- Anastasia Uspenskaya
- Russian BBC service
1 hour ago
Credit, Getty Images
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Mysterious explosions occurred in the breakaway republic
Fears are growing that a breakaway region on the outskirts of Moldova could be drawn into the war in neighboring Ukraine.
The breakaway region of Transnistria — or Transnistria, named after the Dniester River — broke away from Moldova after a short war in 1992 and is ruled by proRussian separatists.
A series of mysterious explosions that occurred over a 48hour period escalated tensions in the region.
According to reports, the attacks were directed against the following targets:
· Headquarters of the State Security Service in Tiraspol, the capital of the region;
· military unit in Parcani, a village on the outskirts of Tiraspol;
· Old Sovietera radio towers that used to broadcast Russian news.
Credit, Reuters/Ministry of Interior of Transnistria
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Destroyed radio towers in Grigoriopol, Transnistria, in April 2022
The attacks left no casualties, but authorities in the Moldovan capital Chisinau described the blasts as a deliberate provocation to draw the region into the conflict.
But who carried out the attacks and why?
The BBC has developed four possible scenarios for how tensions in Transnistria could escalate, depending on who is behind the blasts and their motivations.
1. Russia is a strange coincidence
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has blamed the Russian security services for the latest blasts, saying Moscow is trying to destabilize the region and draw other countries into a war with Ukraine.
The alleged action in Transnistria coincided with a shift in Russia’s war strategy, which now appears to be focused on seizing control of eastern and southern Ukraine.
Russian Major General Rustam Minnekayev, acting commander of the Central Military District, said on April 22 that taking full control of southern Ukraine would provide “another gateway for Transnistria.”
Credit, Reuters
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Russia’s intention to build a corridor to Transnistria through southern Ukraine has long been debated in some circles.
He claimed, without citing any evidence, that there had been “cases of oppression of the Russianspeaking population” in the breakaway region.
This argument reflects one of Moscow’s original reasons for justifying the war in Ukraine, but it is unclear whether this comment was sanctioned by the Kremlin. Moldova is a former Soviet republic.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he could not comment on issues related to the military campaign. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not refute General Minnekayev’s statements.
The United States has previously warned that Russian forces could launch “false flag” operations to create an excuse to invade other nations’ territory.
2. Moldova and attempt to curb Russian influence
Transnistria is governed by a proRussian government, which declared itself independent after a referendum in September 2006.
The vote is not recognized by Moldova and much of the international community. The breakaway region is economically, politically and militarily supported by Russia.
Credit, AFP
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Flags of Russia and Transnistria placed side by side in Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria
Many Russian speakers in Moldovan society believe that the government in Chisinau would be able to stage a fake attack to increase the terrorist threat and ban May 9 celebrations.
On this day, Russia and some former Soviet countries commemorate the anniversary of Nazi Germany’s surrender at the end of World War II.
In Transnistria, the terrorist threat level has already been raised to red and a Victory Day parade scheduled for May 9 has been cancelled.
ProEU Moldovan President Maia Sandu has signed a law banning the use of the ribbon of Saint George, a Russian military symbol, and the display of the letters “Z” and “V” in connection with it. of Russian military aggression” against Ukraine.
Credit, AFP
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Strongly proWestern President Maia Sandu is photographed after a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken March 6, 2022 in Chisinay
Heavy fines are provided to punish those who break the law.
Moldova’s Russianspeaking population says the government’s real goals are to erase their history and cultural heritage.
3. ProRussian Separatists and the War
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, many questions have been raised about the proRussian enclave in Moldova.
After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, many proMoscow Transnistrians began to expect Russia to make a similar move in their region.
About 1,500 Russian troops are stationed on the territory of the selfproclaimed republic, and experts say they can allow Russian tanks free passage into Moldova.
Credit, Getty Images
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Ukrainian guards patrol the MoldovaTransnistria border following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014
Meanwhile, the Russian embassy in Chisinau has insisted cases of discrimination against Russian speakers have become more common in the country.
In response, the Moldovan government demanded an apology from Russia, saying the allegations were unfounded.
Under this scenario, proRussian separatists would be ready to join the war in Ukraine on behalf of the Kremlin, although analysts in Moldova doubt that residents of the region are willing to risk their lives.
4. Ukraine and the Soviet Arms Depot
Transnistrian officials and Russian analysts blamed Ukraine for the attack.
The village of Kolbasna near the Ukrainian border is home to the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe. Some of the weapons are compatible with Sovietera weapons used by Ukrainian forces in the fight against Moscow.
One interpretation of the events suggests that given the lack of weapons, Ukraine wants to take possession of this camp.
Credit, AFP
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Separatist fighters with weapons in 1992. Some weapons stored in Kolbasna village are compatible with those from the Soviet era
A Transnistrian government official said three unidentified intruders from Ukraine attacked the security headquarters with a grenade launcher.
This claim has not been verified and some military experts have criticized the claim. They say Ukraine needs the latest antitank and antiaircraft systems, which only the West can deliver and are not compatible with old Soviet weapons.
They also point out that any explosion in Transnistria on Ukraine’s western border would prevent Ukrainian forces from fighting the Russians to the east.
However, Russian analysts argue that another war front would further strain the capabilities of the Russian armed forces. Alternatively, Russia could be forced to ignore the problem and show weakness.
And now?
After the incidents, Moldovan President Maia Sandu held an emergency meeting and ordered increased patrols on the MoldovaTransnistria border.
Security has also been strengthened at the headquarters of state institutions and at key infrastructure points.
The European Union expressed extreme concern about a possible spiral of tension between Chisinau and Tiraspol. The EU called on the parties to keep calm and not accept provocations.
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