This agreement, the latest version of which was signed in 2010, limits the number of warheads deployed by Russia and the United States and provides for inspections of military sites.
A new sign of defiance with echoes of the Cold War. Russia has decided to suspend its participation in the bilateral New Start nuclear disarmament agreement, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the end of a lengthy speech to the Federal Assembly on Tuesday, February 21. This treaty on the reduction of strategic nuclear arms, signed with the United States in 2010, provides in particular for limiting the arsenals of the two countries to a maximum of 1,550 warheads and 800 launchers, ie a reduction of almost 30% compared to the limit previously set in 2002.
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“These are ICBMs and they are a legacy of the Cold War,” explains Héloïse Fayet, coordinator of the Deterrence and Proliferation program at the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri) to franceinfo. Russia had already announced the suspension of American inspections at its military bases at the beginning of August, but provided for this in the agreement. “Vladimir Putin announced that he would no longer accept these inspectors because Russians would be prevented from going to the United States because of visa issues,” explains the researcher. “Which Washington had denied.”
“A Breakdown of the Control System”
Since then, the US has been unable to obtain information about the real status of the Russian nuclear program. “The US State Department therefore issued a very strict analysis in January in its annual report on the implementation of the New Start Treaty and wrote that it could not certify Russia’s compliance with the treaty,” the researcher continued. NATO had therefore asked Russia to resume these inspections, and in return Moscow had accused Washington of having destroyed the legal framework of the treaty. “Vladimir Putin’s statements are a logical continuation of this collapse of the arms control system.”
The main consequence of the suspension of Russia’s participation in New Start “is that there will no longer be notification before the training layoffs,” explains Héloïse Fayet. So far, this has been the norm, as with the successful launch of a Sarmat missile by Moscow in April 2022. “This decision therefore increases the risk of an uncontrolled escalation: If a missile now leaves Russian territory, Washington no longer knows whether or not it is an exercise,” explains the researcher.
“It will no longer be possible to follow the Russian exercises so closely, which increases the alertness on both sides.”
Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations
at franceinfo
Vladimir Putin also said that if the United States launches them first, the Defense Ministry and state-run nuclear power giant Rosatom should be ready to conduct nuclear tests. “The Americans signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), but unlike Russia, they have not ratified it,” explains Héloïse Fayet. “I can’t imagine the Americans testing a nuclear weapon any time soon, especially since they haven’t done so in decades. But this allows Vladimir Putin to unfold his narrative and associate the United States with an irresponsible power.”
NATO “regrets” Moscow’s decision
The Russian president also suggested that NATO join New Start to make that treaty fair “because the United States is not the only nuclear power within NATO.” In particular, he mentioned France and the United Kingdom, which also have nuclear arsenals.
Atlantic Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg “regretted” the suspension of Moscow’s participation in the bilateral treaty, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken denounced a “very disappointing and irresponsible” decision.
Finally, Vladimir Putin accused Washington of being involved in strike plans strategic goals. “This return to nuclear rhetoric had disappeared in recent months,” notes Héloïse Fayet. “This is not a nuclear threat, but it is a signal of further deterioration in Russian-US relations, as this was the last floor on which the two countries shared information.” That suspension, she said, “will become another file add, which must be negotiated at the end of the war”.