NATO Embassy after Announcing Tanks to be Shipped to Ukraine 1:31
(CNN) — The West’s decision to finally send tanks to Ukraine has caused some to ask the uncomfortable question: Does this mean NATO is now in direct conflict with Russia?
This narrative, heavily promoted by the Kremlin, no doubt helps Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies deflect attention from the fact that Russia was the one who launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine and illegally occupied parts of a sovereign state.
Also, perhaps more to Putin’s convenience, it offers NATO allies a period of reflection before deciding exactly how much military aid to give to Ukraine.
First things first, the consensus among experts is that no NATO member is anywhere near being at war with Russia by any internationally accepted legal definition. Therefore, the idea that the alliance is at war with Russia is not true.
“A war would require attacks by uniformed US or NATO forces operating from NATO territory against Russian forces, Russian territory or the Russian people,” explains William Alberque of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
British tanks prepare to enter the Tapa army camp in Estonia on January 19, 2023.
“Any fight by Ukraine with any conventional weapons against any Russian force is not a US/NATO war in Ukraine, no matter how much Russia wants to claim it,” he added.
Alberque refers to the Charter of the United Nations, which states that nothing shall “impair the inherent right to individual or collective legitimate defence, when an armed attack on a member of the United Nations occurs, until the Security Council has taken the necessary measures to end it.” to maintain international peace and security”.
Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and has vetoed it to avoid condemnation of its actions in Ukraine.
US-owned M1A2 Abrams tanks can be seen in Grafenwoehr, Germany.
The Kremlin has certainly tried to exploit certain gray areas inherent in all modern warfare to falsely claim that NATO is the main aggressor in the Ukraine conflict.
These gray areas could include the use of Western intelligence agencies to conduct attacks on Russian targets.
They could also include the US launching the war on terror after the September 11, 2001 attacks, invoking Article 5 of NATO, under which the US was attacked by terrorists rather than a nation state.
Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev has claimed that the West is trying to “destroy” Russia. Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s ambassador to the United States, said the US government is pressuring Ukraine to “carry out terrorist attacks in Russia.”
Of course, whatever little value these dubious claims may have, they pale in comparison to the documented brutality and illegal actions of Russian forces in Ukraine since Putin ordered the invasion.
But the fact that they exist and are taken seriously by analysts and commentators outside Russia, including in Washington, plays in the Kremlin’s favor in more ways than one.
John Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, explains that promoting the idea that this is a NATO-Russia war helps explain to Putin’s internal audience why the invasion did not succeed as quickly as Russia had hoped.
“Because the Russian military was a major failure in Ukraine, it makes sense to declare this as a war with NATO rather than against Ukraine. It also helps justify any moves Putin may take next, and Russia has been keen to toy with the idea that this could mean a nuclear move,” Herbst told CNN.
Herbst believes that Russia’s information war against the West has been more successful than its military campaign, as it has caused credible and rational people in Washington to dissuade further military support to Ukraine by exaggerating the idea that Putin would use nuclear weapons, which to do so would also be disastrous for Russia.
“I can’t tell you how many pundits have said that we really can’t supply certain weapons to Ukraine because Putin is going to use his nuclear arsenal. What we’ve seen over the last six months is Russian pundits turning to their Western counterparts to say that Putin really could pull it off. Unfortunately, Washington and especially Berlin have been deterred by this threat many times,” he says.
The reason Putin watchers believe there is little chance of Russia escalating to the point of NATO responding with violence is because Moscow knows it might not survive the confrontation.
Two Leopard 2 A7V main battle tanks before an event on September 15, 2021 in Bad Frankenhausen, Germany.
“One of the few goals that the Russian and American leaders share at the moment is that they want to avoid a direct conflict between the two powers,” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general of the think tank Royal United Services Institute in London.
“Russia knows that a conventional confrontation with NATO would end very quickly for them. However, it makes sense to voice the idea that he’s willing to take that risk if it means getting more concessions from the West.”
Several European officials and NATO sources agreed with the analysis that Putin was unlikely to move towards a nuclear escalation, although the possibility had to be taken seriously and avoided. The question is, at what cost is avoided?
It is very likely that Ukraine will continue to demand more arms and more support from its allies the longer the war goes on. Each NATO member will have to weigh up whether it’s worth the risk or whether the delays are doing the Kremlin a favor.
Women stand next to damaged houses as workers try to repair power cables after Russian missile attacks January 26, 2023 in Hlevakha on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine. Credit: Roman Pilipey/Getty Images
Herbst believes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a stark reminder of what it was like to deal with an aggressive Kremlin, and that Western officials had temporarily forgotten Soviet Union Cold War tactics.
“The West’s reluctance is because we’ve had major power peace for most of the past 30 years,” he says. “We are just discovering things we knew at the height of the Cold War. And the only reason we’re seeing this now is because one of the major powers has decided they don’t like the existing world order.”
As the war progresses, the West and NATO are forced to learn hard lessons in real time.
But every time Russia warns of an escalation, Western capitals must keep in mind the following fact: Russia is the aggressor in this conflict, and the West is far from at war with Russia.
And no matter what Kremlin officials make about Western attempts to destroy Russia, only one sovereign state has invaded another sovereign state and illegally claimed parts of its territory by force.