Ben Whishaw, Rooney Mara and Claire Foy in Women Talking.
Michael Gibson/© Orion Pictures/courtesy Everett Collection
PLEASE NOTE: This prediction, compiled by ‘s Executive Editor of Awards, Scott Feinberg, reflects Feinberg’s best attempt to predict Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences behavior, not his personal preferences. He arrives at this ranking by drawing on consultations with constituents and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, pre-Oscar awards results, and the history of the Oscars itself.
*BEST PICTURE*
Estimated order of completion
1. Everything, everywhere at once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert & Jonathan Wang)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, David Ellison & Christopher McQuarrie) – Podcast (Bruckheimer)
3. Quiet on the Western Front (Malte Grunert)
4. The Fabelmans (Kristie Macosko Krieger, Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — Podcast (Spielberg)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin & Martin McDonagh)
6. Tar (Todd Field, Scott Lambert & Alexandra Milchan)
7. Elvis (Gail Berman, Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Pamela McCormick & Schuyler Weiss)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron & Jon Landau)
9. Triangle of Sadness (Philppe Bober & Erik Hemmendorff)
10. Women Speak (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner & Frances McDormand)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything everywhere at once)
2. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) – Podcast
3. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) – Podcast coming this week
4. Todd Field (Tar)
5. Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
*BEST ACTOR*
Estimated order of completion
1. Austin Butler (Elvis)
2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
3. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) – Podcast
4. Bill Nighy (alive)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Estimated order of completion
1. Cate Blanchett (Tár) – Podcasts 1 and 2
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere at Once) – Podcast
3. Andrea Riseborough (to Leslie)
4. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) – Podcast
5. Ana de Armas (Blonde)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Estimated order of completion
1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere at Once) – Podcast coming this week
2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
5. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
*THE BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Estimated order of completion
1. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) – Podcast
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere at Once)
3. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
4. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere at Once) – Podcast
5. Hong Chau (The Whale)
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Estimated order of completion
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
2. Women Talk (Sarah Polley)
3. Life (Kazuo Ishiguro) – Podcast
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (Honor Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Estimated order of completion
1. Everything everywhere at once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh) – Podcast coming this week
3. Tár (Todd Field)
4. The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — Podcast (Spielberg)
5. Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Ostlund)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Estimated order of completion
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alex Bulkley, Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson & Gary Ungar) – Podcasts 1 and 2 (del Toro)
2. Blushing (Lindsey Collins & Domee Shi)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (Dean Fleischer Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan & Paul Mezey)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford & Mark Swift)
5. The Sea Monster (Jed Schlanger & Chris Williams)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY*
Estimated order of completion
1. Navalny (Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae & Daniel Roher)
2. Fire of Love (Shane Boris, Sara Dosa & Ina Fichman)
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John Lyons & Laura Poitras)
4. Anything That Breathes (Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann & Shaunak Sen)
5. A House of Splinters (Monica Hellström & Simon Lereng Wilmont)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Estimated order of completion
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) – Edward Berger
2nd EO (Poland) — Jerzy Skolimowski
3. Close (Belgium) — Lukas Dhont
4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) – Santiago Miter
5. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) – Colm Bairéad
*BEST CAMERA*
Estimated order of completion
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
2. Elvis (Mandy Walker)
3. Tar (Florian Hoffmeister)
4. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Fistful of Truths (Darius Khondji)
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Estimated order of completion
1. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter) – Podcast
3. Everything, everywhere at once (Shirley Kurata)
4. Babylon (Maria Zophres)
5. Mrs. Harris goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
*BEST MOVIE EDIT*
Estimated order of completion
1. Everything everywhere at once (Paul Rogers)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
3. Elvis (Matt Villa & Jonathan Redmond)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel EG Nielsen)
5. Tar (Monika Willi)
*BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLE*
Estimated order of completion
1. Elvis (Jason Baird, Mark Coulier & Aldo Signoretti)
2. The Whale (Anne Marie Bradley, Judy Chin & Adrien Morot)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Linda Eisenhamerová & Heike Merker)
4. The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Fontaine & Mike Marino)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend & Joel Harlow)
*BEST ORIGINAL RESULT*
Estimated order of completion
1. Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
2. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
3. Everything everywhere at once (Son Lux)
4. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Estimated order of completion
1. “Naatu Naatu” (RRR) – Chandrabose & MM Keeravaani
2. “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) – Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Goransson, Rihanna & Tems
3. “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) – BloodPop & Lady Gaga – Podcasts 1 and 2 (Gaga)
4. “This Is a Life” – David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski – Podcast (Byrne)
5. “Applause” (Say It Like a Woman) – Diane Warren – Podcasts 1, 2 and 3
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Estimated order of completion
1. Babylon (Anthony Carlino & Florencia Martin)
2. Elvis (Bev Dunn, Catherine Martin & Karen Murphy)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper)
4. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara)
5. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole & Ben Procter)
*BEST SOUND*
Estimated order of completion
1. Elvis (Michael Keller, David Lee, Andy Nelson & Wayne Pashley)
2. Rest on the Western Front (Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte, Frank Kruse, Viktor Prášil & Markus Stemler)
3. Top Gun: Maverick (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Mark Taylor & Mark Weingarten)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth, Gary Summers & Gwendolyn Yates Whittle)
5. The Batman (William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson & Mark Weingarten)
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Estimated order of completion
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri & Eric Saindon)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson & Ryan Tudhope)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (Markus Frank, Kamil Jafar, Viktor Müller & Frank Petzoid)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick & Chris White)
5. The Batman (Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dan Lemmon & Dominic Tuohy)
*BEST ANIMATED SHORT*
Estimated order of completion
1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Matthew Freud & Charlie Mackesy)
2. An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Wrong And I Believe I Believe It (Lachlan Pendragon)
3. My Year of Cocks (Sara Gunnarsdóttir & Pamela Ribbon)
4. The Flying Sailor (Amanda Forbis & Wendy Tilby)
5. Ice Cream Vendor (Bruno Caetano & Joao Gonzalez)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT*
Estimated order of completion
1. Stranger at the Gate (Conall Jones & Joshua Seftel)
2. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue & Beth Levison)
3. How do you measure a year? (Jay Rosenblatt)
4. The Elephant Whisperers (Kartiki Gonsalves & Guneet Monga)
5. Haulout (Maxim Arbugaev & Evgenia Arbugaeva)
*BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT*
Estimated order of completion
1. Le Pupille (Alfonso Cuarón & Alice Rohrwacher) — Podcast 1 and 2 (Cuarón)
2. The Red Suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
3. An Irish Farewell (Tom Berkely & Ross White)
4. Night drive (Gaute Lid Larssen & Eirik Tveiten)
5. Ivalu (Rebecca Pruzan & Anders Walter)