The Jülich Institute for Techno-Economic Systems Analysis model calculation shows that more than 300 terawatt hours of natural gas (about 30 million cubic meters) would have to be saved across Europe this year to fulfill an EU plan presented. in early March, informs “Spiegel”.
EU Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans had declared that EU member states could renounce two-thirds of their gas supplies from Russia by the end of the year and replace them with other sources. At the same time, states must fill their storage facilities to at least 80% of maximum capacity by November – to get through the next winter without Russian gas if needed.
Big cuts needed
According to the Jülich Institute’s model calculations, both goals can only be achieved with significant savings on the part of the industry, as “Spiegel” further reported. As a result, all steel mills, chemical plants or cement plants in the EU would have to be shut off gas by the end of July – and gas plants for most of July.
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This is the only way to reach the EU’s interim target of filling 63 percent of storage tanks by August 1, according to model calculations, according to “Spiegel.” In October, more caps would be needed for the industry to reach the 80% level by November 1st. All this is also based on the optimistic assumption that imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas from other countries could again increase significantly. Numerous countries are currently struggling to rapidly expand their liquefied gas infrastructure, and prices are skyrocketing here as well.
“If the storage tanks are filled to the planned specifications and at the same time deliveries from Russia are reduced to such an extent, this will only be possible with significant restrictions for industry and power plants,” said Jochen Linßen, professor at Forschungszentrum Jülich, the “Spiegel”.
Emergency plans want to secure supplies to private individuals
A conflict is already emerging in the EU over where specific gas savings should be made. The German gas emergency plan foresees, for example, that customers such as private homes or social services such as hospitals have priority. Savings could therefore only be made by companies that need gas for their production or as fuel for power plants. Business representatives, on the other hand, are asking for private end users to be shut down if necessary.
In Austria, with the emergency plan already activated, there is a fundamental possibility of intervention in the gas supply market. The contingency plan comprises three steps that do not need to be called one after the other. Among other things, strict monitoring of the gas market (level 1), a request to industry to reduce gas consumption (level 2) and rationing in the event of insufficient supply (level 3) are foreseen. Also in Austria, the main objective is to ensure that families and small businesses are supplied with gas.
The gas remains the pressure medium
The gas supply is a key lever for Russia in the Ukraine war. A few days ago, Moscow shut off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, explaining that the countries were not meeting payment terms. Poland is now receiving aid from Lithuania and Slovakia, among others, and since autumn through a new gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea, the Baltic Pipe. Brings Norwegian natural gas to Poland. Bulgaria also referred to alternatives to Russia.
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Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister Szymon Szynkowski said his country had “prepared well for this scenario for years” and also had high levels of gas storage facilities. His country has gradually reduced its own dependence on Russian natural gas by about 20% since 2015. Poland has built a terminal for liquefied gas and now produces about 20% of the gas it needs.
Austria’s storage tank is 18% full
Poland’s gas storage facilities are up to 80% full, the EU average is currently only 30%. In Austria, gas storage facilities are particularly understaffed. According to Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler (Greens), 16.7 terawatt-hours of gas are currently stored. This corresponds to a fill level of around 18 percent, with the minister noting that Austria has “very large” storage facilities.
The government announced this week that up to €6.6 billion of the budget will be earmarked to fill gas storage facilities up to 80%. At the same time, Gewessler referred to the “bitter reality”. Dependence on Russia cannot end overnight. “Our country’s natural gas supply depends on Russia. If Russia stops supplying gas, this is a serious threat to our supply.” Currently, there are no signs of supply disruption.