The 49ers have just had their first significant moment of the 2023 offseason, and unfortunately, it bitterly resembles many of the key moments of the 49ers’ 2022 season.
In other words, more quarterback injuries/surgery/recovery/delay drama for the 49ers! I think it’s their brand now.
The news: Brock Purdy’s long-awaited UCL surgery was originally scheduled for today, but as NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero first reported Tuesday night, it has been delayed until at least next month because the elbow is still swelling.
Operations are always worrying. Delays in surgeries are another layer of complications. Purdy’s optimistic timeline for recovery is six months — and that’s only if he only needs ligament repair, not a Tommy John reconstruction, which doctors won’t know until they perform the surgery. Six months from now would stretch to the end of August, the end of training camp, which is already a little problematic for a young QB who has only started five NFL games in the regular season. Delay that for a couple of weeks and… six months from early March to keep Purdy away from full-throttle drills until early September.
I probably don’t need to remind Kyle Shanahan, John Lynch and everyone else involved with the 49ers that week 1 of the 2023 season is scheduled for September 7th. And that schedule is only workable if Purdy doesn’t need a full repair Tommy John surgery. So a tight window for Purdy to make it back to the start of the regular season or even the first month of games got even tighter. And that’s when everything runs pretty perfectly from here.
Of course, all surgeries and recoveries are unique. Shanahan and Lynch have publicly leaned very heavily on the idea that if it’s the less intrusive repair operation, Purdy could probably start tossing in three months and it’s just a ramp-up from there. Maybe it’ll be quick from there and Purdy can get into camp early.
But it also works the other way around, more slowly – and it has already done so with this delay. Meanwhile, Trey Lance’s recovery from his broken ankle in September appears to be going well, with a schedule that likely puts him back on the field for all off-season activity (but maybe not 100 percent). There’s a lot of QB stuff for a team that ran out of QBs in the NFC Championship Game. It is impossible to know how everything will develop.
That’s a very long and new way to get into my annual list of 49ers offseason predictions. I was okay last year except for all that confusion about Jimmy Garoppolo, and this multi-part scenario also seemed to confuse Garoppolo, Shanahan, and Lynch for the most part. The Purdy surgery, the delay and the uncertainty are also making this offseason a bit more unpredictable, but you can only work with the information you have.
OK, so here’s my yearly very important take on this column:
These are predictions, not suggestions. I’m not saying what Shanahan and Lynch should do. (I do this in other columns at other times, and I do this frequently.) In this column, I weigh everything we know about this team, everything Shanahan and Lynch have done over the past few offseasons, and everything that happened in happening in the league – and distilling it down into a few guesses.
Here we go …
Prediction 1: Shanahan won’t seem too relaxed for the next few weeks
As even Lynch noted during their double season ending press conference, Shanahan was clearly going to need to get a lot of sleep very soon. The 2022 season has been incredibly intense with all the comings and goings of the QB. We all saw the toll it took on everyone in the organization in the minutes after the loss in Philadelphia. And in Shanahan’s blunt answers during the press conference with Lynch.
I assume Shanahan has since come to Cabo or San Diego and chilled out a bit with his family. But let’s say the adrenaline spiked again when Shanahan and Lynch heard about the delay in the Purdy operation. I think Shanahan might need to look into finding potential options for veteran QBs. I think he and Lynch will continue to have long conversations about their QB situation and how it balances against their draft pick allocation, salary cap plans and offensive identity.
Unfortunately, I think this could make Shanahan a little nervous again with his media appearances over the next few weeks, whether it’s coming to the combine next week or the owners’ meetings afterwards. By the way, Cranky Kyle doesn’t bother me. I think we get a lot of information from all of the Shanahan variants, and the unfiltered version is often the most insightful. All I’m saying is that he’s usually more tense when the biggest decisions are harder to make, and that could be the case again this spring.
