Abuja, Nigeria (CNN) – Nigerians will go to the polls on Saturday in a hotly contested presidential election that analysts say is too close to name.
It will be the largest democratic exercise on the continent as Africa’s most populous nation elects a new president.
The ultimate choice comes as the country grapples with a myriad of economic and security problems, ranging from fuel and cash shortages to escalating terrorist attacks, high inflation and a collapse in the local currency.
For the first time since the country’s return to democratic rule in 1999, none of the candidates are incumbents or former military leaders.
Outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari is on a temporary term and will step down amid a patchy legacy that has brought “a lot of frustration and anger” to Nigerian voters, analysts say.
Who are the candidates?
Eighteen candidates are in the race for Nigeria’s highest office, each confident they can turn the tide of the country if they come to power, but opinion polls suggest three are leading the popular vote race.
One of the main candidates is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of Buhari’s party, the All Progressive Congress (APC). Another is the main opposition leader and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Nigeria’s presidential election has typically been a duel between the ruling and opposition parties, but this year’s vote has a third strong contender, Peter Obi, running under the lesser-known Labor Party.
Tinubu, 70, a former governor of wealthy Nigerian state Lagos, wields significant influence in the southwestern region, where he is hailed as a political godfather and kingmaker.
The wealthy political veteran boasts that he supported Buhari’s election as president on his fourth attempt in 2015, following three unsuccessful bids.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, foreground right, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Nigeria’s ruling party, during a campaign rally.
After decades as a political puppeteer, Tinubu declares that it is now his turn to emerge from the shadows into the presidency; His campaign slogan is “Emily Lokan,” which translates to “My turn” in his native Yoruba language.
However, the ruling party candidate is being dogged by bribery allegations, which he staunchly denies. Critics say he also failed to address concerns about his health convincingly and at times appeared confused and incoherent during the campaign. He’s also done gaffes that have made him the butt of jokes and viral memes on social media.
Tinubu has also come under criticism for abstaining from presidential debates and delegating questions about his manifesto to members of his team when he was recently at British think tank Chatham House.
One of Tinubu’s biggest challenges is the opposition party’s Abubakar, who is running for the sixth time after five previous defeats.
Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), during a campaign rally in Kano, northwestern Nigeria.
Abubakar, 76, who served as vice president from 1999 to 2007, is a staunch capitalist who has made his fortune investing in various sectors across the country. The tycoon has been investigated for corruption in the past. However, he denies any wrongdoing.
Many believe Abubakar’s presidential ambition could usurp an unofficial agreement to rotate the presidency between Nigeria’s northern and southern regions, as he hails from the same northern region as outgoing leader Buhari.
Peter Obi is a two-time former governor of Anambra state who is being touted as a credible alternative to the two main candidates.
Obi avoids the excesses of the typical African Big Man leader. Avoiding a large entourage, he flies economy class and carries his own luggage. His no-frills approach has attracted hordes of supporters, mostly young Nigerians who call themselves Obidient.
Labor Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, center, and his running mate Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, second from left.
Obi is also the only Christian among the frontrunners. Its south-eastern region has not produced a president or vice-president since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999.
The ruling party’s Tinubu, though hails from the country’s religiously mixed south-west, is Muslim and also voted for a Muslim running mate, fueling public anger at his election.
61-year-old Obi, dubbed “Mr. Known as the “miser”, is famous for his frugal approach and is known as “Mr. Clean” of Nigerian politics.
However, his offshore accounts were among those found in the Pandora Papers that revealed the hidden riches of the global elite in 2021. Obi denies any wrongdoing.
Are there elections?
The last two elections have been postponed at short notice and it is feared that the same fate will follow. However, the electoral commission insists there will be no disruption.
Prof Kingsley Moghalu, a political economist and former presidential candidate in the 2019 election, told CNN he expects high turnout “unless it’s stifled by a security collapse of some sort,” he told CNN.
More than 93 million Nigerians are registered to vote, but turnout on Election Day is uncertain, with uncertainty among the top concerns.
Public policy analyst Abideen Olasupo told CNN the uncertainties surrounding this year’s election have put many voters off.
