SÃO PAULO ― The town of Bachmuta Ukrainianheld enclave in the breakaway province Donetskbecame the front line of the war in Ukraine clashes between troops have occurred almost daily for the past month Kyiv it’s from Moscow. Despite the immense firepower used in the clashes and the unknown death toll, little has changed in the region after weeks of fighting which could be a trend for the second year of the war.
This report is part of the special series of Estao about the first year of the war. Over the next few days, the newspaper’s reporting will focus on Brazil’s role in the war, the conflict’s prospects for the future, the arsenals of the two countries involved in the fighting, and the drama of the refugees.
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In September, the Ukraine started the last major military campaign of the conflictwhich led to the resumption Kharkiv It is Kherson, and pushed Russian troops into the Donbass provinces. The advance lost strength Donetskat which the The Russian army and proRussian separatists regrouped and reinforced their ranks with recruits and mercenaries, which significantly increases the number of available contingents.
Current war dynamics drew comparisons to World War I, known as trench warfare, due to the dominance of defensive positions and low troop mobility. The scenario also draws attention to a clash between increasing numbers of Russian troops, who rely heavily on infantry, and Ukraine’s increasingly betterarmed NATOweapons military.
In January, the Ukrainian President Volodmir Zelenskyyhe turned to his allies in the NATO to ask for war tanks to be sent, claiming that they were the only tool capable of breaching the Russian blockade. At the same time, Moscow’s orders were to take whatever action it could against rivals on the other side of the line, taking the risk. The cost is not clear as there are no sources that accurately measure the number of combat deaths. but advances to conquer Soledar and other small towns and surround Bakhmut .
“It’s not that [Vladimir] Putin is inspired by Stalingrad. He uses the same tactics. It’s a human wave. He smothers the enemy with the corpses of Russian soldiers. We see that in Bakhmut, a typical Stalinist strategy but almost like the first. war too. Soldiers are being sent with no artillery, no armored support, and no air support, and Ukrainians trying to save their country are mowing down Russian soldiers with better equipment and technology,” said historian Leon Aron, director of Russian studies at American Enterprise Institutes.
The current dynamic has taken a heavy toll on both sides of the frontline. In addition to casualties from frequent fighting, Ukraine consumes a quantity of ammunition that NATO says exceeds its production capacity. A set of war supplies out Latin America came into consideration ― the Ukrainian Chancellor Dmitro Kuleba, even declared at a conference with Latin American journalists that he was preparing a specific foreign policy strategy for the region ― but countries are reluctant to get involved in the conflict.
Sounds also echo from the Russian lines, although the Kremlin has a tight grip on information about its military actions. Soldiers have defected to European Union countries in recent months, while mercenary group leader Wagner, Eugeni Prigozhinan ally of the President Wladimir Putinentered into an open dispute with military authorities in Moscow over disagreements over the Bakhmut offensive.
“The chief of staff and the defense minister are giving orders everywhere not only not to supply ammunition to the Wagner paramilitary group, but also not to help with the airlift. There is a frontal opposition that is nothing more than an attempt at destruction [o grupo] Wagner. It can be compared to treason at a time when Wagner is fighting for it [conquistar] Bakhmut and suffers hundreds of victims every day,” Prigozhin said in an audio broadcast by Telegram on Tuesday, April 21.
The Russian Defense Ministry responded in a statement with a detailed list of ammunition stocks handed over to Russian “volunteers,” as the Wagner group is known, and denounced it as “absolutely wrong” that stocks are running out. On Wednesday 22nd, the leader of the mercenary group called on the Russian people to demand more weapons from the military in a country where any opposition to the government or the army is usually repressed.
However, the dissonance between army and mercenaries should not detract from the capabilities of the Russian war machine. According to Professor Mariana Kalil of the Superior School of War, given the increasing presence of paramilitaries, Moscow seems to have found a certain balance in the composition of the troops present in Ukraine.
“The presence of military personnel does not mean the absence of paramilitaries or mercenaries, also because of the tactical role of each. An army tends to be slower than a group of mercenaries, and each tends to serve a different type of mission. The numerical presence of the two types of troops only shows that Russia intends to stay longer in Ukraine as it raises the profile of the Russian presence in the country,” he stated.
Uncertain goals, ongoing conflicts
The Chancellor spoke at the conference with Latin American journalists last week Dimitro Kuleba compared the chances of a military victory for Ukraine with the wars of independence in the Americas in the 19th century Estao about the possibility of victory on the battlefield and possible paths to a diplomatic solution.
“If only we had the opportunity to ask the leaders of the wars of independence in Latin America the same question. They would say yes it can be won although the enemy is much stronger and some believe our chances are very slim. We will win because we fight for the right cause and we know how to win. And my answer is the same,” said the Chancellor.
“Most of this victory is won on the battlefield. But of course diplomacy will also play a role,” concluded Kuleba.
The military focus in the speech by the head of Ukraine’s diplomatic service increases analysts’ likelihood that the conflict is still far from a resolution, especially given the ambiguity in Russia’s and Ukraine’s goals at this point in the war.
“Putin never defined [o que é] win, but I don’t think his goal right now is to lose. I don’t see a longterm goal. What exists are daily tactical targets to keep the military campaign going until the West gets tired of backing Ukraine and pressuring it to accept Russia’s terms,” Leon Aron said.
“I believe that the West’s goal is a reflection of the Russian goal: to exhaust Russia in order to create favorable conditions for Ukraine,” he added.
According to Professor Mariana Kalil, all peace negotiations go through the notion of “conflict maturity”, that is, when the two sides involved are already tired of the struggle and are more willing to accept certain unfavorable conditions in order to achieve peace.
“We have elements that show that the war in Ukraine will continue for a long time, that the fatigue, the weariness, the maturity of the conflict, so that there is political will on both sides to negotiate and withdraw, can last a long time, ” he said.