Again, this doesn’t have to be a transformational phase for the franchise. The 49ers are in good shape. This feels like the months following their trip to Super Bowl 54 — the last time they didn’t necessarily have big QB questions and apparently were built to stay deep in the postseason almost no matter what. And that’s the off-season where they seriously considered signing Tom Brady and then made a stunning trade for DeForest Buckner.
so what do you know
This time around, I think Shanahan was stressed because he went through three very different types of QBs in 2022, because his six-year relationship with Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t end warmly, and because he suffered through an NFC championship game without being able to get one Pass to name for most of the second half. And now Shanahan has the stress of Purdy’s belated surgery.
Have the 49ers checked in with Tom Brady yet? (Last year, Brady didn’t retire after 40 days. If he sticks to that schedule, maybe the 49ers will call him on March 12.) Will the 49ers be monitoring Aaron Rodgers’ situation? Can they count on two young QBs, both injured, in 2023 without a reliable experienced QB at their side? That’s stressful. And very important.
Brock Purdy’s surgical setback increases Trey Lance’s options this offseason if his own injury recovery goes well. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Prediction 2: Lance will have a very strong offseason
Last offseason, Shanahan and Lynch set up Lance as QB1, then mainly hoping he would grow into the role after his relatively short collegiate career and one rookie season behind Garoppolo. It didn’t quite last: Lance has impressed everyone in the organization with his leadership skills, but there have been definite struggles to smoothly run Shanahan’s offense throughout training camp and the regular season.
It was notable last August when Lance set up the first-team offense out of the scrum in the middle of camp, but found himself in the wrong place. Hey, you should be here at Pistol, Kyle Juszczyk had to remind Lance. And Lance quickly realigned himself, getting into the snap count and officiating the game. But the timing was all messed up. You can’t confuse a QB about his own spot.
I can’t imagine there being any more moments like this this offseason and at camp. If Lance is healthy and relaxed on offense, I think the 49ers will be very happy with what they see. It will take a lot for Lance to compete with Purdy for the permanent QB1 spot in 2023 after everything Purdy did at the end of last season, but 1) it’s possible if Lance looks great, and 2) Purdy might not be willing to practice or play for a while.
We’ll see how well Lance moves in OTAs in a few months, but he can definitely fit most attitudes and go through all the mental iterations he wants in meetings and on the field. And there was never any doubt about Lance’s character and work ethic.
Also, Purdy had Christian McCaffrey in 100 percent of his games last season. Lance had McCaffrey for zero percent. Now Lance will have an entire off-season to reconcile with McCaffrey and feel how much it helps to have the ultimate bail-out pass catcher on your side. Again, I don’t think Lance Purdy can necessarily be ahead on the unofficial QB depth chart this offseason, but Lance can be far more than just a consolation alternative.
Prediction 3: Garoppolo will sign with an NFC South team (either the Saints or the Buccaneers).
This isn’t exactly a 49ers prediction, as Garoppolo is a free agent, cannot be called a franchise tag by the 49ers, and was publicly sent off by Shanahan. But Garoppolo and the 49ers will always be linked in some way, and I think 49ers executives, coaches and players will have a lot of interest in his next move.
I thought it would have been perfect if Garoppolo had ended up with the Steelers last offseason, and I bet the Steelers think so too now with hindsight. (Another win would have put them in the playoffs. They started five times with Mitch Trubisky.)
But I’m not betting on the Steelers this time. They had their chance.
This offseason, I’m circling the Saints (remember the best game of Garoppolo’s career? At the Saints, Dec. 9, 2019, he threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns in the 49ers’ monumental 48-46 win) and the Buccaneers as the most likely Garoppolo landing sites.
It just feels like Garoppolo is the kind of QB that a defensive-minded coach (like New Orleans’ Dennis Allen or Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles) would appreciate, especially since the limited cap flexibility of these two teams keeps them from top- Market could keep candidates out.
Prediction 3: The 49ers will sign Jacoby Brissett as insurance QB
Due to his close bond with Shanahan from their Atlanta days, I’ve included Matt Ryan as a possible option here. But I don’t know if at 37 and after his odd year at Indianapolis he would enjoy entering the 49ers’ QB room with two very talented youngsters who already hold key positions.
