The Pentagon understands Russian forces are several days behind where they wanted to be in eastern Ukraine at the time, according to a senior defense official.
The Russians expected that they had made further progress in their goal of capturing Ukrainian troops in the east and thought that according to the Pentagon assessment this had already been achieved. They are “nowhere close” to their goal of completely encircling Ukrainian forces, the official said.
According to the official, Russian forces have made slow, uneven and gradual advances in eastern and southern Ukraine, partly because they are wary of overhauling supply lines, as they did in northern Ukraine early in the invasion, and also because the effectiveness of the Ukrainian resistance.
“They’re not moving very fast,” the official said. “A few kilometers a day is the maximum they can handle.”
The Russians have now deployed 92 tactical battalion groups, generally consisting of 800 to 1,000 troops, to fight in Ukraine. The official warned that despite the Russians’ numerical advantage over the Ukrainians, the fighting in Donbass could become a long drudgery as both sides know the terrain and both sides use long-range artillery in the fight.
To the east, the Russians are concentrating on advancing out of Izyum along three main axes—southwest toward Dobropillya, slightly southeast toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, and further southeast toward Lyman. The Russians are also attempting to advance on Lyman from an eastern town they control, Kremmina.
About a dozen Russian tactical battalion groups were in and around Mariupol, but some of them started moving north towards Zaporizhia Oblast this week. The Russians continue to attack Mariupol from the air, indicating that they do not yet control the city.
The Russians have conducted limited offensives in the east, while conducting what the Pentagon calls “shaping operations” in preparation for a major offensive.
Russia initially invaded Ukraine along multiple axes and is now focusing on the smaller geographic area of Donbass, where Ukrainian soldiers have been battling Russian-backed separatists since 2014 using heavier weapons such as artillery in advance of an expected prolonged battle.
According to the Pentagon, more than 60% of the 90 howitzers provided by the US have ended up in Ukrainian hands. Once arms reach Ukraine, the US will not pursue them, so it is unclear whether the howitzer artillery pieces have already made it to the front lines in the Donbass region.
The howitzers are new to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and require some training. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby announced on Friday that some Ukrainians are being trained on howitzers and other systems at US military facilities in Germany.
One hundred and sixty members of the Florida National Guard had trained Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine before departing in early February ahead of the invasion, and now they conduct most of the training on the systems, according to Kirby. All training takes place outside of Ukraine.
There were emotional moments between the Guardsmen and some of the Ukrainian soldiers during their recent reunion because of the bonds formed before the invasion, Kirby said.
The artillery pieces and other equipment announced in recent aid packages are aimed at what Ukrainians have been asking for in anticipation of intense fighting in the east.
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