Most Western politicians expected the war to end quickly and Ukraine to capitulate within days. A few hours after the start of the invasion on February 24, 2022, Russian troops landed on an airfield north of Kiev. They must quickly take the Ukrainian capital. But in one day, the Russian elite paratroopers are eliminated and the airstrip is destroyed.
A radio message that also went down on the first day of the war is emblematic of the Ukrainians’ spirit of resistance. Russian troops want to take control of Snake Island in the Black Sea and ask for surrender. One Ukrainian’s response: “Russian warship, fuck you!” The phrase later even adorned a stamp. At the end of June, Russian troops need to clean up Snake Island again. The advance to Kiev also stalled.
As early as March, Moscow was redefining its war objectives. The Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Donbass will be completely “liberated”. Pro-Russian separatists have been fighting the Ukrainian army since 2014. Russia deploys its superior artillery. To the south, the port city of Mariupol is an important target of conquest. The Red Cross describes the three-month siege as hell. Civilians and soldiers are the last to stand at the massive Azovstal Steelworks. This too becomes a symbol of resistance.
Pride of the Sunken Fleet
Mariupol and the Sea of Azov are separated from Ukraine, and Russia never gains control over the Black Sea and its metropolis, Odessa. Ukraine still manages to sink the “Moskva”, pride of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
But Mariupol also represents the horrors against civilians. Russian troops destroy a basement theater where families have taken shelter. Satellite photos show that “Children” was written on the ground in huge letters in front of the building to avoid the bombing. The mass graves in Bucha, near Kiev, discovered after the withdrawal of Russian troops, also caused international horror. Almost all of the 450 victims are civilians. Mass graves with civilians were also discovered elsewhere, such as in Izyum in September.
A month earlier, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive in the Kherson region, to the south, opposite Crimea. The peninsula was annexed by Russia in 2014 and is the main base for its Black Sea Fleet. In October, a serious explosion occurs on the bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland.
In the east, Ukraine starts its counter-offensive in early September, while attention is still on the south. There Ukrainian soldiers are advancing rapidly. In the Kharkiv region, they make surprising gains and recapture the only rail junction that supplies the Russian frontline through northeastern Ukraine.
Added, not paralyzed
Russia reacted with a partial mobilization, hundreds of thousands of reservists were called up. However, it is expected to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River in November.
Moscow retaliates by bombing civilian infrastructure in Ukraine; in winter the electricity goes out. Ukrainians must freeze and fray. Thanks in part to Wagner’s notorious mercenary group, the strategically important city of Bakhmut in the east must be conquered. At the same time, tensions are growing between Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Ministry of Defense in Moscow.
Now Russia wants to conquer Bachmut first, then Kramatorsk. The Donetsk region would then be lost to Ukraine. Looking forward to deliveries of major battle tanks from the West; The German Leopard 2 and British Challenger 2 are to be deployed in March, and the US has pledged a battalion. From ammunition to drones and air defense, there is a huge need. If supplies from EU and NATO countries run out, Ukraine will lose the war.
Up to 60,000 Russian soldiers died or were taken prisoner. But the Kremlin can still mobilize millions. Sanctions have hit the Russian arms industry, but not crippled it. Russia uses abroad, buys Iranian drones. On the anniversary of the start of the war, almost a fifth of Ukrainian territory is occupied (red).