Ukraine is in celebration mood after finally convincing Western leaders to part with dozens of sophisticated tanks they believe will deal a major blow to Vladimir Putin’s invasion and help win the war.
But their dreams will soon become reality, because the months of waiting for the procurement, refurbishment and delivery of the military vehicles begin alongside an intensive training program.
The process could even leave Ukraine stranded without the high-tech weaponry until Moscow orders its much-anticipated three-pronged spring offensive, which could prove a pivotal moment in the conflict.
The US doesn’t even have a ready stock of M1 Abrams tanks for delivery yet and needs to procure part of its fleet, while German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said its Leopard 2 tanks won’t be ready until late March or early April.
A Leopard 2 battle tank throws smoke grenades during exercises in Germany. A fleet of tanks will soon be sent to Ukraine
By then, Russia is expected to have launched a full-scale attack, ordering forces south of Belarus, north of Crimea and east of the Donbas to encircle and strangle Kyiv forces.
Putin earlier today issued an angry response to the deal, firing dozens of rockets at Ukraine, which was forced to issue a nationwide airstrike alert.
The retaliation signals that the war will increase based on NATO measures and the Kremlin will not wait for the tanks to arrive.
The tanks will not reach their maximum effect until spring at the earliest, which means that the trembling of the west may have cost Ukraine a decisive blow against Moscow.
George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War told Newsweek: “The Ukrainians have signaled their intention to conduct offensive operations over the winter, but the lack of Western security support has hampered their ability to do so.”
Similarly, the HIMARS weapons system came after a series of Russian offensives and delayed the liberation of Kherson.
Mr Barros added: “It is the reluctance in some Western capitals to deploy the necessary systems immediately, not the deployment of the weapons themselves, that is prolonging this war.”
The fact that the German Leopard 2, US M1 Abrams and British Challenger 2 tanks will each require different levels of training and maintenance and will arrive sporadically over the coming months will only complicate matters.
Britain’s armored vehicles are preparing to move to Estonia after being pledged to Kyiv’s armed forces
A US Army M1 Abrams tank fires during NATO exercises in Latvia
Initially, Ukraine will likely focus on restocking with a fleet of Leopard or Leopard 2 tanks to avoid the difficulty of operating multiple vehicles together that are not designed for them.
The training of the Ukrainian troops on German Marder infantry fighting vehicles will begin in the next few days, Pistorius said today, “and a little later for the Ukrainian soldiers who are being trained on the Leopard”.
It will force Kiev’s military to completely rethink its current strategy and quickly adapt to the new technology, having relied on Soviet-era T-72 tanks throughout the war.
They will also have to increase their maintenance and production facilities to accommodate the new vehicles, the most advanced in the world.
Brad Martin, director of the RAND Institute for Supply Chain Security, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Unfortunately, this means that each of these functions will need their own supply chains because they are different, their parts are different, the maintenance requirements are different.
“I don’t know it’s such a big challenge that it can’t be tackled, but other things being equal, it would be better to have common systems, but they work with what they have.
“The United States has a number of Abrams tanks and some of them would need to be refurbished to be exportable…it’s certainly true that they don’t stand there operational, work needs to be done to get any of them operational.
“A lot of this is pretty complicated, sophisticated stuff, and it takes time to learn how to use it. Training will be a very big problem.
“Supply chains and the procurement of spare parts take time and both together become a challenge.”
In Washington, senior officials had privately expressed dismay at Germany’s attempts to tie the Abrams tanks to the Leopards’ supply.
A senior administration official told reporters that bosses didn’t think the Abrams tanks were good for Ukraine because they were difficult to operate and maintain.
Ukrainian soldiers ride a Soviet-era T-72 tank, widely used in the ongoing conflict, in the Donetsk region, January 20
But Germany doesn’t want to do it alone, the official said, prompting Americans to wonder if there was a deeper reason in Berlin that had to do with the symbolism of German tanks rolling in Eastern Europe for a country that still does marked by the beginning of the Second World War.
At the same time, US officials tried to counter Ukraine’s clamor for tanks while reassuring Ukrainians that there are long-term limits to aid.
Ukraine’s military tactics will also have to adapt to the new toy.
Tanks must get close enough to blast holes through enemy lines, which means infantry must get within range of Russian positions.
Engineers are needed to help tanks cross rivers, and artillery must cover the flanks to repel a possible counterattack, along with air defenses protecting vehicles from above.
Tanks also have to be transported to the front on a low-loader, which also requires its own protection.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is seen a day after final approval was given to supply tanks to Ukraine
In addition, it remains to be seen whether the supply is even large enough to meet Ukraine’s needs.
So far, Western countries have “not made clear statements” about how many tanks will be supplied, an adviser to the country’s defense minister said.
Yuriy Sak told BBC Radio 4 Today: “We need 300 to 400 tanks for this to turn around.
“This coalition of tanks made up of different countries, we don’t have clear indications of how many tanks each country will provide. We have informed our partners that this is the number we need.
“If you want the rocket terror to stop, you must obtain the weapons that will allow us to defeat the enemy on the battlefield.
“The sooner we defeat Russia on the battlefield with Western weapons, the sooner we can stop this missile terror and restore peace.”
So far, the number of tanks on offer is in the tens rather than the hundreds, although deliveries could continue.
Ukrainian officials are now requesting long-range missiles and aircraft, but it’s likely they’ll face a similar wait to their previous requests for military assistance.
Presidential adviser Mikhailo Podolyak told The Daily Telegraph: “Right now we are seeing a sharp change in mood among the political elites of European countries… we will not, I am sure, reach an agreement on long-range missiles.”
Mr Zelensky said: “Overall, I am grateful to the world for supporting Ukraine. But if we speak openly and honestly with you, the number of tanks and the delivery time are of vital and crucial importance compared to the decision made.
“We have approved weapon cases to be sent to us, but we still haven’t received them.
“Sometimes the delivery of the weapons takes months, you understand?”