DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. – Who will win the Daytona 500?
The unpredictable nature of racing at Daytona International Speedway gives almost every driver in the field a chance.
I’ve attempted to describe those opportunities here as I break down the 40-car Daytona 500 field as the drivers prepare for 200 laps on Sunday (2:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App). The order in the groups is by starting position.
Former Winners
Can these former Daytona 500 winners repeat themselves?
Starting place: 3rd Joey Logano (Team Penske #22 Ford): All he did is win. He won the 2022 season finale to win the Cup championship. He won his qualifying race on Thursday evening, giving him momentum for the season opener. He won the 2015 Daytona 500 and has four career Superspeedway wins. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he picked up the No. 32 career win Sunday night.
6. Austin Cinderic (Team Penske #2 Ford): Cindric won the Daytona 500 as a rookie a year ago. It would be an even bigger surprise for him to get his first two career cup wins back-to-back – not because he doesn’t have the talent, but the only rider to have won consecutive Daytona 500s in the last 13 years is Denny Hamlin. In fact, Hamlin is the only driver to have claimed multiple Daytona 500 victories in the past 13 years.
11. Michael McDowell (Front Row Motorsports #34 Ford): McDowell has been a strong Superspeedway racer in the past and his 2021 Daytona 500 win (his only Cup win, coming in his 358th Cup start) proves that. He’s got a new crew chief this year, so whether they’re in sync could be crucial.
13. Kevin Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing #4 Ford): In his final Cup season and final Daytona 500, Harvick won’t feel guilty about taking more than he gives. He won that race in 2007, one of the greatest of his 60 career cup victories. He has a top 10 in his last six Superspeedway starts and only two top 10s in his last 10 Daytona starts.
18 Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing #11 Toyota): With three Daytona 500 wins and five on the Superspeedways, he has a chance if he ends up close to the front. He’s already defied the odds as he’s the only driver to have won more than one Daytona 500 in the past 13 years. He hasn’t made a top 10 in his last three Daytona starts, so maybe he’s due again. What Hamlin does well is that he can win when he leads into the last round (like he did in 2019 and 2020) as well as when he’s not, as he finished fourth with one round to go before winning in 2016 .
27 Austin Dillon (Richard Childress Racing #3 Chevrolet): Never count out the #3 in Daytona. Dillon won 2018 and also won the last race at Daytona where he won a battle of attrition in August. He knows how to move in the draft—at the 2018 Daytona 500, he finished 12th with 10 rounds to go.
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Austin Dillon looks at the photo of him winning after the 1998 Daytona 500 and tells us what he remembers.
39 Jimmie Johnson (Legacy Motor Club #84 Chevrolet): The two-time Daytona 500 winner (2006, 2013) has not raced in the cup since the 2020 season finale. Even after 60 laps on Thursday night he said he wasn’t ready for the Daytona 500. But after some practice on Friday and Saturday he felt he should be. One perk for Johnson: He’s not running all season, so if he wins he won’t take a playoff spot – which could be an incentive for a competitor to push Johnson instead of someone else.
One spot better?
Daytona 500 runners-up need one spot:
7. Ryan Blaney (Team Penske #12 Ford): Cindric blocked him on the last lap last year. Blaney certainly hasn’t forgotten. He also hasn’t forgotten that he finished second in 2017. He also hasn’t forgotten that he finished second in 2020. The lessons have been learned and will be used on Sunday evening.
8th. Chase Eliot (Hendrick Motorsports #9 Chevrolet): Elliott, who finished second at the 2021 Daytona 500, won the last Superspeedway race (at Talladega in October) and seems confident about the moves that will work as the next-gen car enters its second season. Elliott is also tied with Michael McDowell for the longest active top 10 streak in the Daytona 500 – with two top 10 finishes in the last two years.
15 Bubba Wallace (23XI Racing #23 Toyota): Wallace has two second Daytona 500 finishes – in 2018 and 2022 – but his other Daytona 500s have not done well (38th, 15th and 17th). Team co-owner Michael Jordan will be watching here, and Wallace would love nothing more than to put Jordan (in addition to himself) on the winning track at Daytona.
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Bobby Labonte and David Ragan believe Martin Truex Jr. and Bubba Wallace should be favorites to win the 2023 Daytona 500.
