- A record 93.5 million Nigerians eligible to vote will choose from 18 candidates to replace two-year President Muhammadu Buhari.
- The country’s landmark choice will not only have a significant impact on Nigeria’s domestic economy and security, but also on its place in the global trade and diplomatic framework and on confidence in democratic transitions in West Africa.
- Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labor Party are the top three.
ABUJA, NIGER, A – FEBRUARY 18, 2023: Nigerian Labor Party supporters parade in the streets during a global march for Labor Party (LP) presidential candidate Peter Obi ahead of the Nigerian presidential election scheduled for February 25, 2023.
KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images
Nigerians head to the polls on Saturday, with unprecedented youth turnout expected amid widespread insecurity and economic hardship.
After 24 years of uninterrupted democracy since the end of military dictatorship in 1999, Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy is holding its seventh election.
Nigeria is at a crucial juncture amid record unemployment and inflation, a massive debt burden, fuel shortages, deteriorating security conditions, endemic corruption and crumbling public services.
A record 93.5 million Nigerians eligible to vote will vote from 18 candidates to replace President Muhammadu Buhari, who has reached the two-term mark.
Muhammadu Buhari, President of Nigeria, speaks at the US-Africa Business Forum in New York.
Michael Nagel | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The aspiring successor elected by the ruling All Progressives Congress party, 70-year-old former Lagos state governor Bola Tinubu is a front-runner alongside former vice president Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi, a relative outsider from the Labor party .
Obi’s disruptive and decentralized campaign has resonated with young and professional voters disillusioned with the two main parties, and some polls now lead him.
Leena Koni Hoffmann, Associate Fellow of the Africa Program at Chatham House, told CNBC on Monday that the presidential election will be the “most unpredictable” since the transition to civilian rule.
“We’ve never had these technologies in the design of Nigeria’s elections before, and we’ve never had a three-way race, and the context isn’t set up for an easy incumbent victory,” explained Koni Hoffmann. The Independent National Electoral Commission introduces unprecedented technological innovations to ensure free and fair elections.
ABUJA, NIGERIA – February 20, 2023: Former South African President Thabo Mbeki speaks to the media. The Commonwealth of Nations sent 16 observers to Nigeria’s 25 February and 11 March presidential and gubernatorial elections.
Adam Abu-Bashal/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
At a time when West Africa has been plagued by coups and violent extremism, Hoffmann added that the region “needs Nigeria to hold credible elections.”
A spate of international observers are arriving this week, including a mission led by former US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson and a Commonwealth of Nations delegation led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki. The US has also announced visa bans on people who undermine confidence in Nigeria’s democratic process.
demographics
Nigeria has one of the fastest growing populations in the world – currently nearly 220 million and expected to double by 2050. It also has one of the youngest average populations in the world, with 42% of citizens under the age of 15 and a median age of just over 18, the UN estimates.
Political engagement has increased in recent years amid deteriorating prospects for Nigeria’s youth – periods of economic growth have not expanded opportunities, social inequality has increased and youth unemployment has reached 42.5%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. According to INEC, almost 40% of registered voters are between 18 and 34 years old.
IBADAN, Nigeria – February 16, 2023: Supporters of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, parade during the party’s presidential campaign in Ibadan, Nigeria.
Adekunle Ajayi/NurPhoto via Getty Images
“The last few years have been particularly brutal for young people in Nigeria as they have endured two recessions and a weak economy with double digit inflation and the impact of food inflation,” said Koni Hoffmann.
Four in 10 Nigerians suffer from financial deprivation and more than six in 10 are “multidimensionally poor,” according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
“The kind of social mobility and independence that you would project in your early 20’s, the last few years haven’t given young people that space to take advantage of opportunities to be self-determined, which explains a lot of the frustration and dissatisfaction,” he said Koni Hoffman.
Business
First Lady Aisha Muhammadu Buhari in September apologized to Nigerians over the economic woes and growing insecurity they have been experiencing since her husband’s election in 2015. inflicted crises” under Buhari’s regime.
In 2019, the government shut down trade across Nigeria’s borders with neighboring Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger, ostensibly to curb smuggling of rice and other agricultural goods.
Economists planned the decision, which Koni Hoffmann suggested made Nigeria and its neighbors more vulnerable to the damage of the pandemic.
The government has come under fire for its multiple exchange rate regime, which aims to defend the native naira currency by artificially inflating its value. Critics argue that such interventions increase volatility by leading to larger swings in price discovery.
The oil sector accounts for more than 80% of national budget revenues, making Abuja highly vulnerable to oil price volatility and low production due to large-scale crude oil theft.
KANO, Nigeria – February 9, 2023: Supporters carry the banner of opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar and running mate Ifeanyi Okowa during a campaign rally in Kano, northwest Nigeria.
PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images
Tinubu’s foreign exchange policy is unlikely to deviate from that of the current government, analysts said, while Abubakar and Obi propose more liberal economic policies and diversification alongside greater fiscal prudence.
“No matter who wins the race for Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upward path in the short term, but a victory for an opposition candidate could significantly improve the fiscal outlook further down the line,” said Virág Fórizs, Africa economist at Capital Economics.
“The pledges by the opposition parties on fiscal discipline put Mr. Abubakar and Mr. Obi in a better position to put Nigeria’s financial house in order.”
Fórizs concluded: “The result is that from an economic perspective, the polls offer a choice between small steps away from growth-inhibiting measures and a more meaningful shift towards pro-market reforms that could unlock Nigeria’s economic potential across the board, but are close to – long-term economic pain.”
Security
Buhari took office with a promise to crack down on the Islamist militant organization Boko Haram, whose insurgency has killed thousands and displaced millions.
The government forces apparently succeeded and recaptured large areas of land from the jihadist group. However, the extremist contingent splintered into competing groups in the north, complicating the challenge for the new president.
Meanwhile, cattle bandits terrorize the north-central and northwest states, secessionists in the southeast clash with police, and cattle herders battle farmers in the “middle belt” states.
The Council on Foreign Relations Security Tracker documented around 7,000 violent deaths in Nigeria in 2022, up from 9,000 in 2021. It also confirmed an increase in state violence against civilians.
ABUJA, Nigeria – October 20, 2021: A young woman stands in front of riot police officers during a protest to commemorate the one year anniversary of EndSars, a protest movement against police brutality, at the Well of Unity in Abuja.
KOLA SULAIMON/AFP via Getty Images
This came to a head in late 2020 as thousands of youth demonstrated across the country against police brutality. Security forces attempted a violent crackdown on the protests, culminating in the massacre at the Lekki tollbooth in October 2020.
Peter Obi, the 61-year-old former governor of Anambra state, rode this wave with a vision for political and governmental reforms, including proposals to tackle entrenched insecurity and corruption while promoting social and political mobility.
“The dominant parties didn’t seem to provide the kind of channels or vessels that young people wanted, so they turned to Peter Obi, who is closest to them, to hear how different sections of young people in Nigeria would like to reshape politics of the nation,” said Hoffmann.