The Kansas City Chiefs’ title defense has already begun. The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills are preparing their best counterattacks while making key contract-renewal decisions before the free hand, and the NFC’s top two teams — the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers — have several assistant coaches to replace. The rest of the league is either desperate for an off-season splash or eager to rebuild. It’s time for The Ringers first NFL power rankings of the 2023 offseason:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl LVIII odds, via FanDuel: +600)
Last time I checked, the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, so yeah, they’re the best team in the NFL.
2. Cincinnati Bengal (+900)
Tight end Hayden Hurst and four defensive starters (Vonn Bell, Eli Apple, Jessie Bates III and Germaine Pratt) are slated to become free agents. Joe Burrow and wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are up for contract extensions. To continue to compete with Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC, the Bengals need to be near perfect in how they spend their money this offseason.
3. Buffalo Tickets (+850)
Josh Allen’s cap hit jumps from 7.8 percent of the Bills’ payroll in 2022 to 17.4 percent in 2023, setting the roster build for the Bills, who have multiple starters on expiring contracts (including linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, running back Devin Singletary , and safety Jordan Poyer) and other roster holes to fill. As in Cincinnati, the margin for error is thinning in Buffalo. Any flaw in the draft or bloated contract potentially widens the rift between Buffalo and Kansas City.
4. Philly Eagles (+900)
The Eagles need to reload quickly this offseason. Both their offensive and defensive coordinators are now head coaches elsewhere, and only five of the 15 defensive players who played 10 or more snaps in the Super Bowl are signed for 2023. Head coach Nick Sirianni and much of the team’s star power, particularly Jalen Hurts, wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, offensive linemen Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, and edge rusher Haason Reddick are going nowhere, but GM Howie Roseman has this offseason work to be done again to ensure the Eagles continue to have one of the best top-to-bottom rosters in the league.
5. San Francisco 49ers (+900)
The upcoming contest between QBs Trey Lance and Brock Purdy is set to turn heads this offseason, but making sure the 49ers still have an elite defense following the departure of defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans could be more important to take next to fight for a Super Bowl year. First agenda: Sign Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa to potentially record-breaking new contract
6. Baltimore Ravens (+1600)
The addition of Todd Monken as the Ravens’ new offensive coordinator is huge for Lamar Jackson, whose contract status will be Baltimore’s greatest offseason history. Jackson has an athleticism and momentum that can eclipse his abilities as a dropback passer, and Monken, a significant upgrade over former OC Greg Roman, should help develop downfield passing concepts that are influenced by RPOs and play -Action independent. He is supposed to help Jackson and the Passing Game take a big step forward.
7. Dallas Cowboys (+1500)
The first thing the Cowboys need to do this offseason is figure out Ezekiel Elliott’s untenable contract. Can you trade him? Will Elliott take a pay cut to stay? The answer to these questions will help the Cowboys determine if they can keep Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz and how much cash they will have available to bolster a reception group that has been short of juice in 2022.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500)
As a result of their free-hand spending spree a year ago, the Jaguars go into the offseason 30th on the available cap, currently $32.8 million over the cap, according to Spotrac. They’ll have to get creative to improve their list in March and April, but their bottom remains high as long as Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson are at the top.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (+2000)
Bottom line, the Chargers are a playoff contender as long as Justin Herbert is under center. He’s one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL, but his best may still be ahead of him with a move from Joe Lombardi to Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator. I worry about cheering the Chargers up for what feels like their 100th straight offseason, but if there’s any reason to revisit that path, it’s Herbert.
10.Miami Dolphins (+3000)
Tua Tagovailoa recently said that he does not worry about his health at all ahead of the next season and even takes weekly judo classes to learn how to fall better to reduce his risk of future concussions. Despite his optimism, it’s hard to get excited about Tagovailoa’s long-term health and, with it, the Dolphins’ long-term offensive prospects after a scary 2022. For Miami’s defense, it will be interesting to see the impact of new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on both the roster and the roster this offseason.