16 Martin Truex Jr. (Joe Gibbs Racing #19 Toyota): On one occasion he lost the Daytona 500 by 0.01 seconds to Denny Hamlin. That’s a sign it’s destiny — either he’ll win it a day after such a heartbreak or he won’t. In 73 career Superspeedway starts he has no wins, three seconds, six top 5 finishes and 16 top 10 finishes. He has only three top five finishes in 35 Daytona starts. On the other hand, he won the first two stages of the Daytona 500 before finishing 13th.
36 Kyle Bush (Richard Childress Racing #8 Chevrolet): Busch was strong in his tackle before being turned around and now having to come from behind with a reserve car. That might not be as difficult as it seems and at least his tenure at RCR started with him feeling the cars are fast. Busch led 324 laps of the Daytona 500, the most laps of any non-race driver. In 2019 he finished second.
Summer race winners, can 500 win?
These riders (in addition to Blaney and Busch) won the Summer Cup race at Daytona but are still looking for a 500 win.
4. Aric Almirola (Stewart-Haas Racing #10 Ford): He won his duel on Thursday and is brimming with confidence knowing how to hit the road to victory at Daytona – having won two of the qualifying races of his career as well as the 2017 Daytona summer race. He almost won the Daytona 500 in 2018 before being shot by Austin Dillon trying to hold on to the lead.
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Joey Logano won Duel 1 while Aric Almirola won Duel 2 ahead of Sunday’s race.
10 Brad Keselowski (Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing #6 Ford): Keselowski didn’t make many friends last year with his aggressive pushing, which continued in his tackle. It remains to be seen whether that will catch up with him again. He won the 2016 summer race at Daytona. On a 62-race winning streak, Keselowski’s last Cup win came at a Superspeedway when he clinched victory in October 2021 at Talladega.
21 William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports #24 Chevrolet): Byron won a big late-model race earlier in the week at a short track near Daytona. Don’t count him out. He won the August 2020 race at Daytona and finished second at the 2019 summer race. However, the Daytona 500 has not been friendly, finishing 40th, 26th and 38th in his last three starts in the race.
25 Eric Jones (Legacy Motor Club #43 Chevrolet): Jones has a knack for winning at some of NASCAR’s most historic tracks, including a July 2018 win at the Daytona Cup race. Having a few teammates in this race could be a big help in the draft. He will have to overcome recent frustration with Daytona, having not had a top 10 there since the 2019 Daytona 500.
28 Justin Haley (Kaulig Racing #31 Chevrolet): Haley won the 2019 summer race on a pit strategy call as it started to rain. But if he wins it outright, few would consider it a huge surprise. He has finished in the top 15 in four of his last five Superspeedway races.
31 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (JTG Daugherty Racing #47 Chevrolet): He’s a solid superspeedway racer – he won two superspeedway events in 2017, including the summer Daytona race – but still fickle. He hasn’t had a top-10 in his last 10 Daytona starts, nor in his last 10 Superspeedway starts overall.
Ready to jump
Drivers who do not fit into the above categories have the best chance of winning.
1. Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports #48 Chevrolet): He didn’t learn much about his car in the draft because it was designed for single-car speed to win pole. He has to learn quickly on Sunday. He hasn’t made a top 20 in his last three Daytona 500s and only has a top 5 at superspeedways.
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Teammates Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson claim the front row for the 2023 Daytona 500 after qualifying.
2. Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports #5 Chevrolet): Larson has a fast car. Can he make the right moves in the draft? He hasn’t been able to do that on the superspeedways, especially lately. He has only one top five finish at Superspeedways, with a fourth at Talladega in 2022. His best chance at the Daytona 500 came in 2017 when he ran out of gas on the final lap while taking the lead.
5. Christopher Bell (Joe Gibbs Racing #20 Toyota): Bell didn’t show his full hand at the end of his qualifying race on Thursday, where perhaps a more aggressive move would have resulted in victory. Daytona hasn’t been kind to him – no top-10 in six starts, including 32nd, 34th and 36th in his last three starts.
9. Chris Buescher (Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing #17 Ford): He’s a strong superspeedway racer – he won a qualifying race a year ago and was right in the thick of it on Thursday night. He should be strong on Sunday – he finished third at the 2020 Daytona 500, one of his three top five races at superspeedways.
23 Ross Chastain (Trackhouse Racing #1 Chevrolet): Chastain is a Florida native who won at Talladega last spring, but whether that will translate to Daytona 500 success is debatable. He has just one top-10 finish in his nine career Daytona starts with a best-of-seven finish in the 2021 Daytona 500.
Daytona not their jam
These riders have strong résumés but Daytona wasn’t their best Cup track.
