Ukrainian war – Victories on the field, with rockets and with “Boots on the Ground” men. This is the understanding of Wladimir Putin. A year after the beginning of the Russian invasion ofUkraine the Moscow leadership shows no sign of opening up to a negotiated solution to the conflict, instead aiming to “cease hostilities on the battlefield by gaining an advantageous position from which to dictate the terms of a future deal can”.
That is the analysis of Bruno Kahl, head of the BND, Federal Intelligence Service Abroad, quoted by the media of the RND, editorial network Germany. Moscow is still able to send many soldiers to the front: Of the 300,000 mobilized last fall, some are still in training and some have been sent into combat. Russia has “further mobilization potential” of even “a million people if this is deemed necessary by the Kremlin”.
Despite the Russian advantage, Ukraine is still able to defend itself very effectively against Moscow’s forces. “But in the long run it will be a difficult fight and could end successfully for the Ukrainian side if the West continues to provide support.” As far as the situation on the ground is concerned, according to Kahl, it is a question of trench warfare, “a cruel, brutal war of attrition”.
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Can Russia still send conscripts to the front?
But there is one element that cannot be ignored for victory: the Russian soldiers. When mobilization took place in Ukraine to start the “military special operation”, many soldiers sent to the front were told that they would take part in routine exercises. Then they found themselves in a war in Ukraine instead. Newly trained conscripts. Civilians with medical conditions that should have barred them from military service were recalled and placed in uniform. Men mobilized for war service were instructed to bring their own medical supplies due to severe shortages at the front.
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consent and war
A November 2022 poll by the Levada Center, the country’s most recognized study center, found that 49% of Russians polled agreed that “every real man should serve in the army.” It must be remembered that in Russia it is illegal to protest against the war in Ukraine or to “discredit” the army. However, the Levada Center has been conducting this survey regularly since 1997 and the results have been remarkably stable. Putin continues to enjoy broad support in Russia.
Another recent evidence of levada, in January, it saw a slight increase in supporters of the military operation, reaching 75% of the population (45% more confident, 30% more lukewarm). 71% say Russia will win in the end, even if the conflict is long. But what is striking is the considerable lack of interest in what is happening. Only 22% say they follow the conflict “very closely” and a further 35% say they follow it “fairly closely”.
A year on from a military operation that Moscow expected it would easily win, there are growing signs of anger, frustration and resistance from Russian soldiers. The same ones that Putin believes can win the war in Ukraine on the field.
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