But the 49ers are going to need a pretty polished guy in there, especially after the delay in the Purdy operation. There are just too many question marks about Purdy and Lance at this point. Yes, I’ve repeatedly suggested that they call Brady, and I did it again earlier in this column. But if he really does retire this time, the 49ers need another option.
So I’ll go with Brissett, who’s still only 30 but could do well with a secondary (or third-place?) role on a good team after going 4-7 for the Browns during Deshaun Watson’s suspension last season had started.
The funny thing is that Garoppolo would fit in here just fine again like he was in 2022, except it’s not happening because it was kind of unbelievable that he and the 49ers were willing to do it even last season.
GO DEEPER
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Prediction 4: The 49ers will acquire a healthy DT to replace Javon Kinlaw, although they won’t announce it that way
As exhausted as Shanahan and Lynch were from the effects of last season’s QB injuries, I imagine they were almost as exhausted from having to deal with and deal with Kinlaw’s ongoing knee issues that have resulted in him being in his missed 26 games in three NFL seasons. 24 of them combined in 2021 and 2022.
The 49ers just can’t count on Kinlaw anymore, and counting on him that much in 2022 has taken a lot.
Think of this as a massive, multi-year ripple effect from trading Buckner, who the 49ers wanted to replace with the draft pick they turned into Kinlaw. We know the 49ers did this primarily to add value to Buckner before they had to pay him upwards of $20 million a year (and to use the money saved to re-sign Arik Armstead and Jimmie Ward). That sounded logical.
But three seasons later, as mentioned here by Matt Barrows, the 49ers’ defense is missing in several spots on the inside line. Kinlaw was unable to replace Buckner and never will. Which forced the 49ers to take Armstead off the end and into a quasi-buckner spot and Kinlaw to nose tackle (which meant good nose tackle DJ Jones went to Denver as a free agent last offseason) — but whoops, Neither is Armstead. He’s not as good as Buckner and was injured in 2022. And even if he’s reasonably healthy, Kinlaw isn’t as good as Jones.
So the 49ers have a hole in the middle of their defensive line. It’s amazing that they were #1 in defense (and #2 in yards allowed per rushing attempt) in almost every major category last season. Call that a tribute to Kris Kocurek’s ability to find and train journeymen. But the 49ers need more pressure in the middle. And I don’t think it will ever come from Kinlaw. To that point, the 49ers likely won’t exercise his fifth-year option for 2024, as also reported by Barrows. Which calls into question Kinlaw’s status for 2023 I think.
I don’t think the 49ers will consider releasing Kinlaw before training camp, but if he’s still not healthy enough to get through most drills or if he’s just being beaten by a few other DTs, it might be about time be to call this as a sunk cost.
And I think the 49ers will be going for a very good defensive tackle in the off hand, just as they successfully went for Charvarius Ward as the lead cornerback this past offseason.
I wrote that the lesson of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl win is that winning titles is now all about insult, insult, insult. I think Shanahan and Lynch should definitely spend some money on offense. But I think they might be willing to move away from Kinlaw and if they do they could use a talented big body to replace them.
Could they do something wild like chasing the Eagles’ Javon Hargrave with a mega deal? He had 11 sacks in the 2022 regular season (11 more than Armstead and Kinlaw combined, FYI) and one in the playoffs against the 49ers. Hargrave isn’t young (30 years old) and would probably cost a ton, maybe more than Armstead’s $17 million apiece. When you combine that with Armstead’s current contract and Nick Bosa’s anticipated new monster extension, that would be a lot of money for three defenders. But it’s also just how I think Shanahan and Lynch would want to spend any excess cap space gained from their young QB situation.
The 49ers currently have about $8 million in cap space (via Overthecap.com), which isn’t a lot, but there’s always maneuverability with NFL payrolls. Also, a new Bosa deal would bring that down significantly, as long-term deals almost always allocate money in a way that sets a low cap for the first few years.
