“I honestly believe that Putin is bluffing when it comes to nuclear weapons and nuclear power,” the analyst said in an interview. “It’s the only thing Russia can use as a deterrent against Western military power.”
Nearly a year after the invasion of Ukraine, there are hints of escalation from both Putin and his allies. In January, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev warned that “the defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war could trigger a nuclear war”.
But political scientist Nataliia Kasianenko sees the threats in the context of a conflict that has not gone as the Kremlin expected and a strongerthanexpected alliance around Ukraine.
“I believe that the Russian President is using the nuclear charter to threaten the West and prevent Western countries from offering more support to the Ukrainian people,” he said. “I think, frankly, the President understands that if he tries to use nuclear weapons, the retribution will be strong, and Putin will not be able to survive that.”
A more immediate threat, he said, was the preparation of another attack to coincide with the first anniversary of the February 24, 2022 invasion.
“We are concerned because we have heard of plans for further advances from the Russian side and troops being massed at the border,” Kasianenko said, citing reports of 300,000 to 500,000 soldiers ready to reenter.
“We know that President Putin loves birthdays, so Ukrainians are not looking forward to this February 24,” he continued. “There are many fears that there will be another major invasion attempt to take over the capital, Kiev.”
The shadow of an escalation in the war looms over a difficult internal situation in Russia, though Kasianenko dismisses the idea that Putin could be challenged.
“There have been many discussions about power erosion and power struggles in Russia in 2022,” he said. “Some optimists believed that perhaps the generals would realize that Putin’s plan to occupy Ukraine in a few days had failed and would try to seize power.
The analyst said that the idea that Putin is alone in his determination to occupy Ukraine does not correspond to reality. “It has supporters and elites feeding it certain narratives that tell it that Russia can and will win this war,” he continued. “I’m not optimistic about a coup, I’m not optimistic that there will be a revolution in Russia that will oust Putin.”
Kasianenko stressed that Russians opposed to the war have already fled the country, in a wave of displacement that has reached millions since the conflict began. “Other people remain silent and try to avoid politics because they are afraid,” he said. “The nature of oppression in Russia has intensified dramatically since the spring of 2022.”
The solidity of the transatlantic alliance also contributed to Russia’s isolation. Despite discussion in political circles from the United States to some European countries support has remained constant. China itself, which even increased Russian energy consumption, did not finally side with the Kremlin as had been feared.
“China has tried to walk the line and basically address both sides, the West and Russia,” Kasianenko said. “In terms of military support and diplomacy, it seems that the Chinese are sending a message that war is not good for the world community and the Chinese would prefer to end the war.”
Kasianenko, a native of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, believes Putin would only be willing to end the conflict now if Russia could keep the territories he occupied.
“But these are not conditions that Ukrainians would accept, considering how many people died fighting for Ukraine and that such a large percentage of the territory was brutally occupied,” he said. “Ukrainians are not ready to negotiate these terms. It’s not just about ending conflicts and wars, it’s about the cost to Ukraine.”
Also read: A year of war in Ukraine: The phrases that marked the conflict
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