We are the third unidentified flying object shot down by the US Air Force over the skies of North America (United States and Canada), in addition to the first spy balloon to be struck while flying over the Atlantic Seaboard. What does this sudden spread mean, what is behind it? And what did we find relevant about the first spy balloon? Some conclusions are alarming: there is a real lack of coordination between Xi Jinping and his armed forces, and there are no de-escalation mechanisms between the United States and China. Nor is it reassuring to discover the real reason why the Chinese are so focused on a different and theoretically less sophisticated spy tool than satellites. The affair also puts Europe in question.
Here is my summary of the most recent statements: they come from US intelligence and the White House, from some politicians who sit on parliamentary committees and have access to military information, and from the analysis of one of my favorite geopolitical experts, Ian Bremmer of Eurasia group. Thanks to an interesting interview organized by the Brookings Institution in Washington, I also had access to US Air Force Chief of Staff General Charles Q. Brown (Air Force Chief of Staff).
I’ll start with the least bothersome part before moving on to the things we have to worry about the most. The three UFOs (unidentified flying objects) shot down in the last three days do not mean that there is a sudden invasion of American skies by a hostile force. These were shot down over the northwest coast skies between Alaska and Canada (one at the request of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who triggered military support to the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or Norad, a bilateral US-Canada military command structure) have not yet been identified , they are smaller than the spy balloon, and it is not certain if they are of Chinese origin. A US secret service agent observed that there was a lot of rubbish in the sky: including flying objects of private origin, undeclared and without permission. Plus, of course, the spy tools of various nations, not just China’s (there’s Russia, for example, bordering Alaska).
The reason we suddenly seem to be witnessing an invasion is because the White House has ordered the Pentagon to change the standards by which intercept and launch missions are triggered. Previously the same objects would have been ignored, now American radars have been modified to have much higher sensitivity. US Air Force Chief General Brown confirms: we changed the sensitivity of our radars, now we see things we didn’t see before. explanation? Even if nobody admits it too explicitly, they are largely linked domestically. Republicans accused Biden of flying the Chinese spy balloon over the entire continental United States for four days, gathering information and relaying it to Beijing. The topic became heated, and Biden had to react accordingly. US skies are now on a much higher alert than they were a week ago, eavesdropping attempts are more easily triggered. Someone wonders if the bill American taxpayers foot isn’t too high: every combat mission that intercepts and shoots down a flying object has a stratospheric cost. (An amusing note for science fiction enthusiasts: one current claims that the whole legend of extraterrestrial UFO sightings has been promoted by the Pentagon for years to avoid accounting for too many overflights that have escaped military surveillance) .
I come to the most alarming news. First. Apparently, China has actually expanded its espionage program with balloons. The reason: a plan B in case a conflict breaks out that could see its satellites being blinded by the US. In short, one of the many scenarios of World War III after the invasion of Taiwan. The balloons, low-tech instruments, could provide a backup solution to continue spying on America from the air if the Chinese satellite network struggles. In addition, the intercept-launch of a spy balloon provides the Chinese with a wealth of valuable information about the state of preparation of the US Air Force, how American radars work, etc. US intelligence believes it has gathered evidence that Xi Jinping was caught off-guard when the Americans accused him of spy ballooning and decided to postpone Foreign Minister Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing. Communications between Xi and the leaders of the People’s Liberation Army would have been intercepted, with evidence that the President of the Republic and the Secretary-General of the Communist Party were unaware of the details of the spy balloon program, or at least did not know that one of those balloons was flying over the at that moment US skies and could jeopardize the dress rehearsal of a partial bilateral thaw (Blinken’s visit, to be precise). This degree of operational autonomy of Chinese military spheres from political power may be normal, but at the same time it multiplies the possibilities for misunderstandings between Washington and Beijing with potentially disastrous consequences.
Even more so given Xi’s subsequent reaction: he continued to advocate the lie of the balloon for meteorological studies, did not mention any diplomatic apology, on the contrary he reacted angrily, with the result of exacerbating rather than de-dramatizing the crisis. This lack of agreed mechanisms for de-escalation on the Beijing-Washington axis – unlike the Moscow-Washington hotline during the first Cold War – is perhaps the most worrying of all the crises that can erupt. On the horizon, for example, is a visit to Taiwan by the new House Speaker, Republican Kevin McCarthy. Will China react as it did to Nancy Pelosis? Today Beijing accused the United States of having spy balloons over the People’s Republic sky. Warning: China also considers the sky over the island of Taiwan to be its sky.
The last worrying element concerns Europe. US intelligence has revealed that there are at least 40 Chinese spy balloons around the world, many flying over the old continent. The USA and Canada set a precedent with the culling. What will the Europeans do now? If they react differently, a double standard will arise within NATO.
February 13, 2023, 5:50 p.m. – Change February 13, 2023 | 6:26 p.m
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