A man walks past campaign posters in Tunis on the eve of the first round of parliamentary elections, December 17, 2022. ZOUBEIR SOUISSI / Portal
Nearly 8 million Tunisians are invited to vote on Sunday (29 January) to elect a new parliament with powers curtailed by President Kaïs Saïed amid political dissatisfaction and mounting economic difficulties. A total of 262 candidates (for 131 of the 161 seats) are running in the second round of general elections, one of the final stages in establishing an ultra-presidential system, Mr Saïed’s goal since his coup in the summer of 2021.
Also Read: Tunisians Defeat President Saïed by Refusing to Vote
On July 25, 2021, the president, believing the country ungovernable, sacked his prime minister and froze the Parliamentary Assembly, which was dissolved in spring 2022 ahead of a constitutional reform in summer 2022 that severely curtailed parliamentary prerogatives.
The latter, consisting of the Assembly of Deputies elected on Sunday and a National Council of Regions (still to be set up), “does not express confidence in the government and can only blame it with a two-thirds majority in the two chambers,” reminds the Agence France-Presse of the lawyer and Political scientist Hamadi Redissi. Furthermore, the President cannot even be charged with serious misconduct.
“Given the popular disinterest” in politics “this parliament will have little legitimacy, the all-powerful President thanks to the 2022 Constitution will be able to dominate it at will,” estimates Columbia Global Centers expert Youssef Cherif. In the first ballot, on December 17, 2022, only 11.22% of voters had moved. That’s the strongest abstention since the 2011 revolution that toppled dictator Ben Ali and ushered in democracy.
As in the first round, the opposition, marginalized by a voting system that prohibits candidates from showing their political affiliations, called for a boycott of the vote in the name of their opposition to Mr Saïed’s “coup d’état”.
Also read: In Tunisia, twelve years after the revolution, disaffected young people are turning their backs on voting
scarcity and decline in purchasing power
The election campaign seems bland, with few election signs and mostly unknown candidates. In order to mobilize public opinion, particularly young people, who overwhelmingly voted for Mr Saïed, then a novice in politics, in 2019, the Elections Authority organized televised debates during prime time. But on the street, the attention is elsewhere. The purchasing power of the population falls when inflation exceeds 10% and there are sporadic shortages of products such as milk, oil or semolina. “The country is on the brink of collapse,” Mr Redissi said.
Despite “general discontent” fueled by traffic or education strikes, the demonstrations have not mobilized the masses and “the status quo can remain as long as the average Tunisian does not see a credible alternative to President Saïed,” fears Youssef Cherif.
The opposition, which called for the president to step down after the first-round rejection, remains split into three irreconcilable blocs: the National Salvation Front, united around the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party, Mr Saïed’s pet peeve; Abir Moussi’s Free Destourian Party (PDL), which claims the legacy of former President Ben Ali; and left parties.
Another impasse: The highly indebted country’s crucial negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over a loan of almost $2 billion (1.8 billion euros) have been stuck for months. Various factors seem to be delaying the conclusion of an agreement: first, according to Mr Cherif, “the role of the United States”, heavyweight of the IMF, concerned about an autocratic drift in Tunisia, “fallen star if it is “a model of democracy”. And President Saïed “seems reluctant to accept the IMF’s dictates” for painful reforms, such as lifting subsidies on basic products, Mr Cherif deciphers.
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There is “a glaring discrepancy between the president’s anachronistic sovereignist declarations against international organizations and the program that the government has proposed to the IMF,” says Redissi. A glimmer of hope for this expert: an “initiative to save the country” by the powerful trade union center Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT) with the League for Human Rights, the Bar Association and the NGO Forum Tunisia for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES).
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At the first meeting of this new “quartet” of national dialogue on Friday, UGTT President Noureddine Taboubi promised “a coherent, rational and independent plan” to try to solve the “economic, social and political problems”.
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