How high is the risk of a 3rd World War with an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine? Estao

More of two months according to Russia penetrate the Ukraine on February 24th, Russian officials warn of risks of a global escalation of the conflict after the West increased arms sales to Ukraine. . The effects are already being felt in the global economy and Geopolitics has already changedbut the involvement of other powers, the risk of nuclear war, and a possible annexation of Ukrainian territories to Russia are hypotheses still in play.

The war has already claimed the lives of thousands of civilians and soldiers, in addition to a refugee flow that now exceeds 5 million, the largest in history. Sanctions against individuals and the Russian economy are already having an impact Food and fuel supplies around the world and some countries are facing increasing political instability. But the biggest change so far concerns world security.

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The West is preparing for a long war and beyond the borders of Ukraine

“We are dealing with a war between states in Europe,” says Zach Paikin, researcher in European diplomacy at the Center for European Policy Research (CEPS). “We already had others, like Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, but they were two small states. Here we are talking about a war between states involving the largest state in Europe, with nuclear capabilities, it is very dangerous. It poses significant security risks to the region, not only in terms of refugees or the involvement of external powers, but also in terms of the possibility of this conflict escalating.”

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The world has not seen such a fullscale conflict involving a world power since the end of World War II. Other countries have not sent soldiers directly into this conflict, but have kept their forces in Eastern Europe and on alert have already sent billions in arms and other military aid to Ukraine.

Conflicts can also escalate indirectly. Also in February, Putin threatened “serious consequences” if Finland and Sweden joined NATO. Although Stockholm and Helsinki are currently ruling out the possibility of a rush bid to join the Atlantic Alliance, the two countries have never been so close to making the move, analysts say. “Fear of countries breaking norms to invade other countries appears to drive longterm behavior change,” says political scientist Carla Martinez Macain of Kansas State University, who studies foreign policy with a focus on military policy and international conflict. “The fact that Sweden and Finland are looking to join NATO in the future is an indicator that they may also be concerned about the potential for future Russian incursions into their territories.”

Ukrainian troops fire rockets during Russian attacks in Kharkiv April 20. Photo: Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters

When it threatens to elevate the conflict to a global level, Russia is concentrating on delivering arms. Last Monday, the 25th, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrovsaid that both the possibility of a new conflict on a global scale, as well as nuclear war, should not be underestimated..

“Fears that Russia could interpret military aid as direct involvement in the conflict are well founded and persist,” says Cesar Jaramillo, executive director of the Canadian institute Project Plowshares, which deals with war prevention and armed violence.

“President Putin has already hardened his speech regarding the provision of military aid to Ukraine and can still draw a red line around this practice and point it out to justify retaliatory measures, which in turn could escalate the conflict.”

Last Wednesday, the 27th, the Russian President Wladimir Putin that promised Russia will respond with a “lightning” attack to any strategic interference in the Ukraine war. “We have all the weapons that are necessary for this. Weapons no one can brag about anymore. And let’s not brag. But we will use them when necessary. And I want everyone to know that.”

“What is at stake is a confrontation between two countries, the US and Russia, which together possess 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons,” William Wohlforth, a professor of international politics at Dartmouth, said in a March 5 interview with Vox . “Even if Russia appears economically insignificant, a heated dispute between these two countries, which continues to escalate, would create the risk of a serious escalation and threaten people everywhere.”

But for the teacher, even with the risk of escalation, We are still nowhere near a third world war. “I think we were much closer during the Cold War. I still think a nuclear escalation in this particular crisis is unlikely, despite Putin’s decision to raise the alert level of his nuclear forces.”

“I think he just wants to remind people that his country is a nuclear power and is practically on par with the US in terms of weapon count. But we have to be very careful when it comes to crossing certain red lines.”

When war broke out in February, analysts and officials believed in a quick Russian takeover of Kiev. Thanks to strong resistance from Ukraine, the prediction did not come true. Successive Russian setbacks in the north have prompted the country to reconsider its strategy and focus its advances south and east.

“The invasion is more serious than many expected. One possible scenario was that Russian troops were stopping in the breakaway regions of Russia Donetsk and luhanskbut that didn’t happen,” says Martinez.

Now, the West is preparing for a long war and fears it will go beyond Ukraine’s borders, spreading to neighboring countries, cyberspace and NATO countries suddenly faced with a Russian gas lockdown. Explosions have already rocked a disputed area in Moldova, a natural next target for the Russians, and gas depots and even a missile factory in Russia have mysteriously caught fire or been directly attacked by Ukrainian forces.

According to a report by Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, early in the war the Kremlin believed that Ukrainian forces would be quickly destroyed and Moscow would have enough control over the country to announce victory on Russia’s Victory Day on May 9.

However, more moderate progress is now being made in the east. “Russia is now preparing diplomatically, militarily and economically for a protracted conflict,” the report said.

The West itself has used this possibility of a protracted war to weaken Russia in the long term. “We want Russia to be weakened to the point where it can no longer do what it did when it invaded Ukraine,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III said.

Ultimately, the risk of further escalation of the conflict seems to depend on how willing Putin is to react to defeats in Ukraine. “For Russia, this is a war that must be won,” says Paikin. “Russia must win. Failure to persuade Ukraine to adopt a neutral stance would be a disaster for Moscow and a particular disaster for Putin. In recent years it has become increasingly clear that the survival of the Russian state is linked to the survival of Putin. The future of his presidency and the security of the Russian state are at stake.”

In the long term, Martinez Macchain believes that the fact that Russia violated an international norm against aggression and international norms of territorial integrity could make it more likely that those norms will be violated again in the future, especially if Russia succeeds in breaking some of them to reach your goals.

“We are talking about the shadow of an extremely dangerous and unpredictable great power war hanging over the world unless an agreement is reached that does not leave the two sides completely and utterly alienated, swords held over one another’s heads,” he agrees. William Wohlforth./With NYT