Prediction 5: The 49ers will re-sign Mike McGlinchey and Robbie Gould, but not Jimmie Ward
Of course, I’m the guy who predicted they would re-sign Sheeten Tomlinson, Raheem Mostert and Jones last offseason. Incorrect! It never ceases to amaze me at the dollars teams are willing to pay for seasoned free agents each March, and I should also keep in mind that Lynch and Shanahan often don’t hit the market price for their own guys if they don’t think they can they do. re difference maker. That’s probably what the 49ers thought of Tomlinson (crazy money from the Jets), Mostert and Jones (solid money from the Dolphins and Broncos, respectively) last offseason.
I just can’t imagine McGlinchey getting $15-17 million a year from anyone, but I seem to be in the minority on that score. I really didn’t think Tomlinson would get $13 million last year. McGlinchey is young (28), he’s great in the dressing room, he can move. Maybe another team is throwing him really big money. Young launch devices do not often come to market. If that happens, I don’t think the 49ers will go that high. They also have Colton McKivitz who could switch to proper tackle.
But I’ll stick to my initial thoughts: The 49ers will value McGlinchey more than any other team and will get him back for something in the $9 million to $12 million a year range (much more than I estimated earlier this season, I’ll admit). I think Robbie Gould will, as he usually does, flirt with retiring or leaving, but re-sign with the 49ers last year. And I think they’ve already made the long-term decision for Ward when they kept him on the slots corner last season, even though he’s been vocal about wanting to play it safe. Some team will happily pay him top security money, Ward will leave and the 49ers will have to find a new slot corner.
GO DEEPER
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Prediction 6: The 49ers will call up multiple offensive linemen on their first picks
It seems like he could play forever, but Trent Williams turns 35 in July, and left tackle isn’t a position for anyone to fill. Maybe the 49ers can count on interior outfitters Spencer Burford, Aaron Banks and Jake Brendel going forward, but maybe not. You’ll know about McGlinchey and the right tackle spot before the draft, but you really can always use depth in tackles or depth anywhere on the offensive line.
Also, mid-draft teams can get solid offensive linemen, which is good for the 49ers as they currently have no choice until #99, the first of their three third-round compensation picks.
The 49ers will likely end defensively with one of their top picks, but I think they’ll pick at least two offensive linemen over the course of their 10-pick allotment.
Prediction 7: The 49ers won’t seriously consider trading Deebo Samuel, but they could do some groundwork for the next offseason
There has been speculation recently that the Patriots were considering a trade for Deebo. Who knows. Teams are meant to explore everything, and while the 49ers have very little intention of trading Deebo this offseason (and it would be a huge dead-cap hit if they did), you can’t control what other teams do think or gossip about it. Brandon Aiyuk will be re-signed relatively soon, and the 49ers may not be interested in having two WRs near the top of the pay scale in the future.
But no one offered the 49ers enough for Deebo after last season when he asked for a trade (before he landed his big new deal) and he was just off a career season. He’s still very valuable to the 49ers – why would they even consider trading him unless they get something even more valuable in return? Which I don’t think is possible after Deebo missed four games and caught 56 passes for 632 yards and 42 rushes for 232 yards (compared to his 2021 totals of 77 catches for 1,405 yards and 59 rushes for 365 yards).
At some point, though, it becomes difficult to keep all of those expensive offensive players on the payroll for too long when they’re all going into or past their prime. Williams, McCaffrey, George Kittle and Juszczyk are at or near the top of the NFL pay scale in their pay positions. Deebo is Top 8 at WR. Aiyuk is expected to be in the top 10-15 when he gets his new deal.
I think the 49ers might see McCaffrey and Deebo as slightly duplicating. It’s great to have them both but do you want to pay them both beyond next season at the top of the market given the risk of injury, a drop in performance or both for such strong playmakers?
The 49ers have both already budgeted for 2023. McCaffrey’s cap number is $12 million in 2023. Deebo’s is only $8.6 million. But Deebo’s cap number will jump to $28.6 million in 2024 when he turns 29. The 49ers can crush that number with an overtime guaranteeing him more money, but would the 49ers really want to sign more for him heading into his 30s?
They are not trading with Deebo this off-season. But we heard a little beep and could hear more from them because I think teams are now testing the 49ers’ thinking in preparation for something potentially bigger next offseason.
GO DEEPER
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(Top Photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)