Resistance to military rule in Myanmar has been defined by optimism.
When the military first seized power on February 1, 2021, the resulting peaceful mass protests resembled a jubilant street festival. Protesters sang in the streets, wore silly costumes and carried humorous signs.
There were no illusions about what might come next in a country where the armed forces have a history of brutality against those who oppose them. One protester said he was willing to suffer 100 or even 1,000 deaths to see the military defeated.
Two years later, some civilians have taken up arms and joined forces with ethnic armed groups that have been fighting for greater autonomy for years. The country now appears to be locked in a full-blown civil war, with the military increasingly using air force and heavy weaponry against their poorly armed opponents.
Some estimates put the death toll in 2022 at more than 20,000, including civilians and militants – second only to Ukraine – but those determined to oust the generals remain hopeful.
“Some of our comrades died in combat, but surrendering now is not an option,” said Albert, a battalion commander with the anti-coup Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF), which mainly operates in nearby Kayah State and southern Shan State operates the Thai border.
“There will be a breakthrough in 2023 if we can maintain the current momentum.”
A new analysis (PDF) released on the eve of the coup anniversary by Tom Andrews, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, found there have been about 10,000 attacks and armed clashes between the military and opponents, as well as violent incidents since the coup had occurred in at least 78 percent of townships between July and December 2022.
While this suggests the regime is no closer to consolidating its grip on the country, it also does not appear to be on the brink of collapse.
“A new equilibrium has emerged. There must be significant developments on both sides to change the current standoff,” said Min Zaw Oo, Executive Director of the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, who has years of experience in conflicts in Myanmar.
“The landscape as a whole has remained the same in 2022,” he said, adding that the military failed to restore most theaters to “the pre-coup status quo,” while the resistance was unable to “strategic secure areas”.
The ruins of a village school destroyed in a military airstrike on Mutraw district in Karen state earlier this month [File: Free Burma Rangers via AP Photo]
Anti-coup forces have attempted to seize control of several key urban centers — such as the cities of Moebye in southern Shan State and Kawkareik and Kyondoe in Kayin State. But while they often manage to rout the forces, the military’s increasing use of remote-controlled artillery and airborne forces makes it difficult to hold the territory gained.
“Airstrikes have a big impact on that… We want to take control of cities and urban areas, but without air defenses that’s pretty difficult. Even if we can capture an area, it’s difficult to control without air defenses,” said Taw Nee, spokesman for the Karen National Union (KNU), one of Myanmar’s oldest and most powerful ethnic armed groups, which allies itself with the pro-province has. Democracy Resistance, commonly known as the People’s Defense Forces (PDF).
Min Zaw Oo also pointed out that while the success rate of attacks on “military fortified positions” is around 40 to 45 percent, resistance groups are often unable to hold and defend seized bases or outposts. Instead, they often choose to destroy them, as illustrated by the recent fire at an outpost in the township of Bawlakhe, Kayah state.
“The nature of the opposition strike is still a guerrilla attack,” Min Zaw Oo said.
Some conflict analysts have argued that resistance groups should continue to stamp out the regime through guerrilla attacks rather than attempting to seize territory. Anthony Davis, a security analyst for the publication Jane’s Defense, warned in November against “rushing to try to move from guerrilla tactics to semi-conventional operations.”
Shift the balance
Min Zaw Oo said there are four “obstacles” the resistance must overcome, including better access to weapons (he estimates that only 10 percent of resistance fighters have automatic weapons), securing support for more powerful armed ethnic groups, and improved chain of command .
Support from neighboring countries such as China and Thailand is also necessary.
“Without overcoming these obstacles, the opposition would not be able to change in their favour,” he said.
While some major ethnic armed organizations have thrown their weight behind the pro-democracy movement – such as the KNU, the Chin National Front (CNF), the Karenni Army and the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) – others have been more cautious.
The country’s most powerful non-state armed group, the United Wa State Army, has instead exploited the military’s weakened position to demand more formal recognition of territory it controls. But in a potential game-changer, two other influential groups have shown increasing signs of colluding with anti-regime forces.
Albert says he saw improvements for the KNDF in 2022 compared to the previous year, including a more established chain of command, better access to modern weapons and more professional military training.
But he says there have also been setbacks, such as the loss of the early element of surprise when the regime was caught unawares by widespread armed uprisings against its rule.
“In the past the junta underestimated us… now they are well prepared. They place many landmines around their bases. It’s weeks before reconnection hits them now,” he said.
“And we have to attack it quickly and withdraw because after 30 or 45 minutes … military jets will come.”
In recent months, the military has escalated its airstrikes, turning away from its usual policy of using airstrikes primarily in support of ground forces or terrorizing civilian communities it believes are aiding resistance fighters.
Now it bombards high-level targets more regularly, often without ground combat, such as B. a KIO event in November, CNF HQ in early January, and a PDF base in late January.
Anti-regime armed groups and human rights activists have repeatedly urged the international community to declare a no-fly zone or impose an embargo on the supply of aviation fuel to Myanmar. An investigation by Amnesty International last year showed that even fuel allegedly sent to Myanmar for commercial purposes had been intercepted by the military.
Even in the face of this powerful attack, the Resistance’s optimism remains evident.
“We hoped that one day the military would use airstrikes on us,” said Myo Thura Ko Ko, spokesman for the Cobra Column joint command, which operates under the leadership of the KNU and PDF. He sees the regime’s increasing reliance on airstrikes as evidence it is losing ground.
“The military uses airstrikes when their troops are losing on the battlefield or when their morale is low,” he added.
The military has increasingly turned to airstrikes in the past year, which opponents see as a sign of their weakness [File: Aung Shine Oo/AP Photo]
Htet Ni, a spokesman for the CNF, agrees.
“We must continue our revolution even if the worst happens. There is nothing else to say. The stronger the revolution gets, the more military airstrikes will hit us,” he said.
Htet Ni says the increasing reliance on airstrikes has only pushed the established ethnic armed groups closer to their new PDF allies.
“It has created more unity among us… There will never be retreat. This is our chance to overthrow the military, so we will go into battle with the people.”