By the end of the weekend, we’ll know a lot about the Kansas City Chiefs’ roster build for the next three years. And we’ll also know which AP staffer had the best (informed) guesses about the team’s 12 draft picks.
John Dixon (@arrow headphones)
Forecast: Brett Veach wants to trade but can’t.
As the saying goes, it takes two to tango. And unfortunately the Chiefs GM can’t find a dance partner. So he does the next best thing: When he’s on the clock, he doubles: He takes his remaining healthy EDGE favorite with the 29th pick and Michigan EDGE David Ojabo with 30. The healthy dude is then scheduled to play Frank Clark in 2022, while Ojabo 2023 will take Clark’s place.
claw graff (@CoachGraff34)
Forecast: Chiefs trade for a wide receiver and take a future edge-rushing star at 30
The Chiefs haven’t made a drastic trade-up since Patrick Mahomes in 2017. This time, the front office goes to get a first class pass catcher for their quarterback. Whether it’s Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave, GM Brett Veach will aggressively try to bring out his next star.
Then, at 30, they look to the future by picking an elite contender with an unfortunate injury: Michigan EDGE David Ojabo. A timeline for his healthy return is unclear — but how often will the Chiefs have the opportunity to snag two top-15 talents in the same class?
Christian Gummiinger (@kguminger)
Forecast: Chiefs trade up to 21 to get an EDGE
It might not be the sexiest pick, but the Chiefs will move up to No. 21 to select George Karlaftis – who can play Frank Clark on Day 1. You have to sacrifice pick 29 and some picks from day 2 to make it happen, but it’s done to lock that spot.
Then they come back and make everyone happy and end the night by picking Georgia receiver George Pickens. Get ready for the next five years of Mahomes/Pickens highlights!
Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)
Forecast: The Chiefs pass the wide receiver to add defensive high-ceilinged starters.
We don’t often see the Chiefs using first-round picks, but leveraging the asset’s value in return has always resulted in an instant starter — whether it’s trading for Frank Clark or Orlando Brown Jr., or drafting Running back Clyde Edwards. Helaire.
I don’t think the range of wide receivers available to the Chiefs at the end of the first round will be ready to make the same immediate impact as the defensive ends and cornerbacks they might get. And those are two positions where the team really needs starters.
That’s why I believe the Chiefs will pick Michigan defenseman Daxton Hill — and then improve their edge pass rush by picking Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie.
Rocky Magana (@RockyMagana)
Forecast: Chiefs trade pick 30 as quarterback-hungry team skips Lions to get their man
While I think Veach and his team will be active on the phone all night, I don’t think the board will fall in their favor — where they’d be comfortable jumping up to get a guy. Instead, I think a handful of players that they have good marks for in the second round will be there when they are on the clock.
In my opinion, the Chiefs picked 29, the best player among the edge rushers, cornerbacks and wide receivers available at the time. Look for guys like Boye Mafe from Minnesota or George Pickens from Georgia. #PickensToKC.
But with Pick 30, I think there will be a team like the Seattle Seahawks or the Houston Texans looking to step up to get their developmental QB of choice — while also gaining a much-needed fifth year of control. The Chiefs then have additional mid-round picks available.
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
Forecast: Brett Veach shocks Chiefs Kingdom by actually picking at 29 and 30.
It seems like we’ve been waiting all offseason for the real Brett Veach to show up – the one who aggressively targets his boys at all costs. So far, that version of the Chiefs’ GM hasn’t surfaced – and I think the patient approach continues this weekend. The Chiefs will drop the board like Thursday night. At the end of the first round, the Chiefs will pair the selection of an overwhelming remaining EDGE player with a splash at wide receiver: George Pickens or Christian Watson.
Stefan Serda (@StephenSerda)
Forecast: Chiefs stay at 29 and 30.
There is an urgent need for the Chiefs to make a big move Thursday night by stepping up. But the way they’ve approached this off-season, I can’t believe they’re going to strike a deal. I find them far more likely to stay at 29 and 30 to pick Penn State edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie — and then pick Georgia wide receiver George Pickens in a dream scenario. With 12 picks total, there’s a strong possibility that they’ll move the picks, but I think the move will come in Rounds 2-4 — though the Houston Texans have already admitted they mean business if they go in Round 1 for want to make a splash withdrawal from their 13th choice. The Chiefs need to add playmakers in this draft — and their best bet is to be smart with their draft assets.
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
Forecast: The Chiefs trade for an EDGE and pick up a receiver at 30.
This scenario is based on something unexpected happening.
Everyone thinks that the top-tier EDGE rushers make the top 10 picks. One of them would have to slip in order for them to be within range of the Chief’s handy trade-up opportunities. There are four types that fit into this category. Two of them will likely go to the lead in the draft after Jacksonville (Trayvon Walker) and Detroit (Aidan Hutchinson). That leaves Kayvon Thibodeaux and Jermaine Johnson II as opportunities for a Chiefs trade-up at pick 12 or 13.
The Chiefs would have to trade something like Pick 29 + Pick 50 + Pick 136 to get Minnesota’s or Houston’s pick. For the sake of this prediction I say it’s Thibodeaux as some teams will drop him due to recruitment issues.
Then at Pick 30, the Chiefs add a receiver with a tempting advantage: Christian Watson. Some think he might go later – but his elite sport profile says he won’t make it to pick 62, so Brett Veach pulls the trigger. The same could be said of George Pickens, who would be a good pick here too if they choose him over Watson. Launching this design with elite potential in two major demand locations will position Kansas City for the future.
Bryan Stewart (@BryanStewart_)
Forecast: The Chiefs trade to WR Chris Olave and pick DE Drake Jackson on pick 30.
The NFL is now a full blown offensive league. The AFC in particular is packed with great quarterbacks that the Chiefs need to be able to beat in shootouts. To solidify their offense and round out what will be a better overall weapon choice for quarterback Patrick Mahomes in 2022, Brett Veach is stepping up and getting a wide receiver — either Ohio State’s Chris Olave or Alabama’s Jameson Williams – as the No. 1 long-term receiver. At the end of the night, they snag a strong defensive opening end by beating either Minnesota’s Boye Mafe, Penn State’s Arnold Ebiketie, or Southern California’s Drake Jackson.
Peter Sweeney (@pgsween)
Forecast: The Chiefs trade for a wide receiver in Round 1 but retain the #30 pick and exit Day 1 with a receiver and either a defensive back or a pass rusher.
The mock draft season (and really the draft speculation season overall) isn’t my favorite as mock drafts can usually be ripped within an hour of the draft starting. Then the next team reacts, and then another reacts – and then another. You understand it.
With the Chiefs picking 29 and 30, I don’t think they have a name they like at wide receiver. My guess would be that they have two or three in a deep crop, and when one of those names falls on the magic pickaxe — a spot where you can still keep the second first-round pick — the Chiefs pull the trigger and go for the next big gun for Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Then they’re probably using Pick 30 to fill another need – that might just be a cornerback.