24. Daniel Suarez (Trackhouse Racing #99 Chevrolet): Suarez knows Trackhouse will be his home for years to come and he knows he has a strong car. But his best result in 11 starts at Daytona is 17th.
26 Tyler Reddick (23XI Racing #45 Toyota): He helped guide then-teammate Austin Dillon to victory at Daytona last August. Whether he’ll be able to get a nudge from anyone on Sunday is debatable given that his average finish last year at drafting circuits was 27th and he’s only finished eight of his last 15 races at those circuits.
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Tyler Reddick talks about the people he relies on at 23XI, including his crew chief and other various members of the team.
29 AJ Allmendinger (Kaulig Racing #16 Chevrolet): Allmendinger doesn’t love that style of racing, and this will be his first Daytona 500 since 2018. He’s finished inside the top 10 in his last four Cup starts at Daytona, but that was in 2017 and 2018.
30 Hunt Briscoe (Stewart-Haas Racing #14 Ford): Briscoe has only one top-5 at superspeedways (third in last year’s Daytona 500) and usually finishes between 10th and 20th at those tracks.
Upset in the making
The victory of these drivers would be classified as a surprise.
12. Corey LaJoie (Spire Motorsports #7 Chevrolet): LaJoie is a good superspeedway racer and almost won in Atlanta last year. But whether he gets help late in the race remains to be seen.
14 death Gilland (Front Row Motorsports #38 Ford): Gilliland made a great save late in his qualifying race on Thursday. He has a fast car and was seventh at Talladega last fall. He was 33rd and 23rd in his two Daytona starts during his rookie season last year.
19 Harrison Burton (Wood Brothers Racing #21 Ford): Burton was watching the Super Bowl when he saw a Daytona commercial in which his car rolled over. He’s hoping to keep all four wheels on the ground this year. He finished 39th and 19th in his rookie season at Daytona.
20 Ryan Preece (Stewart-Haas Racing #41 Ford): Preece is back racing full-time in the Cup, but he’ll be more comfortable at Fontana next week than at the Superspeedway. In his last two Daytona starts he was sixth and fourth.
32 BJ McLeod (Live Fast Motorsport #78 Chevrolet): The team’s co-owner knows that staying out of trouble is crucial for him.
35 CodyWare (Rick Ware Racing #51 Ford): Ware makes his sixth start at Daytona. He was sixth in the attrition race last August. It was his only top 10 finish in his last 10 Superspeedway starts.
37 Ty Dillon (Spire Motorsports #77 Chevrolet): It would be epic if 25 years after Dale Earnhardt won the 500 and Ty Dillon (grandson of Richard Childress) was among the revelers in Victory Lane that Dillon could win the 500. Don’t count him out completely. He has five top 10 finishes on superspeedways.
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Ty Dillon was also on the road to victory at the 1998 Daytona 500. What does he remember and what did that moment mean?
The newbies
These drivers are either rookies or in their first Daytona 500.
17 Zane Smith (Front Row Motorsports #36 Ford): Smith is making only his second Cup start in a third car for the organization. The 2022 truck series champion should enjoy the experience and learn the draft as he becomes a full-time cup driver.
22 Noah Gragson (Legacy Motor Club #42 Chevrolet): Gragson makes his second Daytona 500 start as he begins his first full-time season in the Cup. He finished 31st at the 2022 Daytona 500.
33 Ty Gibbs (Joe Gibbs Racing #54 Toyota): Gibbs, the 2022 Xfinity Series Champion, is making his debut in the Daytona 500. He raced at Daytona last August and finished 13th.
34 Conor Daly (The Money Team Racing #50 Chevrolet): Daly got lucky when the two cars he had to beat to make it into the Daytona 500 field on Thursday ended in a wreck. The IndyCar Series driver will need to find some speed to keep up on Sunday in the car, owned by Floyd Mayweather.
38 Riley Autumn (Rick Ware Racing #15 Ford): Herbst makes his first Daytona 500 start – and Cup debut – as he drives for RWR. He has 109 career Xfinity Series starts.
The wildcard
Travis Pastrana is in a category of his own.
40 Travis Pastrana (23XI Racing #67 Toyota): The extreme sports star has nothing to lose but wants to race respectfully in his Cup debut. He will turn heads and he knows how to put on a show.
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Travis Pastrana on the irony that he had contact with Austin Hill in the accident, allowing Pastrana’s good friend Conor Daly to race the Daytona 500.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsport, including the past 30 Daytona 500, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene Magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpock breedand sign up for the FOX Sports NASCAR newsletter with Bob Pockrass.
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