Guards Timo Könönen and Risto Laitinen and German shepherd Hilma patrol the Finnish-Russian border near Niirala, Finland. (Juho Kuva/for the Washington Post)
NIIRALA, Finland — Two Finnish border guards glide through a narrow cut in a tall pine forest, their skis tracing a line along a still-frozen border.
Today the line marks the quiet but closely guarded border between Russia and Finland. It could soon mark the border between Russia and the world’s most powerful military alliance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the possibility of NATO expansion as justification for his unprovoked attack on Ukraine. Now the brutal war seems poised to bring NATO right to its doorstep.
Any day, Finland and Sweden — European Union countries that remain militarily non-aligned — are expected to apply to join the 30-strong coalition. NATO and US officials said they were welcomed.
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This historical shift is an early sign of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending post-Cold War Europe’s security architecture and reshaping world maps in ways that will be felt for decades to come.
Finland’s accession would double NATO’s land border with Russia. The two new members would bring the full force of the alliance to the far north and strengthen an increased presence around the Baltic Sea.
NATO, the United States and the EU are now plotting the long-term isolation of Russia, marking the return of Cold War-style containment after years of coexistence and cooperation.
“This is one of those moments in European history,” said Alexander Stubb, former Prime Minister of Finland. “What we see here is the semi-permanent division of Europe in two.”
On the one hand, he said, you have an aggressive, authoritarian Russia and its war partner Belarus. On the other hand, you have more than 30 democracies more or less united by a common enemy.
“It’s all going to be a military-strategic arena now, especially if you look at it from the Russian side,” said Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council.
“Putin miscalculated,” she said. “He didn’t foresee that.”
Finland is nearing NATO membership
In a way, this sea change in European security is least surprising in Finland, the country whose anger and concern at Putin’s actions hastened the shift.
In the eight decades since Finnish soldiers on skis helped repel the Soviet invaders, the country joined the EU in 1995 and became a close NATO partner while still trying to engage and understand Russia. But she never lost sight of the border.
Tomi Timonen, deputy chief of the Niirala Border Patrol Station, said those who live and work in the area are outraged by Putin’s war but not surprised. The people here know Russia, he said. “Like all Finns, we are on the go.”
Scenes from Ukraine bring back painful memories for Finland.
In the Winter War of 1939-1940, the country fought back against the Soviets, but suffered greatly, losing people and territory. Since then, the country has focused intensely on defense, said Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert and adviser to the centre-right National Coalition party. “It comes from our collective memory,” he said.
The capital, Helsinki, began building shelters for civil defense in the 1940s. A facility from the 1960s, designed to protect up to 9,000 people from shelling and chemical attacks, will initially serve as a parking lot. The city also has shelters that are used as a sports center, swimming pool and ice rink – but can be ready in 72 hours for emergencies.
Tomi Rask, a preparedness specialist at the Helsinki Rescue Agency, said footage of the devastating shelling in Ukraine, including people sheltering in makeshift shelters, has rekindled interest in civil defense.
The focus on readiness extends to the military. Finland maintains a system of compulsory conscription for men and voluntary conscription for women. The country can muster a war force of 280,000 soldiers and around 900,000 reservists.
“We never dismantled the military after the Cold War; we have invested in it,” said Kai Sauer, Finland’s State Secretary for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
“There is a very high willingness to defend the country,” he said. “It may sound old-fashioned, but it is a consequence of our history and geographic location.”
NATO officials and defense analysts described the Finnish armed forces as robust and relatively well funded. Shortly before invading Ukraine, Finland completed the purchase of 64 F-35 fighters from US defense giant Lockheed Martin.
On the island of Santahamina inside Helsinki, the army trains troops in urban warfare and puts lanky conscripts through intense drills. On a sunny April afternoon, she observed Ari Helenius, a battalion commander who served with NATO forces in Kosovo.
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Finnish soldiers have been working with NATO since the 1990s. Both Finland and Sweden contributed to missions in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq. Both forces are highly interoperable with NATO forces.
The country intensified cooperation with NATO after Russia annexed Crimea, but Finland officially remained militarily non-aligned. The Finns felt safer outside the alliance.
Putin’s all-out attack on Ukraine changed that practically overnight. A majority of Finns now believe they would be safer within NATO.
“If Putin can slaughter his Slavic brothers, sisters and cousins in Ukraine, then nothing prevents him from doing the same in Finland,” former Prime Minister Stubb said.
Helenius said the situation in Ukraine is keeping young conscripts busy. “As career soldiers, it’s our job to tell them not to worry,” he said.
Ukraine is also in the consciousness of the general public. Meri Leppänen, public information officer for the Guard Jaeger Regiment stationed on the island, said the war has reminded the country “why we do what we do”.
Firing rifles and anti-tank weapons so close to town used to cause noise complaints, she said. No one has called her since February 24 to complain about noisy military training.
Jaakko Toropainen, a retired truck driver, said he used to be neutral about NATO membership, but the invasion changed his thinking.
His uncle was killed in the Winter War and the country lost a lot, he said. Finland needs “all the help it can get” to prevent something like this from happening again.
At the moment, he said, “I just hope the other side doesn’t do anything stupid.”
At the Vaalimaa border crossing, a few hours outside of Helsinki, the change in Finland’s relationship with Russia is already visible.
Not long ago, the checkpoint was jammed with trucks, travelers and cross-border shoppers heading to outlet malls – symbols of how Europe stayed connected to Russia despite the invasion of Georgia, the annexation of Crimea and everything else.
Thanks to the pandemic and the war, a few hundred people are now arriving daily at a crossing built for thousands, according to Captain Jussi Pekkala, chief of the Vaalimaa border crossing. A few Russians with EU-approved vaccines still visit, and the occasional van rumbles by, but parking lots are empty and Zsar Outlet Village looks quiet. The guards greet EU citizens leaving Russia and Ukrainians fleeing the war.
Traffic rebound seems unlikely. Although NATO membership does not affect border policy, most people seem to accept that joining NATO would likely usher in a new era of division between the West and Russia, somewhat reminiscent of the Cold War.
An open question is whether Finland and Sweden are aiming for NATO membership at the same time. Sweden has so far moved less quickly than Finland, but most analysts believe they will find a way to coordinate. The thought, Wieslander said, is that if Russia wants revenge, “it’s better if it happens once.”
Moscow has warned of unspecified “consequences,” saying it will deploy nuclear weapons in the Baltics as NATO grows. But European officials and analysts have largely downplayed these threats, noting that Russia already has nuclear weapons within reach.
Janne Kuusela, director of defense policy at Finland’s defense ministry, said he doesn’t expect Russian planners to make major changes to the country’s stance.
“It wouldn’t really be a big change in Russian military calculations,” he said. Rather, the NATO initiative is “a blow to their self-esteem, to their dignity, because they’ve been saying for a long time that they don’t want that.”
State Secretary Sauer said Finland is watching out for hybrid or stealthy attacks. “All I can say is that we are prepared,” he said.
He sees the stalemate lasting. “Our foreign and security challenge is to have a workable coexistence with Russia, and we have seriously tried to find ways of coexistence and cooperation,” he said.
“Due to Russian aggression, the situation has changed,” he continued. “It will take time to find a way out.”