“Putin has managed to make NATO sexy.” The line at the buffet is long and a high-ranking Allied diplomatic source is in a mood of confidence. Has…
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“Putin has managed to make NATO sexy.” The line at the buffet is long and a high-ranking Allied diplomatic source is in a mood of confidence. He’s right. Everything has changed since February 24, not only on the front lines of the Atlantic Alliance – which Emmanuel Macron branded as “brain dead” not too long ago – but also on that of the European Union.
NATO, the evolution of European defense
If the Kremlin’s war has indeed revived NATO, the new security reality calls for the 27 member countries (including the neutral ones) to review military strategies, spending plans and the effective capabilities of the armed forces. And most importantly, it will force them to work together, accelerating the process of creating the unfinished “European Defense”. But let’s start with NATO. As promised at the Bucharest summit in 2008, the tsar saw Ukraine’s (possible) accession in smoke and mirrors so much that he specifically asked Brussels and Washington for “guarantees” for Kiev’s non-membership. By launching the invasion, he instead achieved a seismic shift in public opinion in Finland and Sweden, traditionally non-aligned, paving the way for Helsinki and Stockholm to join the alliance, bringing it to 32 members. Not exactly a victory for Moscow. Furthermore, Ukraine is undergoing a crash course – at a dramatic cost in human lives and the integrity of civilian infrastructure – in the art of war under NATO doctrine, with the result that Kiev, membership or not, will emerge from the conflict with armed forces, which are effectively geared (and equipped) to Western standards.
The new goals
The Alliance, reinvigorated in its resolutions and budgets, has set new goals. Eastern Flank members, fearful of the prospect of finding Russian divisions on their doorstep, demanded and received a larger presence on their territories. The four multinational battalions stationed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland in 2017 became eight, and new troops were added in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia – the effective was brought to brigade level and he mobilized 40,000 men in the whole of NATO East. But that’s not enough. The Strategic Concept endorsed by leaders at the 2022 Madrid Summit has brought greater momentum to the “new model of armed forces”: a mix of pre-positioned assets from the Baltic to the Black Sea, combined with pre-alert and roster-trained troops , capable of mobilizing up to 300,000 troops within 15 days. And now the capitals are working to make the announcements a reality. And the European Union? Something is moving. Strategic autonomy – dear to the French, who want an old world more independent from the new – seems to be on the short end of the rope at the moment, since Putin’s war has reunited the transatlantic field, with Washington’s Eastern European “cheerleaders” more than ever.
Strategic compass, what is it?
In any case, the Strategic Compass adopted last March envisages the birth of the first Bluestar Legion (5,000 men) with joint exercises by 2023. The division of tasks seems clear: collective defense for NATO, the EU (gradually) for crisis management and advocacy (e.g. missions in Africa). The most pressing issue at the moment is the arms race. We must not only spend more, but spend better and collectively, favoring joint procurement as well as a more integrated military-industrial complex free from national jealousies – the need to replenish the Kiev stocks emptied by donations will Put capitals to the test. The future looks bleak. “The European model was based on cheap Russian energy, Chinese labor and American-paid defense,” summarized High Representative Josep Borrell. In short, everything needs to be redone.
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