“Nigerian voters are the most distraught and confused voters in the world right now because they are unsure if the election will go ahead; and when it does take place, they are not sure that the process will not be rigged,” Olasupo said.
Citizens have also been disturbed by an attempt to stem vote-buying by rendering old banknotes unusable to prevent renegade politicians from hoarding cash. But there are fears that a shortage of the new naira notes could disrupt the elections themselves.
The electoral body INEC reportedly warned that banks’ inability to distribute enough of the new cash could make it difficult to pay for temp workers and security guards needed to run thousands of polling stations for the February 25 presidential and general elections .
As it stands, the vote will not take place in more than 200 voting units across Nigeria, in places like Imo and Taraba (two of Nigeria’s conflict-prone states), INEC says, over security concerns.
Separatist gangs and marauding gunmen, known locally as bandits, have terrorized parts of the country by kidnapping for ransom.
Elsewhere, other obstacles threaten turnout, as some Nigerians have to collect their permanent voter card (PVC) with less than a week to go before the election.
what are the problems
Co-founder and intelligence chief of data company Stears, Michael Famoroti, told CNN that critical security and economic issues are at the forefront of voters’ minds and could influence their voting decisions.
“Nigerians fall under two buckets: one is insecurity. Overall, however, the main issue Nigerians have to deal with is the economy,” he said, with concerns ranging from poverty to unemployment and politics.
“Cash shortages, fuel shortages…are issues that are likely to be on the top of mind for those who make it to the elections and could arguably influence the votes,” says Famoroti.
Fuel shortages and shortages of the country’s newly designed currency have sparked violent protests in parts of Nigeria as millions struggle to get their hands on new versions of banknotes.
Nigerians expect the eventual winner of the presidential election to jump straight into finding solutions to these problems, including tackling the country’s growing debt profile, oil theft and a controversial petrol subsidy that snubs him the country with the largest oil revenues.
The top three candidates have promised to address some of these issues. The Tinubu of the ruling party vow to create jobs, boost the economy and “erase terror, kidnapping, banditry and violent crime from the face of our nation”.
PDP’s Abubakar touts mantra of ‘restoring Nigeria’ and says he wants ‘Block government waste” by doing a first small governmentto wean the country off the gasoline subsidy and “the center of crude oil refining in Africa.“
Labor Party’s Obi says his government will seek to shift Nigeria’s focus.from consumption to production‘ while determined to ‘fight and significantly reduce corruption’ and create systems to reduce unemployment, insecurity and inflation.
Who is predicted to win?
A predictive poll by Stears puts Obi ahead of the top two challengers in a high turnout scenario. According to the Stears poll, lower turnout will favor Tinubu.
“There was a scenario where we only considered voters who had picked up their PVC… based on that scenario, the Labor Party candidate is the most likely winner,” Famoroti told CNN.
“But then we also estimated a scenario with low voter turnout. The idea is that these are the tougher than hardcore voters and the ones most likely to show up to vote that day. Under this scenario, the APC candidate… emerges victorious,” he added.
Another survey by Lagos-based SBM Intelligence does not envisage a front runner, but suggests that Obi and Abubakar could collect enough ballots to achieve the 25% vote split in 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states required by law, in order to win.
The forecast for the Political Africa Initiative (POLAF) looks different, whose survey surveyed three million people and predicted a close race between the opposition PDP (38%) and the ruling APC (29%).
Obi’s Labor Party is expected to take third place with 27% of the vote.
“This election is extremely difficult to predict,” Moghalu, the political economist, told CNN.
“This is due to the ‘third force’ factor of Labor Party candidate Peter Obi, who has muddled the forecasts of the two traditionally dominant parties, the APC and PDP.
“While many still believe that one of the two will ultimately come out on top, the fact that multiple scientific opinion polls have placed Obi at the top means there’s clearly a possibility of an upset,” says Moghalu.
Moghalu believes Nigerians can vote largely along ethnic and religious lines, as well as traditional party lines.
“The one big factor that is a ‘problem’ and will affect many votes is the hunger for a change of direction that millions of young and middle-age voters have and are supporting Obi for that reason. Will that be enough to move forward? him to victory? That’s the X factor.”