NATO member states are locked in a “logistics race” with Russia to deliver essential supplies of munitions to Ukraine’s army as Moscow launches its expected offensive in the east of the country, the alliance’s chief has warned.
Jens Stoltenberg said Russia had already launched a long-awaited offensive in eastern Ukraine ahead of the first anniversary of President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion on February 24, prompting the Ukrainian army to use up ammunition at an unprecedented rate. The NATO Secretary General’s sharp comments came on the eve of a meeting of allied defense ministers trying to coordinate arms shipments to Ukraine.
“The reality is we’ve seen the beginning [of the Russian offensive] already . . . Sending thousands and thousands more troops,” Stoltenberg told reporters on Monday. “It is clear that we are in the logistics race. key functions such as ammunition. . . must reach Ukraine before Russia can take the initiative on the battlefield.
“A war of attrition becomes a logistical struggle,” he said. “Yes, we have a challenge. yes we have a problem . . but we have a strategy to address that.”
The ammunition shortage in Ukraine is “acute,” a senior Western intelligence official told the Financial Times, adding that the speed of Western supplies is critical to the outcome of Russia’s attempt to regain initiative in the war.
It is estimated that Kyiv’s armed forces fire more than 5,000 artillery shells every day – the equivalent of the orders of a smaller European country in a whole peacetime year.
Russia is estimated to be shooting four times as much every day as it tries to gain territory in the east of the country and send tens of thousands of newly trained conscripts to war.
Russian troops are nearing the capture of the city of Bakhmut in the Donbass region in fierce fighting compared to World War I conditions. At the same time, Moscow is targeting Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure nationwide with long-range missiles.
“The war in Ukraine is consuming a tremendous amount of ammunition and depleting Allied stockpiles. The current rate of ammunition expenditure of Ukraine is several times higher than our current production rate. That puts our defense industry under pressure,” said Stoltenberg.
Munitions are expected to be the most critical topic of discussion at the NATO defense ministers’ meeting, which will also discuss the possibility of deploying fighter jets.
Stoltenberg said waiting times for factory delivery for large caliber ammunition had increased from 12 months to 28 months.
“We don’t just sit and do nothing. . . The industry has the ability to ramp up production in the short term,” he added. “You can have more shifts, you can work on weekends.
“We need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacity,” he said.
NATO recently completed an emergency inventory check of its allied armies’ ammunition stockpiles and future orders in response to the extraordinary depletion of reserves caused by wartime support to Ukraine.
This would allow the Alliance to better understand where supplies are most strained and where the most immediate focus is needed, Stoltenberg said.
Ukraine’s western allies “need to take matters into their own hands as soon as possible in defending their territory,” said Julianne Smith, US ambassador to NATO, adding that this week they made “new and additional commitments” expect
Separately, Poland began training Ukrainian troops on German Leopard 2 main battle tanks on Monday. The month-long training in the southern Polish village of Świętoszów is conducted by Polish, Canadian and Norwegian military instructors.
“105 soldiers are trained here,” said the commander of the training group, Lieutenant Colonel Krzysztof Sieradzki, adding that more Ukrainian soldiers were expected.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said the international pro-Leopard coalition announced last month is beginning to come together as Canada has already shipped tanks to Poland, which will be shipped to Ukraine after the soldiers’ training is complete. “We are waiting for tanks from Norway, the instructors are already there. We are in advanced talks with the Spanish side,” Błaszczak said.