The Russian war on the plains of Ukraine is making waves in the Pacific. Chinese residents are worried. You wonder. Will the Ukrainian tragedy be enough to dissuade Xi Jinping from a military adventure in Taiwan? In the face of uncertainty, the countries of the Indo-Pacific are reacting like the Europeans towards Russia: they are rearming and moving closer to the USA.
Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine, the country whose borders he was supposed to secure, has strengthened the transatlantic bond. NATO is growing. The people of Putin’s Russia are demanding and getting more America – not less. Germans and French inflate their military budgets significantly. Defense spending is increasing across Europe. Moscow is mobilizing the Old Continent like never before since the end of the Cold War.
The same response and mobilization in a part of the Western Pacific, far, far removed from the European theater, but where Russia’s declared “friend” China is stepping up its military posturing. Russian aggression against Ukraine has healed the transatlantic bond; Beijing’s conduct in the China Sea strengthens strategic ties between the United States and Southeast Asia.
The shepherd’s reply to the shepherdess
Beijing has the largest navy in the world. China is on course to become a military power at the height of its economy. Wall Street Journal question: “The Chinese army is catching up with the United States, but does it know how to fight?” Anyway, she’s showing her strength, she’s flexing her muscles in the western Pacific. At the expense of many of its neighbors in Southeast Asia, China maintains its sovereignty over a good chunk of that sea area – which it wants to oust the United States from. It increases military pressure on Taiwan, as demonstrated by the August 2022 maneuvers. But Indonesians, Japanese, Malaysians, Filipinos and Vietnamese are also complaining about renewed aggression around islands, islets and disputed fishing areas. The signing of a security pact between the Solomon Islands and Beijing in April 2022 would herald the establishment of a Chinese base in the archipelago – which would be just the counterpart to those Washington has in the region…
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The shepherd’s answer to the shepherdess, we brace ourselves against the rising military giant and its desire to use force, if necessary, to assert itself in its sphere of influence. Alliances formed with the United States are being strengthened. Above all, they are urged to maintain their strategic presence in the Pacific – even as Southeast Asia knows its economic future is linked to China’s.
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