Status: 04/28/2022 10:08
It’s been a topic on every news program in Sweden and Finland for days now: NATO membership – yes or no? And if so, when and how will this happen? The rumor mill is spinning.
By Sofie Donges, ARD Studio Stockholm
Not much is known about possible Swedish and Finnish membership of NATO – neither about possible decisions already taken by governments nor about an exact timeline, according to Swedish journalist Mats Knutson of SVT: “There is a lot of secrecy surrounding the NATO process. There are a lot of meetings taking place, which are not exactly known, so there are a lot of leaks and only indirect information.”
The rumor mill is stirring
Rumor is swirling: a Swedish and a Finnish newspaper are certain that both countries will announce a joint decision – in the week starting May 16.
Two things speak in favor of this: Sweden announced that it would publish a security policy report on May 13 listing the pros and cons of NATO membership. The Swedes originally wanted to have time until the end of May for this review.
The second indicator is a state visit by Finnish President Sauli Niinistö to Stockholm from 17 May. This would be the perfect stage for big news affecting both countries.
Finnish Foreign Minister: no concrete timetable
However, if you ask Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, there is still no concrete timetable. The processes would have to be completed first in both countries.
Politicians in Finland and Sweden are slamming on the brakes and keeping a low profile. The Finnish Social Democrats, the party of Prime Minister Sanna Marin, want to announce their decision on May 14.
Observer: The matter is clear
To some observers, however, the matter is clear, just not yet communicated. Finland will join and Sweden will likely join, Robert Dalsjö of the Swedish Military Research Agency is also sure of that. “In Sweden, the process was a little more dizzying and slower. Sweden was not as mentally prepared as Finland. But it is now obvious that the ruling Social Democrat leadership opted for that and is now trying to get the whole party on board. “
People in Sweden not so convinced
And the Swedes themselves are still not as convinced as the Finns. Not long ago in Sweden, just over half of the population said in a survey: Yes, we want membership.
In Finland, it was over 60 percent a few weeks ago. There is fear of Russia in both countries, polls show that too. The Swedes and Finns are also concerned about the period from a possible decision in favor of NATO to accession.
There must be security guarantees
Security experts expect Russian provocations, such as cyber attacks, for example. Allegedly, there are already security guarantees for both countries, according to SVT journalist Knutson. “It is clear that if Sweden and Finland want to become members, I would be very surprised if the US had not guaranteed military protection. For the US it is about credibility, also for NATO, which has to protect two countries in this situation. uncertain situation.”
There will soon be security on at least one issue: NATO membership – yes or no? It should be ready by mid-May.
Lots of rumors about Sweden, Finland and NATO
Sofie Donges, ARD Stockholm, 27 April 2022 8:22 am