FROM OUR MOSCOW REPORT “It was the strong and clear speech of a man who, despite international media opinion, is still very self-confident”. As every year since 2002, Evgheniy Minchenko, director of the Moscow University Research Center for Political Elites, owner of the political and media consulting company named after him, was among the guests of Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Federal Assembly. On some of these occasions he had taken care of the communication of the event. “Once again, it was interesting for me to observe the President up close and the reactions of those who listened to him.”
What impression did it make on you?
“He was energetic and lively. This was also reflected in the reactions of the public. This time it wasn’t just the content that counted, but the big picture. When I spoke to regional governors, deputies and ministers in the corridors after the report, everyone agreed that Putin is in good physical and mental shape.
What do you think of his speech?
«An hour and a half full of improvisations, because you could tell that he often added something while the common thread was unfolding. Always with a safe and solid appearance. A not insignificant signal for the country’s political class and elites.”
What signal did he want to send?
“That we are ready for a long conflict with the West. A general clash, both military and economic. Putin didn’t even try to find points of convergence with the Western narrative of today’s situation. In my opinion, as he has repeatedly stated, he has completely lost confidence in the American and European leaders. For this reason, it has launched an extremely ambitious economic program aimed at so-called technological sovereignty.
Are the internal resources sufficient?
“That’s the biggest problem. Because the ambitious military and economic goals and the increase in social benefits require a significant financial outlay. But one of Putin’s new sources highlighted it sharply in the post by patriotic businessmen. In short, what he wants to make of the oligarchs”.
Was the invitation to the rich who left the country an order?
“I think Putin is trying to consolidate the nation. And I know he still regards the departed as our citizens. In this complex situation, we cannot afford a major internal split or the loss of capital. What we heard from Putin was not an announcement of tough action, but an invitation to unleash internal potential.”
So it was an appeal to Anatoly Chubais and the other oligarchs who fled abroad: are you going back?
“Exactly. And contribute with your finances, which are certainly not small».
Will Putin’s influence on the elites remain strong?
«In fact, I think that it has grown over the last year precisely because of the special military operation. In February 2022, during the Security Council meeting, we all saw that the decision on Ukraine was made by a very, very small circle. Even some members of the Council were not aware of it.’
Is he the only one who decides?
«Putin remains the main center, the fulcrum in the adoption of each and every decision. The chain of command with associated proxies is also very short. Sergey Chemezov and Dmitry Medvedev oversee the defense industrial complex, Igor Sechin – the hydrocarbon and energy complex, Arkady Rotenberg – construction, Nikolai Patrushev – global security. And in the end it all comes down to his judgement.
Are the rumors of a possible change at the top just a western hope?
“There is no concrete reason to speak of a successor to Putin who appears to be in excellent physical and mental health. For now, the only conceivable scenario is his re-nomination in the 2024 elections.”
The decision to suspend Russia’s membership of the New START treaty seems to have taken everyone by surprise. Is that so?
“After the announcement, I didn’t see much enthusiasm in the room. Sure, everyone applauded, some stood up. But there weren’t many, to be honest. When such sweeping solutions are announced, it takes time to weigh the pros and cons. Many were not immediately happy because it is clear that it is the potential trigger of a new spiral of escalation, a symbolic gesture. Of course, I confirm that it was a great surprise for those present».
His verdict?
“A very worrying signal for everyone.”
What awaits us in the near future?
“Putin showed in his speech that he is ready for a long fight, he believes that our country is too. However, there was still some wiggle room as he didn’t indicate a precise line behind which our offensive could end».
Has Russia actually declared a new Cold War on the West?
“No, I have to correct this. The Cold War has been going on for a long time.”