News of the possible deployment of Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus has once again turned the spotlight on a possible one nuclear escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. And with it about what could happen in the event of an attack by Moscow with weapons of mass destruction on the Old Continent.
Estimates speak of at least 90 million victims within a few hours. As mentioned in La Nazione, there is a study by the University of Science and Global Security (SGS) program Princeton which simulated in detail what could happen in a nuclear war. The scenarios considered confirm the very serious picture that emerged from earlier simulations. However, a nuclear attack from the Russian side would also have to be considered political consequences bad for Moscow. And that is true to this day chilling against such actions.
The simulation of Sgs
The researchers simulated a Russian attack from the base Kaliningrad. And thus from the Baltic enclave of the Russian Federation, where Moscow has for years (and in a position far west of Belarus) maintained missile batteries that may contain nuclear devices. In the scenario envisaged by SGS, once the Kremlin gave the green light for the launch of nuclear weapons, many capitals of the Old Continent would be bombed within moments, thanks to Kaliningrad’s proximity to the center of Europe.
Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, but also further south some of the Italian cities could be targets of the first 300 nuclear missiles to be launched from Russian territory. The countries Born At that point, they would react immediately to the attack. Also in the SGS simulation, the Atlantic Alliance would fire at least 180 nuclear weapons at targets in the Russian Federation. This first phase of the war would cost at least 2.5 million dead within three hours.
NATO’s response would give rise to one reply Russian. According to Princeton researchers, Moscow would always try to destroy all major military targets in the world with nuclear weapons Europe. In response, the US would drop 600 nuclear bombs on Russia. In this period of reply and reply, the death toll could rise to 3.4 million dead in 45 minutes.
But at the last stage the tragedy took on the most serious contours. With the mutual annihilation of military targets, all major cities and major economic centers of both Europe and the Russian Federation would be hit indiscriminately. Washington and Moscow would launch multiple nuclear warheads in 45 minutes, killing 85 million people. A frightening picture, a dramatic implementation of all scenarios from “Nuclear winter“Potentially harmful to all of humanity and not just the areas directly affected by the bombing.
Also because it is then necessary to assess the effects of every dropped bomb radiation blown away by the wind to distant regions. The entire planet would then be involved in the catastrophe. This simulation confirms what has been estimated for several decades: once a nuclear attack has begun, it would be very difficult to stop the escalation and catastrophes would ensue that could endanger human existence on Earth.
The Political Damage of a Nuclear Escalation
In days like these, marked by the conflict in Ukraine and red lines perceived as very thin by both Moscow and Washington, such a simulation risks instilling even more fear. However, many political analysts and diplomats believe that the hypothesis of an escalation is a long way off. And this is without the recent movements of Russian bombs on Belarusian territory. The latter is a provocation that, however, does not seem to worry the closest European countries any more than before. Poland And Lithuania For example, they have been living with the presence of nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad for years.
Interview about La Nazione, the military historian Gaston breccia spoke of a “politically finished” Russia in the event of a nuclear attack. “Putin could only be pushed into launching a desperate nuclear attack if his army is cornered. This can happen when Ukraine launches a successful offensive by breaching Russian lines. Then the only chance would be that Moscow would be the weapon of mass destruction. But I believe that the West and NATO do not have to react: a conventional counter-offensive would be sufficient, because then Russia would be politically finished,” says Breccia.
Also because Moscow would lose proximity in the event of a nuclear attack China. In its 12-point peace plan, Beijing said that the use of nuclear weapons should be avoided and condemned at all costs. An insurmountable line, then, which the Kremlin must take into account.
In short, even if Putin chose the nuclear option, it is not certain that we will achieve the scenario simulated by SGS. In Ukraine, the use of so-called “tactical nuclear weapons” (ie, nuclear weapons capable of causing disasters in specific, well-defined locations) would be sufficient to further isolate the Kremlin. Politically, therefore, the use of unconventional weapons is not convenient even for those in Ukraine whose troops may not be able to win.