11. New York Giants (+4000)
Assuming the Giants write some hefty checks to re-sign quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley, GM Joe Schoen will have to pull off a master class in maximizing remaining resources to retool the rest of the roster. The receiving and linebacker corps are among the worst in the NFL, the secondary could lose starting safety Julian Love to free agency, and the inside offensive line remains a mess. The Giants were a playoff team last season — and with such a poor roster, it’s no wonder Brian Daboll was voted Coach of the Year — but they need to field a much better team this year to be competitive in the NFC to stay.
12. Seattle Seahawks (+6000)
I’d be shocked if Geno Smith doesn’t sign a multi-year deal with the Seahawks before free agency begins in mid-March. Smith was one of the top 12 quarterbacks in the league in 2022, and he’s clearly the Seahawks’ best option for 2023 and beyond. Seattle also has four top-60 picks in the 2023 NFL draft and currently has more than $30 million in available cap space, leaving the Seahawks poised to grab a legitimate run for the division crown next year should San Francisco slip .
13. Detroit Lions (+2500)
Retaining offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was a significant win for the Lions this offseason. His offense ended last season third in expected points per drive and fifth in points per game. Defensively, Detroit really turned things around in the second half of the season, jumping from 32nd in points per game allowed (26.6) in Weeks 1-9 to 19th (21.2) in Weeks 10-18. The second and third layers of defense are still in the works, and they have a big QB question this offseason, but the arrow is pointing up at Motown.
14. Minnesota Vikings (+4000)
It’s common knowledge by now that the Vikings of 2022 were never as good as their regular-season record suggested and now they appear primed for a step backwards in 2023. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off his least efficient season since 2018, and Minnesota’s defense finished at 29 points per game allowed — no wonder they replaced defensive coordinator Ed Donatell with Brian Flores.
15. Green Bay Packers (+3500)
Until we know if Aaron Rodgers will be a Packer in 2023, this team is hard to categorize. If Rodgers returns, they’ll be a top 15 team in the NFL. If he doesn’t, they could be in the top five worst.
16. Cleveland Browns (+3500)
In their 11 games without active Deshaun Watson (Weeks 1-12), the Browns ranked fifth in offensive EPA per drive. They finished 27th in their six games with Watson. But the Browns are committed to Watson for the foreseeable future, so they’ll have to spend this offseason figuring out how to both improve their roster around him and make him more viable as their leader on the field.
17 Pittsburgh Steelers (+5000)
The Steelers are certainly pleased with the way 2022 first-round pick QB Kenny Pickett ended the season — he’s gone 5-1 in his last six games and finished eighth among starts in the EPO via dropback. That’s not to say Pickett has completely overcome the limitations that keep him 34th in Steven Ruiz’s quarterback rankings, but there’s something to build on here.
18 Denver Broncos (+3500)
The Broncos have signed a new head coach in Sean Payton, have an expensive quarterback who was ineffective last season and need to replace rising defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. I’m optimistic that Payton will start fixing all the things that went wrong for the Broncos and Russell Wilson last season. Whatever talent is left in Wilson, Payton will bring it out. And if completely dislodging the Broncos from last place in the AFC West isn’t enough, Payton should have the skills, time and resources to eventually fix the team.
19. New York Jets (+2500)
The Jets are considered one of the most active teams in the veteran QB market, whether that means making a splashy trade for Rodgers or signing a free agent like Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo. Just getting competent and consistent QB play should make the Jets a playoff contender next season. If they can’t land one of those big fish and have to run it back with Zach Wilson or even floating free agent Mike White, the Jets will have heartbreak all over again.
20 Los Angeles Rams (+3000)
I’m probably too low on the Rams, who won a Super Bowl a little over a year ago. Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp, cornerback Jalen Ramsey and defensive tackle Aaron Donald are all returning in 2023. While the Rams still have work to do to surround their stars with more quality this offseason, the road back to The Strife isn’t as far off as their 5-12 record set in 2022 might suggest.
21st New England Patriots (+5500)
The Matt Patricia-Joe Judge experiment didn’t work on the Patriots’ offense in 2022, so now Bill Belichick is bringing back another old friend, Bill O’Brien, to coach Mac Jones in 2023. The good news is that O’Brien, unlike Patricia, has extensive experience making offensive play calls. The bad news for the Patriots is that Jones is still a limited passer with a below-par group of players with offensive ability around him.
