How important are tanks given the ground fighting in the spring?
“Used tactically correctly, they are the basis for a possible victory in an orographic situation like the one in Ukraine, which offers large plains and spaces for the maneuvers of armored forces. But when deployed as the Russians deployed in the first phase of the conflict, without the modernization of new technologies and with unskilled human resources, they only produce appalling losses in assets and people.”
General Vincenzo Camporini, head of the Security and Defense Department, former Chief of Defense Staff, now Scientific Advisor to the IAI, explains that the Leopards and not the American Abrams will make the difference in the coming months, “the latter need logistical and logistical support particularly complex Training, it will take time to equip Ukrainians with it». A few weeks, however, for the German-made Leopards, which “in the hands of Kiev would be a very different thing from using tanks previously made by the Russians, because the Ukrainians have learned to conduct modern warfare, and the Leopard 2 can become the element that upsets the balance of power on the field, regardless of the number of soldiers».
Are the Ukrainians right when they ask for hundreds instead of ten or twenty?
Of course, a few dozen are not enough. But there is the problem of the heterogeneity of potentially available material, between English challengers, German leopards and French leclercs. Tanks are not like cars: they are fundamentally different from each other, training takes time and there is no interoperability, different teams are needed depending on the model».
Are Russian tanks inferior?
“The ones that are online right now, yes. But the Russians also have T-14 Armatas, although we don’t know exactly how many there are or how efficient they are. At the last military parade in Moscow, three marched, the fourth did not go. These are vehicles of the very latest generation, but in terms of numbers and efficiency that need to be checked. The first tests are not exciting».
How important is intelligence?
“Intelligence is everything. If the Ukrainians managed to find out that 600 Russian soldiers were in Makiivka and met them, it is thanks to intelligence information. It’s not enough to have infiltrators and collaborators; it needs electronic intelligence and communication. The West’s advantage here is stratospheric. If we look at traces of electronic radar reconnaissance planes in Ukraine in any app, I would be surprised if this collection of information does not benefit Ukrainians. Today, in this way, it is possible not only to identify the vehicle on the ground in front of you, but also its position to the meter and based on emissions, whether it is talking on the radio or something else…».
Are the Russians preparing a major offensive in the spring?
«The increase in personnel in the Russian army is objective. Russia has four times the demographic potential of Ukraine. However, it remains to be seen whether military personnel are adequately equipped and trained, and apparently are not. In Putin’s favour, the “effort” to which he subjects the Ukrainian people is overcome thanks to a national spirit of tremendous importance, which is also the paradoxical political result that Putin has “achieved”. So far, Kyiv has overcome the spatial difficulties thanks to Western help. What must go on. The problem for us is more political and concerns the differences between the allies, which I believe we will overcome. In Chechnya we saw how a Russian army was led with narrow discipline, these mistakes were not overcome. Russia has great numerical potential, but poor performance».
How do you assess German tank indecision?
“We had to reckon with that. What is surprising, however, is that Scholz’s Germany did not construct a narrative that could preventively support the positions he gradually assumed. Just look at what’s happening with former Chancellor Schröder: an incredible defense of a German political world that can’t seem to distance itself decisively from a character I can’t define as anything other than dirty.”
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