenty of evidence to the contrary, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted the military operation was proceeding “strictly according” to plans.
Volunteers load sandbags into a vehicle to defend Odessa in southern Ukraine. Petros Giannakouris/AP
The NATO official said an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded. In its latest update on March 2, Russia said nearly 500 soldiers had been killed and nearly 1,600 injured.
Ukraine also claims to have killed six Russian generals. Russia only recognizes a dead general.
The NATO figures represent the alliance’s first public estimate of Russian casualties since the beginning of the war. The US government has largely refused to provide estimates of Russian or Ukrainian casualties, arguing that the available information is of questionable reliability.
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Anna reported from Lemberg, Ukraine. Associated Press writers Robert Burns in Washington, Yuras Karmanau in Lviv, and other AP journalists around the world contributed to this report.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine