Ever since February 24, 2022, the day the Russian invasion began, it has seemed as if the conflict would spread to other countries or trigger a nuclear catastrophe: Here’s what happened in the last 12 months
When the Russian army launched its invasion of Ukraine at dawn on February 24, 2022, few expected the war to last (at least) a year. The mismatch of forces on and off the field appeared to predict Kiev’s surrender within weeks, if not days. “Putin launched his invasion almost a year ago, he thought Ukraine was weak and the West was divided. He thought he could defeat us. But he was very wrong, ”said the President of the United States Joe Biden during a visit to Kiev. In fact, the conflict has been dragging on for 12 months: during this time there was no lack of fear that the war would spread to others countries could expand until it went global, or that the conflict would somehow damage nuclear power plants scattered across Ukraine – including the remains of Chernobyl – and cause a global catastrophe, or that even the most feared specter, deployment nuclear weapons, becomes a reality (WAR IN UKRAINE: THE SPECIAL).
War in Ukraine: risk of nuclear escalation
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Although Russia did not inherit from the USSR the position of economic and political giant it occupied during the Cold War, it is still among the most heavily nuclear-armed countries: Moscow’s arsenal has about 6,000 nuclear bombs, of which 1,588 already have them have been deployed and are operational. And their use at different stages of the conflict did not seem so unlikely. On the day of the invasion, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “Anyone who tries to create obstacles for us and to interfere “in Ukraine” knows that Russia will react with unprecedented consequences. We are prepared for anything. I hope to be heard.” Just three days later, on February 27, Putin himself put the country’s nuclear deterrent system on alert. A move that was followed by no response from the only other country in the world with a comparable nuclear arsenal, The U.S. But nuclear tension has remained high ever since: senior Russian officials and Putin himself have repeatedly feared that the use of nuclear bombs could escalate the conflict.
The Russian nuclear doctrine
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Among the moments of greatest tension, it is important to remember September’s referendums – dubbed a “farce” by the Western world – on the annexation of some territories of occupied Ukraine to Russia: Donbass, Zaporizhia and Kherson. In fact, the Russian nuclear doctrine provides that the use of such weapons is acceptable in the event of a threat to the “sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state.” A scenario that has not yet materialized even after the partial liberation of the Kherson region. However, the tension has not abated: just a month ago, Dmitry Medvedev, former president and former prime minister of Russia, warned that “the defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war can lead to the outbreak of a nuclear war”. Faced with the possibility that Moscow will actually decide to use nuclear weapons, the United States has so far resorted to the so-called “strategic ambiguity” that already existed with China over Taiwan: it promised a response without specifying, which . “The use of nuclear weapons will have catastrophic consequences for Russia, the United States and our allies will respond decisively,” US President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said in September. And the feared nuclear conflict has not materialized so far.
Nuclear power plants in Ukraine
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But not only atomic bombs fuel the nuclear specter: In fact, there are four power plants in Ukraine that produce energy thanks to nuclear power, a total of fifteen active reactors in the country. Among them is the largest in the entire Old Continent, in Zaporizhia, and the dangers of a catastrophe are concentrated around it. As early as March, there were clashes between Russian and Ukrainian troops in the area of the plant, and over the months the area has been involved in clashes several times. Also in September, the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, denounced that the situation was “unsustainable” and that the bombings at the plant posed “a continuing threat to nuclear security”. In addition, the head of the agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, told Sky TG24 in December that “the danger is imminent because attacks or power cuts occur almost every day”. An “unprecedented” situation, “completely unacceptable for an industrial facility of this size and with the nuclear material it contains”. Grossi himself had denounced a few weeks earlier that the bombings around the plant had taken place “a few meters from the reactors.”
The situation in Chernobyl
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In addition, perhaps the most famous nuclear power plant in the world is located in Ukraine: Chernobyl. And this area was also the focus of disputes in the first phase of the conflict, with the remains of the plant being occupied by soldiers from Moscow at the beginning of the invasion. The fear for the fate of Chernobyl, where in 1986 the worst nuclear catastrophe in history involving the use of nuclear power for civilian purposes was recorded, was great: at some point contact with the wreck monitoring systems was broken off. The plant – located in northern Ukraine on the border with Belarus – then returned to Kiev control a few weeks later, and disturbing stories about what was happening at the time began to surface: according to various American networks, from CNN to the New York Times. Not only were Russian soldiers busy digging trenches in a heavily contaminated area such as the forest surrounding the nuclear power plant, but they also committed very dangerous actions such as touching radioactive materials with their bare hands.
The fear of an escalation of the conflict
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A year after the start of the war in Ukraine, the nuclear catastrophe seems to have been averted. However, fears remain that the conflict could escalate to the point of involving other countries. The Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, has repeatedly affirmed that “NATO is not a party to conflict”. In any case, the Atlantic Pact undertakes to support Ukraine, which is not a member of the alliance and therefore cannot demand the direct intervention of the contracting parties. A situation that repeatedly raises fears of a possible escalation of the conflict: “The NATO states are playing innocent, trying to demonstrate that they are not part of the conflict. The participation (of the NATO countries) is maximum, they have been carrying out provocative activities for many years. Now they directly control the leadership of the regime in Kiev,” according to the position expressed a few days ago by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. However, the Secretary General of the Atlantic Alliance reiterated how it was necessary “to Ukraine that to give what she needs to win the war”: “Some fear that our engagement could lead to an escalation”, but the “biggest risk is that Putin wins” as the tsar “does not plan” peace, but new offensives” and “seeks contacts with other authoritarian regimes such as Iran and North Korea”.
The missile in Poland and the prevented escalation
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Rockets Poland, Stoltenberg: These are not Russians, but Moscow is to blame
However, tensions between NATO and Russia have been very high since the beginning of the war. And the most dangerous moment was recorded on November 15, when a rocket hit the land of a farm in Przewodow, Poland, a few kilometers from the border with Ukraine. The first popular hypotheses spoke of a Russian bomb on NATO territory (Warsaw is part of the alliance), a scenario that could have accelerated events and plunged the entire Atlantic Pact into war. The tension is immediately very high, even though Moscow immediately denies that it is one of its missiles and the United States, while affirming that “we will defend every inch of NATO territory”, states that they have no proof for the attack being organized by Fly. The leaders of the G20, who were meeting in Bali at that moment, kept their nerves and over the hours it turned out that the rocket was actually Ukrainian and hit Poland due to an “unfortunate accident”, as Polish President Duda put it. “I want to say clearly” that “Kiev is not to blame for the incident,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking about the “result of the massive launch of Russian missiles into Ukraine. This is proof that Putin’s war is created.” In dangerous situations, Putin must end this war.” But over the past year, direct confrontation between NATO and Russia never seemed closer.
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In Italyin recent months, the minister had given a positive opinion Matthew Salvini. “I believe that a year of teaching the rules, good manners and duties would make good citizens,” said the leader of the league
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