In recent weeks, China appears to have been plagued by several erratic strategies. The sudden lifting of measures to combat COVID-19, the economy growing at its lowest rate in 40 years, the high-altitude surveillance balloon violating American airspace just before an important two-day meeting in Beijing between the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken and several senior figures Chinese leaders…
The Chinese government is piling up one wrong decision after another. This lame oar is unusual. Their ultimate responsibility rests with Xi Jinping, whose incompetence has become increasingly evident since he consolidated power last November.
1. What kind of Chinese balloon flies over the United States?
The Chinese government claims the balloon went off course due to strong winds. He also claims that it is just a balloon designed to collect scientific data. But if so, why didn’t Beijing warn Canada and the United States that their airspace would be violated by a Chinese plane? According to the New York Times, citing Chinese military newspapers, high-altitude balloons have become popular espionage tools because they can gather information not only about what is happening on the ground but also from satellites in space above them. The military balloon hypothesis seems plausible, especially since the Chinese have accepted without batting an eyelid that Blinken is postponing his visit to Beijing tomorrow and Monday.
2. What does this incident reveal?
If the hypothesis of a military espionage balloon is confirmed, it must be concluded that the army does not care at all about the effects of its actions in other areas. China has just drawn attention to its espionage operations once again, which is always undesirable. Also, this affair caused the Blinken meetings to be postponed.
3. Could the United States use this incident for propaganda purposes?
If it’s a military intelligence ship, as Washington says, why doesn’t the US military shoot it down before gathering vital information? It seems the United States is not shy about taking advantage of the bad publicity this balloon is giving China. On the other hand, in the event of a violation of Chinese airspace by American planes, the launching of this balloon would lead to mutual gestures from China.
4. Why does this incident challenge Xi Jinping’s power?
To take a picture, it seems that the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing. Xi has increasingly centralized powers, thanks in particular to the proliferation of small inter-ministerial groups on key issues, groups he chairs himself. One of the most important tasks of the management is the avoidance and mediation of conflicts of interest between departments. It seems that Xi has failed to prevent the conflict between defense and foreign policy. Has Xi accumulated responsibilities beyond his work capacity? It is possible. It could also be that the military discredited Xi and did not see fit to update him on certain activities.
5. And Canada?
Canada can’t do much, although the ball probably flew over their territory. It will continue to be towed by NORAD, that is, the United States.
