Russia is planning a major offensive to coincide with the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine on February 24, according to the country’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
Speaking to French media, Reznikov warned that Russia would deploy a large contingent of mobilized troops. Referring to Russia’s overall mobilization of 300,000 conscripts in September last year, he claimed that the numbers at the border suggest the true figure could be closer to 500,000.
“We don’t underestimate our enemy,” Reznikov said. “Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, we estimate it’s a lot more.”
The Guardian has not been able to independently verify these figures.
On Wednesday evening, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces were trying to rake in gains to mark the anniversary of their invasion in February and released a somber report on the situation in eastern Donetsk province.
“There has been a significant increase in the occupier’s offensive operations on the front in the east of our country. The situation has become tougher,” Zelenskyy said in a video address.
Reznikov said the offensive is likely to focus on two areas: the east of the country, which has seen heavy fighting in recent weeks; and the south.
“We think so in light of that [Russia] lives in the symbolism, they will try to try something around February 24th.”
Last week, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, also warned that Russia was preparing a wave of offensives to mark the anniversary of the February 24 invasion.
He claimed Russian troops were given the task of going “beyond the borders” of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Donetsk and Luhansk make up the Donbass, a region bordering Russia that President Vladimir Putin identified as a target for takeover from the start of the war.
Lugansk Governor Serhiy Haidai has claimed that Russian forces are evicting residents near Russian-held parts of the front line so they cannot inform Ukrainian artillery forces of troop deployments.
“There is an active transmission of [Russian troops] into the region and they’re definitely preparing for something on the eastern front in February,” Haidai said.
Ukraine’s defense minister was in France to meet President Emmanuel Macron and secure the purchase of air defense radars. He also lobbied for European nations to send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, which Macron said his country has not ruled out.
“We tell our partners that we too must be ready as soon as possible,” Reznikov told French media. “That’s why we need weapons to contain the enemy.”
Intelligence experts and analysts have long suspected that Russia would likely launch another offensive before spring. Much of the fighting in the east of the country has been at an impasse for many weeks, with both sides reportedly suffering heavy casualties as they embed.
At least three people were killed in the eastern city of Kramatorsk late Wednesday after a Russian missile attack destroyed an apartment building.
“At least eight apartment buildings were damaged. One of them was completely destroyed,” police said in a Facebook post. “People can stay under the rubble.”
Regional Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko released an image that appeared to show a four-storey building in Kramatorsk that had suffered major damage.
“This is not a repetition of the past, it is the daily reality of our country – a country with absolute evil on its borders,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram after the attack.
In a separate tweet, Zelenskyy wrote: “The only way to stop Russian terrorism is to defeat it. through tanks. fighter jets. long-range missiles.”
Portal contributed to this report