22nd Tennessee Titans (+7500)
The Titans were one of the most disappointing teams of the second half of 2022, and while Tennessee has top-end talent in running back Derrick Henry, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and safety Kevin Byard, this team still feels they have a relative low ceiling due to boring QB play and a thin wide receiver group. The number one thing to watch for in Tennessee as the offseason begins is whether Ryan Tannehill could be on the move.
23rd Saint of New Orleans (+3500)
Whether the Saints re-sign Jameis Winston or pick Derek Carr or another mid-of-the-pack QB, they’re in bad shape. They only have three top 100 picks and minus $46 million in caps for GM Mickey Loomis to work with. Perhaps the best-case scenario for the Saints in 2023 is to reset the roster, get their cap back in order, lose a few games, and position themselves as a top quarterback for 2024.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (+4000)
The Raiders’ best way out of the dark right now is through the dark. Trading a ton of assets to Green Bay to reunite Rodgers with Davante Adams in Las Vegas is the fastest way to compete in the AFC West. Would this blockbuster trade blow them up? Definitive. But the blast wouldn’t be nearly as bad as extending Josh McDaniels’ tether into the distant future by picking a rookie quarterback into the top 10 of the April draft.
25. Chicago Bears (+6500)
No team in the NFL has more available cap space than the Bears as the 2023 offseason begins. They need to spend as much of it as possible to add talent on both sides of the ball and position Justin Fields to fight for a playoff bid. Any rumors of a Fields trade? secure. But the best way forward is building a playoff-competitive roster with Fields, not without.
26. Carolina Panther (+5500)
The Panthers are massive winners in the head coaching hiring cycle. The landing of Frank Reich was just the beginning; That Reich added Evero as defensive coordinator and both Dom Capers and Jim Caldwell as senior assistants is essentially a Harlem Globetrotter dunking display. The Panthers still need a significant upgrade at quarterback, but their trajectory is like Ja Morant with Flubber shoes.
27. Atlanta Falcons (+7500)
The Falcons had their lowest preseason aggregate win last season (4.5), but they surpassed that by more than two games, largely due to Arthur Smith’s ability to plan offense for Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder and improved play from the offensive line. Will the Falcons try to improve QB? Or should they focus their off-season efforts on improving the squad for Ridder?
28. Tampa Bay Privateers (+7500)
A teary-eyed selfie video on the beach (and subsequent thirst) signaled the end of Tom Brady in Tampa. He leaves behind a big quarterback question (Kyle Trask is the only quarterback currently signed for 2023) and a team with big roster issues as he has a host of veterans like defensemen William Gholston, Akiem Hicks, Lavonte David, Jamel Dean and Mike Edwards, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Keanu Neal, Logan Ryan and Anthony Nelson — all of whom played more than 400 defensive snaps for the Bucs in 2022 — go to free agency. Oh, and the Bucs have an NFL-worst minus — $55.9 million in cap. This is a fundamental rebuilding year for the Buccaneers.
29. Washington Commanders (+5500)
Whoever buys the Commanders will be taking on a fixer upper. Her pick for the 2022 fifth round is Sam Howell expects to open the season as a starter (but he got a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy), and two key defensive players (Daron Payne and Cole Holcomb) are on expiring contracts.
30. Arizona Cardinals (+18000)
Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill said new head coach Jonathan Gannon is the best fit for the franchise because of his vision.Elite quarterbackHowever, Gannon won’t have an elite quarterback for some time. Kyler Murray is still in the early stages of his recovery after tearing his cruciate ligament and meniscus in December could be sidelined until halfway through next season.
31. Indianapolis Colts (+18000)
Moving on from Jeff Saturday and hiring the better of the two available Eagles coordinators in Shane Steichen is a huge win for Indianapolis. Steichen orchestrated one of the most impressive offenses in all of football in 2022; The Colts, meanwhile, finished the season 31st in offensive EPA per game. The big question now is who will play quarterback for Steichen and which wild tweet owner Jim Irsay will send about a possible draft board trade.
32. Houston Texans (+20000)
I like the hiring of DeMeco Ryans as head coach and Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator, and the Texans should pick either Bryce Young or CJ Stroud in the draft. All of this news means the mood in Houston is upbeat for now. But the reality is that this will likely be a long rebuild for the Texans; At least Ryan’s should have time for that.