The number of deposits in hospitals is increasing – even though new infections are at a relatively stable level. That is the reason.
On Wednesday, forecasting consortium Corona published an adapted preview of the coming days. The experts in charge assume “another slight increase in reported new infections and hospital coverage. In recent weeks there has been a “significant change in the links between reported new infections and hospital coverage”, he says.
In concrete terms, the surface of the normal ward in Vienna increased by 29.6. until 18.7. from 179 to 312 – an increase of 74 percent – while the 7-day incidence remained approximately constant at the level of 1,200 over the same period. Similarly, in Lower Austria, the 7-day incidence increased by 18% over the same period, while the occupancy rate in the normal ward also increased by 74%. In earlier phases of the pandemic, however, increases in the number of reported cases always followed corresponding changes in hospital occupancy with a lag of a few days.
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Changed test behavior as a major issue
Experts point to a problem, because in concrete terms this means: although the 7-day incidence has been at a reasonably stable level for weeks, the number of hospitals is rapidly increasing. Experts blame a change in testing behavior and the variety of tests available – only people who need to show a negative PCR test somewhere or those who already have symptoms can be tested more often.
However, this is difficult for the analysis of the infection process as: The numbers resulting from the change in population testing behavior “are no longer admissible” in the illustration of the spread of the virus. Then the experts make you sit up and pay attention with a statement:
“As reported hospital coverage of behavioral effects is likely skewed to a lesser extent, it can be assumed that the significant increase in the number of hospitals reflects recent epidemiological development of COVID19 better than the number of reported cases of SARS-CoV2 infection” .
Mere corona numbers do not reflect virus events
In concrete terms, this means that developments in hospitals – as mentioned above, an increase of up to 74 percent recorded here – is likely to be more representative than the mere number of new infections. However, as there is no representative alternative model for the calculation, “the current forecast continues to model future hospital occupancy based on the number of reported cases. It must, therefore, be interpreted in terms of the aforementioned uncertainty”.
Thus, experts expect a further increase in the number of cases in the coming days. For the last forecast day, an incidence of 7 days in the range of 920 to 1,500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants is expected. A point estimate of 1200 can be specified as the mean value – which would correspond to about 15,400 cases – which, however, is only significant in connection with the specified fluctuation range.
Navigation account mr Hora20.07.2022, 22:40| Act: 07/20/2022, 22:40